As you all know I have been in a bit of a rut lately. I am trying to break out of it and looking for flaws in my game. One piece I know I can improve on, but havent put much effort into because my results were so damn good, is locking on a reasonable range of hands people may have. I have been relying on betting paterns to tell me if someone has a hand, is drawing, or has missed entirely, but I have never been able to get much better than that.

The question I have (and I know this is very arbitrary) is what techniques do you use, and what are your thought patterns are as you atempt to define a range of hands and then narrow it down street over street.

I think this may be more of an art than a technical exercise, but I am looking for any guidance I can get. I would also be curious to know about any books that focus on this topic.

This is why I've always wanted a poker mentor - someone I could sit with during a game and have them talk through with me what the other players may have and why.

__________________
I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.

Obviously it will always depend on the player/players you are up against, whether they are loose-aggressive, tight-aggressive, loose-passive, etc. But it is easier to make certain assumtpions and then adapt your general view from there. This at least is how I do it...

* Assume these guys know their poker. They needn't be big on Sklansky, but they will probably know the difference between a premium set of hole cards (like ) and a reasonable starting hand (like ). On the flip side, they know is the worst hand you can get but they probably like suited connectors. Personally, I love , though only if it is relatively cheap.

* Combine this with, as stated, the cost of seeing the flop but also (a) the style of play you put them on and - this is easier - (b) the style of play you see them putting the table as a whole on. You can only assume that if you see the table as being loose as hell, the guy next to you notices too, unless he is eyeing up a waitress or surfing the net for porn. If the table is loose and cheap, some guys will play (reason being if you hit, no-one will believe you). This is how good they are pre-flop at picking cards.


* the easiest point, and what it really comes down to, is the flop. What is the best set of hole cards, given the flop? What is reasonable? Is there a draw on the table? And how do they bet on the flop? Flush draws want a cheap look, for instance, because if pot odds are worse than approx. 2-1 they have a negative expectation in the long run if they continue to call in hope.
does he call a pre-flop raise then bet/call when rags flop? If so, he has low pockets (i.e. trips). A bluff would raise, anything else would fold. Same if flops: if the guy calls you, he either holds an Ace (though depending on the above point, it may be a low kicker) or pocket Jacks, or worst Ace-Jack. Either that or he has pockets and puts you on a bluff. But, again, if he is loose, he may call with , as everyone knows you do still get a lot of madmen like that. The better a guy is at poker, the harder he is to read. But the better he is, the tighter he is so just be aware of super-tight guys (though of course the beauty of being tight is you can make ridiculous bluffs occasionally, once you have gained the respect of the table).

Usually after sitting at a table or so, you can get pretty good accuracy with picking what they hold. When you learn the players, it is easier but if your information is limited use an adjusted Murphy's law: ask yourself what you would really hate them to have an assume they have the hand one down from that. Straight flush draw hurts? They probably have a flush draw. If you are tight and only play the good hands, these assumptions seems to work because you don't have to try and compute all the variables. Just assume they are as good as you are and figure out what you would be holding. Again though, this is general and in reality, reading hands must take into account the table as a whole and that particular player.

One final point: if you want to find out what hand they are likely to have, find out. Throw a bet at them. Check all you like (it's free, after all), but unless you have the nuts, never call. Calling is for fish or people sitting on great cards. If he bets you, he doesn't necessarily hold, but if he calls a raise, he probably does.

That's all i can think of right now. I am at work, so I better get back ...

Peace,
Matthew Thomas

IMO, this has a lot to do with experience and paying attention to who your opps are, what they're doing and why they're doing it.
For example, if a player in EP raises instead of limping in, what kind of hand would raise and what kind of hand would limp? Next if I have A-Qo, I'm going to re-raise to try and narrow the field (what I'm doing and why I'm doing it!)as much as possible but if I am re-raised again by a 3rd opps, what kind of hand would be needed to do that and why did he re-raise me when he could have cold called? Or if the original raiser capped the bet? In both cases I'm already thinking large pocket pairs. On to the flop - what does it look like? - and again what are they doing and why do I think they are doing it? Checking - weak or slowplay? Leading out - continuation bet or they hit the board? Raising - for value, to win it right there, semi-bluff, cutting drawing odds, what?

There are plenty of books that get into reading hands but it still boils down to experience and analysis of the information being given you (both false and real) Reading Hand Histories (yours and others) is a terrific excercise in sharping your skills. As you read each history, try to figure out what each player is doing and why! When you get to the results, see how well you put each player onto a hand and if you find you're way off, go back with the results info and see if each action by the player makes sense. Often it won't - especially with fish and call stations! Advanced players often try to conceal their hand until its too late and the trap is set but once you know who you're dealing with and how they layed the trap, you'll be on guard next time if you pay attention!
The really neat thing about using hand histories is that each one is different and each excercise is a quick learn. You should be saving your own hand histories to you hard drive - I keep 30 days of histories in my PokerStars file and now that I have Poker Tracker, I can re-play each history just as it happened on the re-play feature. If I find a certain trend on a player, I can then make a note on him and use it next time we meet at the tables! And ofcourse, PokerForum has plenty of posts with hand histories being analyized by multiple people of various experiences that you can compare your reads against.
Hope this gives you a few ideas on how to sharpen your skills.

