If there was a flush draw out there I would fold my instantly would that be the correct play?

Originally Posted by ChieF

If there was a flush draw out there I would fold my instantly would that be the correct play?

If you can get this kind of read (2 sets and a flush draw), you're my hero. I'd lean much more heavily to the third player having an overpair KK or AA he couldn't get away from. But let's say we use our superman x-ray vision, and realize this is what we're up against (but we can't see through the lead hand of the dealer covering the deck).

You now have 2 less outs (the A and 9 of that suit), and your opponents have an additional 9 outs (or so). So now we're 26% to make our straight, and our opponents will draw out on us 38% of the time we make our hand.

So 26% - (26% * 40%) = about 16% or just better than 5:1, which now officially sucks (pot odds still at 4.7:1).

Assuming your read was right, I think its a slightly +EV call, but with 2 dead A and 6 more cards for the FH after turn, it was a -EV call I think. but hey... you went with your read and I think its what you had to do.

Lets do the maths on your read

8 remaining outs
39 uknown cards
you will hit aroud 40% of the time
the FH (or quads) will hit 15% when you hit
15% * 40 = aroud 35% of the time you will win
120/570 = aroud 21%

Seem like a good call!!!

But doing the mats with the 2 Aces out would be an other ball game.

KJ

Well no... you still win 27% of the time even with the 2 A dead.

KJ