marm wanted me to post this, the caller had been pretty tight, we were in the money

PokerStars Game #2791071329: Tournament #13543477, Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2005/10/12 - 23:45:58 (ET)
Table '13543477 163' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: saraht45 (11925 in chips)
Seat 2: GCM1331 (18146 in chips)
Seat 4: beavis68 (19318 in chips)
Seat 5: no3puttever (6329 in chips)
Seat 6: CLV914 (54726 in chips)
Seat 7: meno_hoden (17899 in chips)
Seat 8: hawk00 (9955 in chips)
Seat 9: SoxSuckNYY (34822 in chips)
saraht45: posts the ante 75
GCM1331: posts the ante 75
beavis68: posts the ante 75
no3puttever: posts the ante 75
CLV914: posts the ante 75
meno_hoden: posts the ante 75
hawk00: posts the ante 75
SoxSuckNYY: posts the ante 75
GCM1331: posts small blind 600
beavis68: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to beavis68 [Ah Qs]
no3puttever: raises 5054 to 6254 and is all-in
CLV914: folds
meno_hoden: folds
hawk00: calls 6254
SoxSuckNYY: folds
saraht45: folds
saraht45 is sitting out
GCM1331: folds
beavis68: ???
*** FLOP *** [Kc Kd 2d]
*** TURN *** [Kc Kd 2d] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [Kc Kd 2d 8d] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
no3puttever: shows [4h 8h] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
hawk00: shows [Ac Tc] (a pair of Kings)
no3puttever collected 14908 from pot
saraht45 has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 14908 | Rake 0
Board [Kc Kd 2d 8d Qc]
Seat 1: saraht45 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: GCM1331 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: beavis68 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: no3puttever showed [4h 8h] and won (14908) with two pair, Kings and Eights
Seat 6: CLV914 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: meno_hoden folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: hawk00 showed [Ac Tc] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 9: SoxSuckNYY folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I'm not going to look at the results but pretty easy call I think. The pusher has such a low M he could have anything and the caller knows this, his M isn't much better. Good chance he is calling with any A. Good spot to gamble a bit in the money and good chance you have both beat and winning would put you in a great position chip stack wise. If the caller had a bigger stack than you I think it is a tougher call.

edit: looked at results, surprised ha pushed with 84s, I know he wants the first-in vig but he has to think he will get callers with this short a stack, I think I take the next hand as 84s is way below a random hand even though he will be in the blinds.

edit2: oh, clearly you are going to put the caller all-in, I missed that he just called (probably because it was stupid for him to just call as he is pot committed anyway )

Is this the final table? What is the payout structure here (is this one of those tourneys that pays 11-20 the same and you're in 17th)? If this isn't the final table, what's your rank (or at least the average chipstack).

This is a tough one for many reasons:

1) your M is a whopping 7.6 (ick)
2) you have to quickly calculate odds for 2 pots (main pot and side pot because you're putting the other guy all in, not just calling)
3) AQo quickly degenerates quickly in multiway pots, and you've said the caller is tight. Off the top of my head, I'd give you no more than a 1:2 shot at the main pot and 1:1 for the side pot- and I think I'm being generous for the sidepot to make the math easy.

#3 and #4 nearly cancel out #1, so the tipping point for me would be whether I thought this hand could vault me into some real $ or if 38k I'll have when i win is basically the same as 20k in chips I have now.

Here's how I would quickly think about the odds:

Sidepot: If we figure you're even money to win the 7K side pot (you'll put him in for about 3500 more), we know we're break even there and don't have to worry about it. In a live tourney, maybe I try and figure this more exactly, but I have to make this assumption in an online one because I just don't have the time to worry about it. I basically figure the % of time we are dominated by AK, AA, KK, QQ is nearly cancelled out by the amount of time we're dominating a smaller Ace, with the rest all coinflips. It's really gross math, but what can you do in 30 seconds?

Main Pot: You've got 1600 in to a 15K main pot, and it's 4700 to call, or 3:1 pot odds. If we figure you're 2:1 to win, then we're doing pretty well here.

This is a real squeaker of a decision: fairly good odds, with a chance to knock off 2 players (if that matters, if we're just inside the $ it probably doesn't). If we're in the $, but in a flat payout zone, I go for it if I thought by winning I could fold myself to the next level. If I don't think winning is going to matter, then maybe I pick a better spot.

Really can't fault folding here, but I would likely push it all in if I thought winning was going to help me significantly.

Lets call it 50 left, and top 20 get decent money, top 135 get paid, but if you get like 30th, its not much more than 100th, only top 20 is decent, and final table good.

Funny thing is, I think this is an easy call. you can figure you've got the guy who pushed beat. He's only got 5bb left, the next two hands, his chips take a serious beating. My guess he's pushing with anything that looks even remotely decent (you have the vast majority of those hands dominated).

The caller could be a different story, unless he's got the same read on the the other guy as well. Given that I would say that even if he's tight, he's probably calling with cards he wouldn't normally have called with. I doubt (given the size of his stack before and after the call) he wasn't contimplating anybody else even thinking of coming in. I say this because if he thought it was plausable, he would have raised because he's going to end up all in either way. My guess is he's thinking he's going to be heads up with this guy and he'll have chips left over after he's done if he loses. Not the way to play with that few chips.

You have a very good hand for this situation and since you're last to act PF, you know nobody else is pushing more into the Pot. You'll still have chips left if you lose, but I put your odds of winning (based on the chip stacks of each) above 2:1.

The only reason I can think of for folding this hand (which may have been the case) is that you're either in the bubble for money (and 1-2 more people going out puts you in it) or you're in the bubble for a bigger payout. In either of those cases I'd fold probably anything but AA or KK.

How did you finish in the tourney BTW?