Here is an e-mail chain I've been having with a friend of mine today: Its basically a layout of our discussion about a hand his friend had. I'd love to put you guys to work and see what you think and if Eugene and my rationale are legit.

Eugene: In fact, Jeff and I had a long discussion
about a hand he played a few nights ago where he was holding JJ on the
button of a 50/100 game, but the stakes shouldn't matter.

One middle position limper. Jeff raises. SB three bets. Limper cold calls
2 bets. Jeff caps.

Flop is: A, A, 3 rainbow

sb bets, limper calls.

What should Jeff do?

We had a nice little debate.

I'd like to hear your opinions.

Afterwards I will share the remainder of the turn and my opinion of the
flop.


Me:In this situation I'm folding. You need more information.

You could raise and iIf you get reraised you're probably against trips and can fold at the SB level. If you get called you are probably just against a kicker, but you could be against KK or QQ. Someone at that cash level is probably not chasing you with a mid or small pocket pair since he was betting into you. The reason I would fold is that there are a lot of hands that could beat you and with JJ your best scenario is a full house and it really needs to be Jacks full or you could lose the house to a bigger house. So basically the way I'm seeing it is that you have 2 outs. Thats 23 to 1 that youre going to hit your J on the turn and 22 to 1 on the turn. With $850 in the pot you have 17 to 1 pot odds if you call. The math is not in your favor and you should lose more than you win.

Again, I'm the amateur here so thats my read.







EugeneJeff capped pre-flop so it's presumed he has large pocket pair or AK suited.

When flop AA3, sb (who had 3 bet) bets out, bad limper/cold caller calls, Jeff should re-raise. Sure an Ace would slow play and go for the re-raise on the turn, but KK or QQ would have to raise here to see what's happening in the hand or put sb on defensive. AK can call so he's announcing he's got KK, QQ, or JJ, but that's fine.

If sb 3 bets and middle position cold calls 2 bets again Jeff knows he's in trouble and can fold. Not just from the 3 bet, which could be a bluff 3 bet because Jeff announced he probably doesn't have an A, but because of the cold caller. But, it's still 19 small bets in the pot at that point to Jeff at the cost of one small bet to see a card. Fold to any bet on the turn unless a J comes off.

If sb 3 bets and middle position folds, Jeff can call to see one more card and fold to a turn bet. At that point there are 18 small bets and it costs him only 1 small bet to see the turn.

(in response to Byrke's pot odds scenario, I would call the raise despite being a little behind due to implied odds- the 3 better will bet out and if you catch a J, you take a huge pot with multiple re-raises likely)

If sb has an A, wouldn't he prefer an overcall from middle position than reraise and take the hand right there? He might call, hope for the overcall and then bet out to guarantee a bet goes in on the turn.

If sb just calls, so will middle position. So Jeff is in good shape for a check through on the turn potentially because he's shown strength, unless sb has an ace. He can value bet the river, if checked through again, or call one bet.
---------------------------------------------------
Jeff called. He chose not to raise, figuring that middle position was likely to have at least Ax suited having cold called two bets preflop and sb may have higher pocket pair or AK, AQ.

Turn is an A.

sb bets, middle position calls.

now what?



Me:now that you're in it with a full house and you have 2 callers There is a good chance that you are still against Ax (possibly AK in the SB) since he bet out. Middle position called so I'd venture hes on a pocket pair as well thinking his house may be good, but also concerned about the A. If he hit quad aces hes raising here. At this point youre in the damn pot with a flush and your pot odds calling your name. Since you've probably taken MP out of the AAAA scenario and youre on a FH you should probably raise here. If SB reraises hes again saing I have your FH beat with a bigger one or hes hit the quads. If he calls there is a good chance you're seeing the river for free or you can choose to bet/call. I'm a wus so I would take it free if it came to me. If you raise here as well there is a a strong chance that MP will fold and at least take a player out. Would he call 2 raises with AAA on the board? If he re-raises at this point I am peeing myself wondering where the heck the A is. If I'm thinking about this as my $1/2 game I was already out of the pot. If I called like Jeff did I'm wanting to shoot myself right now.

So basically I'd raise here. You're on a FH and you screwed yourself in now. Without the raise on the flop you're still without info. Your hand isnt getting any better, only worse IMO if another J comes. You're definitely playing quads on the river.

