odds to call, or chasing?

**Trons** · 10-13-2005

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with

,

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Normally I would fold this hand from pretty much any position, but I figured with all the limpers, my pot odds were too high to pass up. Hated to see the raise by the BB, but by the time everybody was done calling, I was still doing well odds wise.

Flop: (12 SB)

,

(6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Ok, need the runner/runner for either a str8 or flush plus an overcard (with this flop I feel an overcard is good. How do you calculate odds for a runner/runner hand if you believe you will have to call one bet on the turn also?. Either way, I figured by the time it got back to me I was getting 13:1 plus whoever called behind me. (Hoping BB wasn't going for a check raise, but with this board, seemed unlikely.) This is where my main question is for whether I had the odds to call or not.

Turn: (8 BB)

(4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Ok, Now I have a flush draw and overcard. Figure 9 outs for the flush, 1 total for the overcard. 9:1 pot odds, 5:1 to make my hand. Seems like a no brainer.

River: (10 BB)

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls.

Can you say "show me the money"

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has Kc 9c (flush, ace high).
MP2 has 8c Ts (two pair, tens and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 14 BB.

The reason I want to know if I had the right odds to call PF and on the flop was because it felt "dirty" to hit the runner/runner. Throughout the hand, I kept telling myself that I was getting huge odds to call but was I jst giving myself an excuse to chase.

**Jason75** · 10-13-2005

I figure runner runner outs for flushes at about 1 out on the flop. It doesn't matter what order the cards come in, you need 2 of them in a row.

If you figure what the odds that 2 clubs come, it's

(10/47) * (9/46) = 4%

but remember, that's if we see the turn and river, so it seems logical to divide by 2 to get our outs on the flop which gives us about 2% or 1 out.

For the straight, it gets insane to calculate the exact possibilities. But I'm insane and I've always wondered about this, so let's do it just as a mental excercise.

For instance, if a 7 hits on the turn, then a jack or a 6 makes a straight (8 outs on the river). If a 6 hits on the turn, then you only have 4 outs to make your straight (need a 7).

Seems like the possibility that happens is:

probability of 7 on turn (4/47) * probability of J or 6 on river (8/46) = 1.4%

Now, help me out here, do we double that % because it could happen in reverse order, or would we be double counting it? I'm pretty sure we would be double counting it, so I'm not going to do it.

Then you could hit a jack on the turn, and need either an Q or 7. Since we've already figured the J, 7 combo, seems like we just figure out:

(Jack) 4/47 * 4/46 = not too fucking much! (0.07%)

And here we go again, since we could hit the Q first, then the jack, do we double it? Again, I think not, but I'm open to anyone who has a good argument for it.

After doing this, it seems if you just add up the 2 card combos that could make a straight (3 of them in this case: 7 & 6, J & 7, J & Q) and multiply them by 0.7%, you'll get your odds of 2.1% or about 1/2 out on the turn.

But here's the clincher - these are only outs if they make the best hand! I really wouldn't count runner runner outs for the flush unless I had the ace (you got lucky that the river was the Ac and then knew you had the nuts, but what if it were the 2c?). And none of the straights we make are the nut straight when we make them. So I think most of the time, we totally ignore these outs.

So I guess rule of thumb would be to just discount runner runner straight outs and just throw in 1 out for the runner runner flush when we have the draw to the nut flush. And BTW, I would only count your king as maybe 1 out, because your kicker sucks.

So you've got about 2 outs on the flop, and need to get about 22:1 odds to call. So bottom line is you're a lucky bastard. LOL!

**growlers** · 10-13-2005

After Jason's reply, there is not much else to say! I agree with all his analysis.

But I would point out you already I think knew that the flop call was a marginal play for one bet and I think you are at real risk of being raised behind you with 3 players left to act the chance of a checkraise is always there. It is also hard to play these draws out of position.

The checkraise on the river was a bit risky as not only did it complete the flush but it put an A on the board so might scare the bettor into just checking if he had say J10. I guess that if his chance of him betting is greater than 50% then it is a good play, that is a judgement call of past aggressiveness. I can tell you that I wouldn't have bet if you checked to me, and I'm an aggressive player.

I think I play differently than alot of people here - I checkraise mostly to protect a marginal hand or isolate people, or as a bluff in the right situation on the turn. Based on the last 4 hands I've responded to it seems like there is a alot of checkraising on the river with the nuts (or close to nuts) hoping people will bet to inflate the pot. I find that just betting these hands out makes as much or more money at these levels. I may be the one in the wrong here, I'm not saying I'm right, its just an observation I've made reading these hand histories.

edit: and to answer your question, the preflop completion and then call of the raise was fine, as well as the turn call. As Jason pointed out mathematically, I would have folded on the flop.

**Aces-o-8s** · 10-13-2005

In Gary Carson's book on Hold'em, he calculates a backdoor flush as 2 outs and a backdoor open-ended str8 at slightly less than 2 outs and places both in the fool's chase catagory! Runner-Runner = FOLD

Congrads on beating the odds - this time!