Good point. And, watch the play for at least 15 minutes before you go in the room. There is nothing better than playing against someone who has just gone on tilt, and knowing it. For him, strategy goes out the window. Plus, always look at Plrs./Flop percentage to get a nice loose game then figure out when you're watching: who is driving these stats up? who is keeping them down? Then you're reads will naturally change for different players even when the actions are the same.

Finally, to follow on from that quote: when you find a true blue fish, make sure you remember his name and take all his chips until you force him to learn or quit. You still have to read of course: true fish will chase a runner-runner, so if it hits, get out. Let him have it. Get him next time he tries to be the big man by going over the top of you with nothing in the hole.

Good luck

Well, you've taken the critical first step that, IMO, many poker players never take: you're actually thinking about what your opponent holds.

Online this is incredibly difficult compared to a live game. Most of the players you will face do things like play hands way out of position, raise and call at a whim, peel one off (calling a bet just to see the next card), and bluff way too much. And these players aren't thinking about what you hold.

My basic strategy against this type of opponent is to study them while I just play my own cards. I believe the moves they make: when they go all in, I credit them for a hand and will call based on my pot odds alone. When they raise (particularly if they almost never raise), I get out of the way unless I'm holding a huge hand. If they're over-bluffers, I'll eventually catch on to it and hammer them when I have a hand.

Then of course there are the good players online. They're infinitely easier to read, believe it or not. Most of these play pretty straightforward, and every now and then they'll pull off a bluff or semi-bluff (if you never get bluffed out of a hand you're calling too much). They play just like they are "supposed" to.

And finally there are the very good and great players, who mix up their game, change speeds, make deceptive plays to throw you off. They are also difficult to read, but not as difficult as the poor players. Against them, you must always think ahead and behind - "How did I play this hand last time? I'd better change it up against them this time", "If I just call here on the flop, can I take this pot away on the turn?", etc.

Perhaps you could post some hand histories without the results, and we could all take a shot at reading your opponents. It might be a way to learn quite a bit.

Regarding hand histories. I have been begligerent in this regard. I keep on meaning to change the option and start saving them, but never do. I promise to change it before my next tourney. This will help me bring some of my tough hands to the table for analysis so I can learn from some tangible examples.

Don't get me wrong. I am doing a lot of the analysis stated, but I never seem to get past a murky picture that says "hand", "Draw", "nothing". I just feel I should be able to define this better.

The raiser from early position I am typically putting on a certain range that inlcudes the premium pairs, AK, AQ, AJ suited an so on. The guy who calls the EP raise I typically place on a mid PP or a similar hand to the raiser. The table of all limpers I am putting on any range of suited cards or low PP's. The re-raise after an EP raise screams high PP to me.

I certainly need to tailor this to the style of player.

Then the flop comes, and I become enamored with what I see on the board, so my deductive reasoning falls apart. I have a tough time adding my PF reads to the betting that follows to further define the initial "murky" range of hands. I need to focus more on this aspect of my game if I am ever going to take my game to a higher level. I know my bad run will end, and a new hot streak is probbly right around the corner, but i will never smooth out the peaks and valleys without improving this aspect of my game.

I am facing a transfer to Manhattan and looking at a lot of reading time on the train, so if anyone can quote me any of the books that focus on this particular aspect of the game I would welcome it. If there is one that has exercises (similar to HOH) that would be great.

One thing I can say for certain regardless of my "read" ability is that during this bad spell I seem to have lost the ability to get away from a hand. Last night I pissed away a chip lead with 4 remaining taking a marginal hand too far and ended up out in 4th. Thats the second time in 2 weeks I did that after never losing a chip lead in the previous 6 months in the same spot.

I am hoping the dialogue can continue on this topic because I think each and every person on here will have a unique perspective on the ways they reason things out at the table.

Maybe it would be helpfull for people to post hand histories and talk through the logic of what hands to put people on and why.

__________________
I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.

All of the stuff below has a thousand exceptions but are some of the factors I consider;

• Knowing the VPIP% of the other guy is extremely helpful as a starting point for defining hands.
  
  Pokertracker, pokertracker, pokertracker.
  
  Read every significant hand history that goes to showdown after it happens (this enables you to see mucked hole cards at showdown). Once you know what cards someone had then reading the hand again is a big insight into how they play certain types of cards.
  
  Copious notes are a big help, the best way to work out what a guy has is to base it on evidence of what he's done before with certain cards. Of course this can be misleading but it's a massive source of information.
  
  Constantly ask the question - What 2 cards could he have that make sense of the way he's played this hand?
  
  And also ask the question - What does he think I have? This is a lot harder but is another way to make sense of his betting and define his hand.
  
  Don't rush to assume it's a bluff - if someone's representing TPTK then most of the time they will have it

One of the main factors I use in getting a bead on a player is pre-flop play. If they are in most hands, willing to call one or more bets cold pre-flop consistantly, and ruthlessly defend their blinds, I generally percieve them to be a novice player.

Habitual betting / raising and refusal to fold is another indicator. If someone consistantly fires at pots and gets called down to show nothing you can obviously mark them as a weak maniac.

When I was first starting out, I would watch a hand and see someone raise and be re-raised. When the original raiser folded I thought "hah see, he had nothing", but obviously i've come to learn that in most cases he had *something* but was smart enough to know that he was likely beat. People who will call all the way and show bottom pair are so common these days (not that I mind heh $$$).

Not sure where i'm going with this, but online play, which I do almost exclusively, is much more difficult to read that brick and mortar. Betting patterns, hand participation percentage, and showdown cards are really all you have to work with, but they are powerful informational tools.