Would you call on the turn?

**Aces-o-8s** · 10-06-2005

Here's a fun hand I caught last night. The player in the BB is a tight player and when he plays I always give him credit - I cann't rememeber ever seeing him caught in a bluff. The table is somewhat loose and slightly passive at this time.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with

,

.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB)

,

(4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

If anyone had bet here, I would have folded faster than a cheap lawnchair!

Turn: (2.20 BB)

(4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Oh, great! I get my set and the board now has 4 hearts! Time to fold - But wait a sec...!

River: (5.20 BB)

(3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.20 BB

Results in white below:
BB has Qh 6d (flush, ace high).
Hero has 4c 4d (full house, fours full of fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.20 BB.

After the turn gave me the set with 4 hearts showing, there was no doubt in my mind that BB had the flush - and probably MP3 too! But a quick calculation that if any of the flop cards paired, I had 9 outs for 4:1 odds of making a full house. I called even though the pot wasn't giving me the right odds to do so

- would you have called?

**triple-t** · 10-06-2005

I gotta give you 10 outs here. 3 sixes, 3 aces, 3 fives, and 1 four. With 46 unknown cards, You are exactly a 3.6 to 1 underdog. The pot is offering 3 to 1 at the time of your call. Since you are pretty sure that BB has the flush, this is a freeroll for you. You only call a river bet if you hit. However, you know you will make 1 and most likely 2 river bets if you hit. Therefore, your implied odds added to your pot odds give you about 4.5 to 1 odds, as long as you are sure that MP3 does not raise after you call.

What would you have done if MP3 raised the turn and BB reraised?

**Aces-o-8s** · 10-06-2005

Originally Posted by triple-t

I gotta give you 10 outs here. 3 sixes, 3 aces, 3 fives, and 1 four.
What would you have done if MP3 raised the turn and BB reraised?

I discounted the 4th 4 (45:1) - it was too unprobable in my mind to give it any serious consideration - but mathamatically you are correct.

If MP3 raised and BB called - I would have called but if MP3 raised and BB re-raised I would have folded.
I didn't say so in the original post but on the turn as I was making the decision to call, I had one of those 'Chief' moments when you just have this positive feelings that this is a good call and I was going to hit the full house. Normally I'm more sceptical of such 'logic' but I can't deneigh having the feeling just then.

**triple-t** · 10-06-2005

Always count ALL of your outs. Missing just one can be the difference between calling and folding.

**Phytopath** · 10-06-2005

If you think that the other player will call the turn bet, then it is the right play for you to also call. However, otherwise it is a marginally losing call.

If you hit your boat, your implied odds aren't that great...unlikey that you'll get your opponent to re-raise you again with a pair on the board. It is also going to be the bottom FH, so you could be wondering what the player behind you is calling with.

**gaash** · 10-06-2005

Originally Posted by triple-t

Always count ALL of your outs. Missing just one can be the difference between calling and folding.

Not to mention your reasoning is foolish. Would you discount the 5 of diamonds because its only 1 out of 45 so its too improbable to consider?
Then why include the 5 of hearts?

**Jason75** · 10-06-2005

Originally Posted by Aces-o-8s

I discounted the 4th 4 (45:1) - it was too unprobable in my mind to give it any serious consideration - but mathamatically you are correct.

I don't get your reasoning here. Counting outs is just a way to estimate your overall win %, figure out your odds of winning, then comparing it to the expressed and implied pot odds to make a profitable decision. The odds of any one card hitting on the turn or river is approximately 2.2% (1/46). It's not the odds of that one card hitting we care about, it's the odds that one out of the entire set of cards that will give you a win will hit. In this case it's the difference between 19.5% to win and 21.7% to win - not much, but if you arbitrarily stop counting legitimate outs just because you don't think it's going to come, you're going to end up putting a leak in your game (particularly if you're making a decision to call an all in after the flop in NL).

Overall, I liked your play here.

**Pok 7's** · 10-06-2005

Originally Posted by Jason75

I don't get your reasoning here. Counting outs is just a way to estimate your overall win %, figure out your odds of winning, then comparing it to the expressed and implied pot odds to make a profitable decision. The odds of any one card hitting on the turn or river is approximately 2.2% (1/46). It's not the odds of that one card hitting we care about, it's the odds that one out of the entire set of cards that will give you a win will hit. In this case it's the difference between 19.5% to win and 21.7% to win - not much, but if you arbitrarily stop counting legitimate outs just because you don't think it's going to come, you're going to end up putting a leak in your game (particularly if you're making a decision to call an all in after the flop in NL).

Overall, I liked your play here.

I know this was argued here in another thread but, I'm trying to fully understand this. The outs x 2 for your percentage on the turn or river. However why is it some people will say outs x 4 for the turn instead of just saying outs x 2 for anything post flop? Hopefully this dosen't spawn a debate but this is a part of my game I've been working on recently, unfortunatly I still haven't figured out a way to determine pot odds in a NL game without having a calculator handy

**triple-t** · 10-06-2005

I think they say outs X 4 because there are still two cards to come. I do not like this reasoning because the turn can come a card that takes away some of your outs, or that can kill your hand. For example, you are chasing an OESD and the board pairs plus now has 3 of a suit. Being open-ended doesn't look too hot here.

**triple-t** · 10-06-2005

Originally Posted by Phytopath

If you hit your boat, your implied odds aren't that great...unlikey that you'll get your opponent to re-raise you again with a pair on the board. It is also going to be the bottom FH, so you could be wondering what the player behind you is calling with.

That's exactly why, even with 2 others still in the hand, I only gave 1.5 BB for implied odds. There's always a chance the original bettor will check-call or even check-fold when the board pairs.

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