The following hand comes from a Cardplayer Middle Limit quiz. I completely disagree with the suggested play, and so I thought I'd post the question here to see what you guys think. Here's the set up:

It's a $10/$20 game. Five players limp to you, and you call with . The SB completes the bet, the BB checks, and 8 players see a flop with $80 in the pot.

The flop is . The blinds check, the next player bets, and the next two fold before the action gets to you. What's your play?

I would be inclined to raise in this spot. With 2 overcards, I'm 7:1 to make a hand on the next card. Unless I'm already up against a set, making a top pair should be good, especially since neither of my cards is likely to complete a straight draw or make someone two pair. So, with $90 in the pot, my cards merit at least a call. However, I'd raise to eliminate the checkers who may have an Ace, the only top pair draw card that would concern me. The raise may also earn me a free card on the turn, allowing me to see the river for only $20 instead of $30.

Cardplayer suggests folding because there are too many players in the pot. It argues that, with so many players, top pair is not likely to be a winning hand. In addition, it suggests that I have to take into account that the live players behind me may check-raise, something you don't want to happen when playing overcards. I completely disagree with this analysis, but I'll let others comments before more fully explaining my thoughts.

I agree with raising there. This is a big pot... risking 1 BB to increase your chances of winning at least 5 is a fair play in my oppinion. The only people calling two cold on that flop are those with 89 or a T. If you get it down to 1 or two people against you, all of a sudden top pair is far more likely to win if you hit... and someone with Q7 won't be hitting his two pair. Also, as you said, buy the button.


This may be a middle limit game... but with 8 players limping around in the pot I have to assume that my opponents are weak... and play like I would at 1/2. You'll definantly win this pot often enough to justify risking the two extra bets, even if you will be disapointed pretty often.

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-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

I adjust my play in these situations depending on who's still in and left to act. With that kind of board, I'm not that concerned with a check/raise and if it happens, I'm folding.

I may raise to narrow the field, I may fold, or jst limp along and see what happens. I know that just calling is the wrong play here but if I'm up against of really passive players then I may do it if I know my raise isn't going to knock the Axs off their hand.

Usually I'll fold to a bet on the flop. This comes from the "Fit or fold" school of thought which SSH recommends against. Again, it depends on who else is in the hand. I do not believe that there is a standard answer.

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Trons
JstTrons
Toyotatruck

Why didn't you raise pre-flop? You had a chance to narrow the field of the blinds and double the bets of the 5 already in, all of whom would likely have checked the flop around to you for the lead-in bet. A continuation bet would then have the same effect as your proposed raise at half the cost and make it easiier to exit if you were re-raised.

However, you are now behind a bettor and have missed the flop, so continuing to play would be chasing. When I make a 'chaser' note on a player I often see I'm putting it next to a Poker Tracker rating of LPP - FISH.

Top pair may well win this pot but you still have to chase to get it; the UTG bettor likely already has top pair and may well have a King or Queen kicker - especially if they were suited as so many love to play suited cards of any rank from any position. Getting your top pair also has the highly possible consequence of making 2 pair or an OESD (if playing a T-J (suited?) connector), for someone else. Then there are the checkers who may have 2nd pair with K or Q kickers or other connectors that fit a 7-8-9-T OESD.

I come from the "Fit or Fold" school Trons mentioned. I figure that chasing missed flops will cost considrably more in the long run than the few times I manage to get lucky to catch what I was chasing - and then only to find out it was luckier for the other guy.

This is a nice pot, giving nice odds but I think you blew it pre-flop when you didn't raise and gave up any 'respect for power' needed for the semi-bluff you are proposing. I fold!

Actually, the continuation bet would be far less effective in "buying" outs. Lots of hands that are correct to call one bet here would not be correct to call two cold. Your KQ for example

With the most likely result of narrowing the field down to the bettor and yourself (and whoever has a ten if there's more then one out), and getting checked to you on the turn for a free card... you're usually going to get to see two cards, and they only have to actually win the pot about 1 time in 5 for ya for this to be a profitable play.

Saying that- Your equity there is probably about 25% heads up against AT (dont' have pokerstove handy) and as Aces said, there's lots of ways the hand could go wrong. The guy playing AT could be a good player and 3 bet you and then lead the turn, for example. But "because there's a lot of players and one pair isn't likely to win" simply isn't a good argument for folding here.

__________________
-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

No way I raise, plenty of people will limp with QT and KT, also AQ and even AK. In a communitty pot people could have anything.

there are also 2 players MIA, 5 limped too you PF, but only 3 have acted before the you on the flop.

Keep in mind that this is not a hand that I played... the post is based on a hand set out in a Cardplayer quiz, and it's primarily intended to raise issues about post-flop play.

I think we all agree that chasing is bad in general. But if (1) a hand presents a draw, (2) you have reason to believe that the draw will be best if you make it, and (3) the pot offers you the odds to pursue the draw, why should you fold?

Here, the issue to me is whether making a pair of Kings or Queens will be good enough to win this pot (although I note that the board presents a backdoor straight possibility as well).

This flop does not look like one where someone already has two pair. Someone may already have a set, but you'll likely find that out if you raise in this spot and get re-raised or check-raised from one the live players behind you (in which case, I would fold). Thus, until there is evidence that someone already has a big hand, you have reason to believe that top pair beats what is already out there.

Also, as I mentioned, it's unlikely that hitting a K or Q will make someone a straight unless they are playing a gutshot, in which case you've made the pay 2 bets on the flop to chase their 4 outs. It is possible that someone is playing KT or QT, as you suggest, but probably more likely that they have a hand like ATs, JT, or T9 because they are more common starting hands from players in earlier positions than you have.

Finally, I'm mostly advocating taking one more card off the deck after this flop. If I raise it here, I would expect to be called only by the original bettor on the flop (if I'm re-raised, I fold because I have now evidence that top pair will not end up best). On the turn, there will then be 6 big bets in the pot. If I miss and the original bettor leads into me, then I fold, since I no longer have the odds to draw to a K or a Q. If he checks to me, I check behind him, taking the free card that I bought with my flop raise, and then I fold on the river if I miss again.

Raising is definitely an interesting move - but I do not see why T9 or JT is more likely than QT or KT from up front.

This book has been criticized on 2+2 for being overly tight and weak.

I think this is a reasonable play as well. I would be inclined to raise for the reasons that I stated. And you might even get AK or AQ to fold if you raise and they are still to act behind you. If those hands are out there, they'd have to call 2 bets to win 10 after you bet, and that's not the right odds for drawing to overcards. In any event, I wouldn't argue hard against just calling here, but I don't see a lot of downside in calling one bet on a 7:1 shot in a pot that will offer you at least 9:1 if you reasonably believe that your hand will be best if you make it.

You're right, beavis. I may be imposing my own standards here. I don't like to play gapped cards, suited or not, especially from an early position. But I will acknowledge that many players do.