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About LinkBacksHand #124965166 at table: STT $10 NL
Started: Sun Oct 30 22:19:19 2005
EarlLambie is at seat 1 with 2890.00
IOP is at seat 2 with 1330.00keane is at seat 3 with 1290.00
jmetro is at seat 5 with 595.00
XGoRD is at seat 6 with 760.00
churrasco is at seat 7 with 2945.00
McMan555 is at seat 8 with 930.00
Dato is at seat 9 with 1985.00
steviebe is at seat 10 with 2200.00
Dato posts the large blind 50.00
McMan555 posts the small blind 25.00
McMan555: --, --
Dato: --, --
steviebe: --, --
EarlLambie: --, --
IOP: 8h, 8d
keane: --, --
jmetro: --, --
XGoRD: --, --
churrasco: --, --
Pre-flop:
steviebe: Fold
EarlLambie: Fold
IOP: Call 50.00
keane: Fold
jmetro: Call 50.00
XGoRD: Call 50.00
churrasco: Fold
McMan555: Call 50.00
Dato: Check
Flop (Board: 8c, 3c, Jc):
McMan555: Check
Dato: Check
IOP: Bet 150.00
jmetro: Call 150.00
XGoRD: Fold
McMan555: All in for ~ 900
Dato: Fold
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Results 1 to 10 of 18
Thread: What to do ????
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10-30-2005 #1Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
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- 639
What to do ????
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10-30-2005 #2Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Sep 2005
- Location
- Calgary, Alberta
- Posts
- 778
Poker Stove puts you at a 2:1 underdog to catch your boat. The pot is laying 1.5:1 to call the 900 all-in (including your's and jmetro's 300). That's the math but you also have to consider your torunament life which will be reduce to hanging on by a thread if you lose. Tuf call and without a read on McMan555, I'm thinking fold to fight a more promising hand later.
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10-30-2005 #3Poker Hustler
- Join Date
- Nov 2004
- Location
- nyc
- Posts
- 828
im assuming you did the math for a made flush, but is it always a made flush? it cant be 33, AcJx, any 2 pair, or even just the ace of clubs?
im not folding here. its def +ev to call here because of the times its good. when its not, you have a good chance of catching up.it's better to be pissed off than pissed on
missot on stars. come to my poker vent server! (its a voice chat program)
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10-30-2005 #4Poker Professional
- Join Date
- Dec 2004
- Posts
- 1,670
I think you guys give him too much credit here. He just went allin. Even if he has a flush, you can redraw.
I would just call here.
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10-30-2005 #5Poker Hustler
- Join Date
- Sep 2005
- Location
- San Francisco, CA
- Posts
- 1,230
Seems there's 4 types of hands against us:
1) Overpair/Top pair/two pair/bottom set/bluff (no flush draw) - they're drawing nearly dead
2) Made flush - we're about 37% to win
3) Flush draw - we're about 70% to win
4) top set - we're drawing dead
I'm pretty sure I don't even have to do the math here, this looks like an easy call. Pot is nearly giving us the odds to draw out on the made flush alone, and I'd put top set at about 10% probability (really would expect a PF raise from JJ). So given the amount of time we're a huge favorite, this is an easy one.
But here's how I might approach the math. Pot odds 1:1.6 (900/1400)
1) OP/TP/2P/33 - 40% of the time x 90% to win = 36% . . . geez, that's almost our odds right there. I wouldn't even bother finishing this one.
2) FLush - 25% of the time x 36% to win = 9%
3) Flush draw 25% of the time x 70% = 9%
4) Top set = 10% x 0% = 0% (this one's easy!)
So we've got to be about 54% to win! Wow. This would be correct even if the pot was only giving us 1.1:1 against, which isn't possible (we have to at least get 1:1).Last edited by Jason75; 10-31-2005 at 12:01 AM.
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10-31-2005 #6Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
- Location
- Boston
- Posts
- 595
Wouldn't the fourth 8 beat top set? We're not drawing entirely dead in case #4. Our quads would beat his full house.
Last edited by Yvraine; 10-31-2005 at 01:22 PM.
... can't sleep, blinds will eat me ...
Originally Posted by KRE8R
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10-31-2005 #7Stu Ungar
- Join Date
- Feb 2005
- Location
- Montréal
- Posts
- 2,398
10$ STT...
I call this one in a heart beat... IMO opinion you are favorite here. Even if he have the Flush you still have decent chances.
KJ
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10-31-2005 #8Chaser
- Join Date
- Oct 2005
- Location
- Australia
- Posts
- 162
I agree there. Giving the other guy Ac 4c (Just randomly picked) puts them at 65.6% to win, while the pocket 8's are at 34.4% to win. With a possible ten cards remaining to give you the nuts, I would feel I have to call. You can always sit yourself at another tournament if it fails. Originally Posted by bboy
For the sake of interest, I gave the other player 10c 9h for a straight/flush draw and that gave them 42.2% to win, while pocket 8's had 57.8% to win.
In short, this is anyone's hand and you should only be folding if that particularly scares you, otherwise put your chips in because you're not much of an underdog.
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10-31-2005 #9PokerForums God
- Join Date
- Oct 2004
- Location
- Cleveland
- Posts
- 9,757
Yup call, play to win, along with all the other reason everybodey else posted.
Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.
Luck is a Residue of Design.
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10-31-2005 #10Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
- Posts
- 639
Thanks for all of the advice
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