All-in or fold.

What's the buy in for the tourney? Do we know anything about the SB? Even if we don't, here's our problem: What exactly are we beating here? The huge preflop raise from the SB to me indicates a middle pocket pair - something in the range of 99 to JJ. Or it could be AA, KK, or AK/AQ.

Firing away on the flop at exactly the pot size ($540) to me is a tell. He wants the hand to end now. Why? If he had aces or a set of tens or jacks, don't you think he'd want to see us put some money in this pot? I know there's two diamonds and two connectors out there (a generally unfriendly flop), but I think most folks with these huge hands are looking to get paid off. Of course, he could be just pissing himself with this big hand, but that's usually an all in move.

The only hand that I'm really scared of here is KK. To me, it would fit this betting pattern exactly. No ace on the flop, you made a huge call PF so he's got to think there's an excellent chance he's up against a big ace, the flop is not too friendly, so it's time to end the hand. But I think AK, AQ, or something like 99 or even 88 (in online play, not live play) also fit, with an outside chance of AT or AJ.

I think if we sit here and do our math (given our assumptions above), we're up against a hand that beats us so little of the time that I think the all-in reraise play is the correct one. Of course, it's relatively early in the tourney, and I wouldn't fault anyone who laid these queens down here and decided to pick a better spot. Late in a tourney with the blinds going up, I wouldn't even bother with this thought process before pushing my chips in.

Man, jason, I'm going ot have to ban you until you learn to post vague cryptic replies that may or may not be on topic, just like the rest of us. This well thought out, well written crap just won't cut it here.




That said. Its an all-in or fold here.

Originally Posted by MatchesMalone

Jason -

Not sure if you're familiar or not with UB tournies, but the pot sized bet is actually rather the norm. (the have a "bet pot" button). I don't consider this a tell, given the way play is done at UB.

Just an FYI.

As for the hand, I fold and pick a better spot. Blinds are only 15/30 and you have plenty of time to pick up something where you're more comfortable you'll double up.

--Patrick

That's good to know. Party has a "bet pot" button you can click before your turn, but it disappears when it's your turn to act. If they don't bet the pot immediately, and then put in an exactly pot sized bet, I usually consider this a tell. Of course, as with all tells, they are only reliable a certain % of the time.

Case in point, I was in a live game with a medium strong hand against a weak player. He does the classic fumble bet, then correct fumbled bet tell, so I go all in (he's nearly pot committed anyway) and he immediately calls with a monster (luckily I had him covered by quite a bit so I wasn't busted out). Because it's normally such a reliable tell, I asked him about it later. He told me he did it because he felt like the other players were going to laugh at him for looking like an idiot, and he got embarrased. He was more worried about looking foolish than getting me to call his bet (an no, he did not do a reverse tell to get me to call - he didn't even know it was one). DOH!