I was sitting in the big blind short stacked at around T2,100 with 22 players left with blinds at 100/200 antes 25. I scanned the other two tables and noticed one other player shorter than me and one very solid player who took a couple of bad beats a half hour earlier that had a little more than me.

I had already cashed in $500 from winning my shootout table the first day and additional payouts start at 20th ($750). First place was $54k.

UTG who is the chip leader at the table is an excellent player and has been the table captian for the last hour and a half. He has been playing a lot of hands and also showing a lot of very strong hands. So basically he has been rushing.

UTG makes it T800 to go. His standard raise has been 3xBB so this was slightly unusual for him.

The table folds to me and I have KJo.

What's your play?

This is kind of a tough one. On the one hand, there's no guarantee that the other two players aren't going to hold out longer than you for the extra $250, on the other hand even if you double up here you're still short.

I figure there's 7 players at your table, so you have an M of 4.4, and an effective M of 3. How did we get into this position? It appears we made our strategy decision to fold our way to as much $ as possible quite a while ago, or took a real drubbing recently. Either way, I think our path is set - fold every hand that's not AA or KK until we're just out of chips and let's see how much more $ we can make.

Basically, I think it's too late to even contemplate making a move to get back in the tourney. In the long run, just folding to get to the next payout level is probably the best option.

Here's a little bit more information on this hand. My opponent was Woo Yang Lin, who eventually went on to win the tournament. His raise didn't suggest AA or KK as he has shown KK twice and QQ once in the past hour and raised 3xBB each time. So I put him on AK, AQ, and QQ-77. Only the QQ, JJ and AK put me way behind.

Up to that point I played rather conservative but really had horrible cards or I was just in situations where when I hit my hand my opponents missed. I stayed about average in chips until I called a reraise all-in for a quarter of my stack with AK and I didn't improve against his pocket tens. In the next two hours or so I saw KK once in EP and put in a 3 BB raise with 4 large stacks behind me and none of them came in. I also raised 87s from EP and got and SB called. I took down the pot on an AAK board when SB check and I made a 1/2 pot continuation bet.

My last table I was at opened for a raise every hand and I had one oppotunities to raise with about a 4m with KQ and I scooped the blinds. The second hand was A2s in UTG+1 with an M of 2 and Lin called with KJ and I survived with an A high.

My goal was to make the final table and I didn't really care to finish 17-20.

Like I said, we either got here by taking some beats, or by making a decision a while ago that we're folding to as much $ as possible. As you pointed out, you took some beats and saw a run of frozen cards or no action when you picked up hands. Happens to everyone.

I wasn't familiar with Woo Yang Lin until I did an internet search . . . but we're basically talking about a pro here, so we should expect he knows the odds and is prepared to call down our all-in with a nearly zero folding percentage (which makes the math easier, but not our situation).

You've been sitting at the table watching the plays, so I'm not going to second guess your reads. So let's go with them.

So there's basically 3 types of hands we're facing: 1) hands that have us dominated, 2) Unpaired hands that are ahead, and 3) Coinflip hands (TT - 77). Since AQ is the only hand in category 2, I'm just going to eliminate that category and move it up to to category 1. It will make our calculations more conservative but also make them a lot easier.

Here's how I figure these situations at a live table. Any unpaired hand can be dealt 16 ways (4 suited, 12 unsuited). Any paired hand can be dealt 6 ways. I roughly equate 1 paired hand (for instance QQ), with 1/3 of an unpaired hand (such as AK). I then quickly add up all the hands I might be facing, and put a rough (and I mean rough) % on each one (you'll note that I got this from Harrington, my addition to it is the band-aid math by estimating total hands, not all possible card combinations which I can't possibly do at the table)

So we're facing QQ-77 (6 paired hands * 1/3 = 2 unpaired hands), AK and AQ (2 unpaired hands) for a total of 4 unpaired hands worth of cards.

1) Dominating hands (QQ, JJ, AK, AQ) a total of 8/3 hands. I add these up like this: AK = 3, AQ = 3, QQ = 1, JJ = 1. So in my head I'm thinking 3, 6, 7, 8. Now here comes the real band aids:
Let's just call it 3 total, divided by 4 total unpaired hands is 75% * 30% to win = 22 % (because 7*3 = 21, so I know it's a little more than 21%, so i just add another %)

2) Coinflip hands (TT, 99, 88, 77) - about 25% of the time (because it's 75% above so there's only another 25% left). So 25% * 50% to win = 12.5% (this one I can do in my head, because I've memorized that 1/2 of 25 is 12.5).