Now that I am wasting mad time today you gotta tell me. I have to go get my hairs cut and I'll be back in an hour.





Eugenee reason you can't fold the flop is b/c you were the one who four bet pre-flop. folding means you're weak-tight and will be bet into with any paired board the rest of the night, or any ace on the flop. either way, the table image is bad. that's why jeff just called. i disagreed and said raise for info.

anway,

the a came on the turn, sb bet out, mp called, jeff folded. at that point he probably had not other choice. the caller is what made it impossible to call. that guy was callling all the way, 2 or 1 bet, so he's got a made hand. he may have flopped 3s full of A and was now conterfeitted, but what can you do.

here's my take if Jeff had raised as I suggested:

When the A comes on the turn everyone has to either fear or represent an A in this situation.

If Jeff's raise on the flop was the last bet it is likely checked to him. He can check and bet the river for or call one bet on the river.

If sb 3 bet and mp called 2 bets cold and then there is a bet and call on the turn, Jeff has to fold.

If sb 3 bet and mp folded and sb bets out Jeff probably still has to fold. But, if he made quads would he bet out after putting Jeff on KK, QQ, or JJ? I doubt it. Jeff has to fold to a turn bet with 3 aces and this action. sb would prefer to check and see if Jeff made his nut boat or full of Qs or JavaScript. He could then check raise or let Jeff bet his hand to ensure the maximum action.

anyway, Jeff mucked.

river was a blank.

sb bet, mp called.

sb had 9-9, mp had 4-4







Me:You were dead on IMO, if you chose to stay in the hand. I still didn't like the odds balance so like I said I would have been out. At least I feel good that had I stayed in the flop the correct call would have been to raise. I disagreed with Jeff right away. The other thing is, now in hindsight (I know that its never good to think that way, but it always helps with analysis) had he raised, what do you think the sb and mp players would have reacted. If they ran him up to cap with 99 and 44 and now hes reraising do they flinch? I think one of them would have to. Definitely the 44 might have to think twice. Now your heads up and you can push the SB.



Sorry for the incredibly large post, but since this is basically the discussions I've been reading in the threads here I figured some of you would have interest.

Byrke

I think a re-raise on the flop was critical - or simply fold! If the re-raise was just called, by either, I am discounting the A in their pockets but have concerns of large pocket pairs than JJ. Any re-raise and I fold giving credit for an A or larger pocket pair.
Once the turn came up with a 3rd Ace, I have to risk the quad aces and go for the pot as hard and fast as I can. If quad aces come up - well, that's the risk I was taking!

There is a recent post on playing pocket pairs with several replies that I think applies well to this hand - you might want to try a search on it.

I didn't read the entire post just how the hand went.

Here's my read.

Limp from MP to open the pot at this level strongly suggest no ace!!!!

Any ace hand played from MP in an unopened pot (AK,AQ, AJ, AT and even A9) is a raising hand. With the limp cold call I'm thinking instantly little pair (77-44). A stronger play will fold dominated hands like KQ, KJ, QJ more often than not when players after him have shown interest. But there are huge implied odds with a baby set against overpairs!!!!!

Ok so MP hands was relatively easy.

Your buddy raised on the button which for all intent and purposes is an isolation raise with a wide variety of hands that are most probably weaker that JJ.

So the 3 bet from the SB doesn't need to be a premium pair or AK for many reason.

The flop is either a raise or a fold.....If I were Jeff (actually I am since it's my name), I'm raising since I capped preflop. What this does is define the hand a little better and also attempts to grab control of the hand since he is on the button and SB has a player to act after him which is key in this hand.....Also your on cheap street so the raise is a cheap price for info.

So we decided that MP is on a little pair but with Jeff's play you can't put SB on a hand with I think was a huge mistake. But with the turn card I'm calling down. He's only beat by KK and QQ....and the rare case ace. He beats TT-77 so I can't see laying this down.

call down that shit yo, the only hands that beat you are bluffing and drawing slim, so you may as well get a bet on every street from them, and not lose more bets to a hand that you are killed by.

call down.

I would raise on the first hand to see where I am at. I stopped reading after that though.