**Trons** · 10-13-2005

First, let me say that I appreciate all the input. I will not defend my play at all. I've never chased runner/runner unless I had other outs that were strong. IE: TPGK where I've also got the two pair (if I feel I'm outkicked) or 2 outs for the trips and the odds are there yada yada yada.

Again, The odds were far bigger then I'm used to seeing at these tables (when I'm in the hand) so I wasn't sure what the correct play was. I know now

. I jst couldn't see UTG+1 having the Ax clubs in his hand when I made the call so the only hands I was really afraid of was TT or

I probably should have known when it happened, but I got blinded by the odds (not often at these tables you're getting better then 10:1 for a bet)

I was fairly comfortable with the PF call, with that many people in the hand. I was also fairly comfortable with the turn call. The only hands I was really afraid of was TT or 88 and both were likely to be played that way. I decided I couldn't be afraid of everything (decided that on the turn, didn't know at the time how unlikely it was that I would hit the runner/runner). Of course, once I got the club on the turn, I knew that I had the odds to draw to the flush. Had he re-raised me, (indicateing the boat) I would have made a crying call and you guys wouldn't have seen this hand

As far as check raising, I'll do it from EP if the guy to my right bets and I have a marginal hand that I would prefer to be heads up against. I'll do with the nuts if I have an agressive player after me. I jst feel more comfortable with it if I have a strong hand.

**NoManner** · 10-13-2005

edit: nope, math was wrong. You need 20:1 here.

**Marm** · 10-13-2005

Originally Posted by Aces-o-8s

In Gary Carson's book on Hold'em, he calculates a backdoor flush as 2 outs and a backdoor open-ended str8 at slightly less than 2 outs and places both in the fool's chase catagory! Runner-Runner = FOLD

Congrads on beating the odds - this time!

Thats wrong, see Jasons post for the math, But I too have done the math, and came to the same conclusion, RR flushes are 1 out, and RR OESD (ie you have 3 in a row) is 1 out. Believe the 2+2 books all say RR's are 1 out too.

**Aces-o-8s** · 10-13-2005

Originally Posted by Marm

Thats wrong, see Jasons post for the math, But I too have done the math, and came to the same conclusion, RR flushes are 1 out, and RR OESD (ie you have 3 in a row) is 1 out. Believe the 2+2 books all say RR's are 1 out too.

I stand corrected on the OESD but the math for the backdoor flush in Carson's book goes like this:
10/47 * 9/46 = 0.04
and Carson goes on to say "The probability of making two running cards to complete a three-flush is the same as the probability of the turn card making you three of a kind when you have a small pocket pair. In a probabilistic sense, a backdoor flush draw is equivalent to two outs."

And as Jason points out, each out is about 2% so 4%= 2 outs.

As for the backdoor str8 - it's just too low to seriously chase it so I'll conceed to Jason's calculation.

**Beavis68** · 10-13-2005

Miller says 1.5 outs for flushes. but you guys are forgetting his overcard outs too. You guys are totally forgetting implied odds also.

This puts the call into neutral territory.

There are quite a few cards that will give improve your hand on the turn, and the pot is good size.

This stuff about drawing to the nuts is for old men and omaha players. If he was drawing to a one card back door it would be one thing, but he isnt, he has two flush cards.

This call definitely isn't fishy - it is marginal at worst. If the call is -ev, there is some utility factor working here too, this kinds of plays are fun.

I would say all totalled, he had close to 4 outs on the flop (hell the 9s could even be good).

**Jason75** · 10-13-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

Miller says 1.5 outs for flushes. but you guys are forgetting his overcard outs too. You guys are totally forgetting implied odds also.

This puts the call into neutral territory.

There are quite a few cards that will give improve your hand on the turn, and the pot is good size.

This stuff about drawing to the nuts is for old men and omaha players. If he was drawing to a one card back door it would be one thing, but he isnt, he has two flush cards.

This call definitely isn't fishy - it is marginal at worst. If the call is -ev, there is some utility factor working here too, this kinds of plays are fun.

I would say all totalled, he had close to 4 outs on the flop (hell the 9s could even be good).

Good point earlier about that he's playing suited cards, so we shouldn't discount his king high flush. Got so sucked into the math I thought for a moment we were drawing at a four flush. Oops.

I guess one of the gray areas of poker strategy is exactly what you count as outs. I'm personally somewhat conservative when drawing, preferring to get my money into better spots rather than overextending. I do agree with the implied odds comment as well (obviously I was just looking at expressed odds).

Personally, I do count runner runner flush draws (it's only 1 out based on the %'s I see) when I'm figuring my pot odds. When I have a weak kicker, I will discount my overcard outs as well (in this example there are 3 kings left in the deck, but I only counted one as an out because of the weak kicker, maybe that is too conservative). I just think I'd rather lay down a weaker draw (I'll go to war with 12+ out draws) than get burned by drawing too often.

PokerForums.org

Welcome to PokerForums.org

Thread: odds to call, or chasing?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display