So we're roughly 35% to win and need to be around 38-40% for this to be a "correct" all in. So maybe you're close enough based on the AQ fudge factor and the uncertainty associated with our band aids.

One problem with this type of analysis before an all in is that it gives away that you don't have a big pair otherwise you wouldn't take so friggin long (it takes me about 20 seconds to do this analysis - you can do it quickly too just by practicing) - but again, he's a pro and we know he's going to call anyway based on the odds, so take as long as you need (until the dealer starts chirping at you).

Here's a reality check on the band aid math above:

QQ-77, AK, AQ: 68 possible card combinations.

QQ, JJ, AK: 28 possible card combinations or 28/68 = 41.2%

41.2% * 30% to win = 12.36% to win

AQ: 16 possible card combos or 16/68 = 23.5%

23.5% * 40% to win = 9.4%

TT, 99, 88, 77: 24 possible card combinations or 24/68 = 35.3%

35.3% * 45% to win = 15.75%

23.5% + 17.65% + 9.4% = 48.65%

So our margin of error is about 13%, which seems a little high here - obviously categorizing AQ as a dominated hand hurt our calculations, perhaps in the future we should knock this down to the coinflip hand range.

Interesting stuff Jason. Very well thought out.

I decide to call with the intention of moving all in if I hit a K or J and check fold the hand if I missed. If I missed I would have attempted to blind into the money. Also, I forgot to mention that the blinds were moving to 150/300 and 50 ante within the next 2 minutes.

There was T1300 in the pot with T600 for me to call. Based on his range of hands that he would bet 4xBB with (QQ-77, AK-T) I felt I was getting the right odds to call but not enough to raise all-in as there was no fold equity and I'm paying 1900 for about a 2600 pot.

Folding was an option but I felt with the players behind me I had very little fold equity as just about every short stack all-in was getting called by one of the larger stacks.

The flop came Jxx and I pushed in my last 1300. He quickly called and flipped over QQ to my dismay. He went on to win the event I walked to the rail in 22nd. This was the worst possible outcome as if I missed I still could have possibly blinded into the money. I was still pretty happy that I made one last stand though.

At the time I knew it was a close gamble but i felt I was getting the right price to try to double up and I wasn't going to get many more opportunities to improve my position.

Here's my final random thoughts (well, maybe final, I'm waiting for someone and have a lot of time to kill).

Interesting play, kind of a conditional stop and go. I could split hairs here and say "It's all in or fold here because you'll never make the money if you fold after your call and there's no guarantee he will call your all in if the flop comes with a K". But let's be serious, this is a major tournament not some nickel and dime internet one, and because of the unusual conditions that go on at these things I definitely think there's a place for plays like this and this is one of them.

One thing to consider when making this play is to check in the dark and make your opponent make the decision. If he goes all in, I fold my pair of jacks. If he makes a bet less than "all in" (including if he only bets enough to put me all in, but doesn't say "all in") then I've gotta feel that my jacks are likely good and go all in. But again, this is situational dependent - and I'm not going to criticize anyone for not doing it.

BTW, ever noticed how this is a tell for some people? It goes both ways, so you have to see how he does it. When he's a big stack and feels he has the small stack cornered, does he say "all in" or does he ask "how much do you have" or simply make a bet that he thinks has you covered? When he's trying to push some one out and he's the big stack, does he do it the other way around? I've noticed folks tend to lapse into a pattern when doing this in live tourneys - even pros. So if you can pick up on it, it's just that much more info for you to consider your decision.

If your goal is to get back in the tourney, then regardless of the mathematical analysis here, I wouldn't fault anyone for going all in with ANY hand (even 72o) in this situation.

Why? Because to be honest you're gonna have to get lucky and double up against the odds a couple of times. Might as well be right now, and frankly one hand is probably going to be just as good as the next when your effective M is 3 and the blinds are going up in a hand or two.

In fact, yesterday with the blinds coming around I was UTG with an M of 4, went all in with K4s and got called by a big stack with QTs in the SB and another big stack with Q9s in the BB! Not that I needed it, but I nailed a K on the flop for good measure and tripled up (M of 12 - yee haw!).