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  1. #1
    The Forefather KiD[ReD]'s Avatar
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    Default Is this worth it?

    I apologize in advance if this has topic has been created before.

    I've started ringing again, slowly and painfully working my way back up to the .5/1 tables, and I seem to do well and play very well EXCEPT for a repeated problem I keep having.

    I've had this problem ever since I started poker; oh sure I quickly became aware of it, and I'm aware of it constantly, but I still have problems with it.

    Basically it'll be when I have a big pocket pair such as AA or KK. I'll bet or raise PF to around 4bb (sometimes 3bb, sometimes 5bb etc. depending on the scenario). I'll have one or two callers, with one of them having something along the lines of AK, AQ, or JJ, and the other coming in with a 33, 77, or 88.

    So for example, let's say I have KK and I'm mid-position. I had one person before me limp in, I raise to 4bb, I get a flat caller before the button, and the limper calls.

    The flop comes: 389 rainbow

    The limper checks, I bet the pot, late positioner calls, limper calls.

    Turn comes: 2

    limper checks, I bet pot, late position reraises me all-in, limper folds, I call and he shows his 88..

    I lose all my money in similar situations like this, where people will come in for 4 or 5 bb with a pp, sometimes after limping in, sometimes after cold calling.. and they'll do this when it's just me in the pot too. This is definitely the #1 way I lose money on the ring tables and which is why I suck at ring tables.. so i'd like to overcome this.

    Is this profitable for the pp limper? If they know I have a big hand and are hoping to flop a set otherwise fold, are the implied odds great enough for them? I thought it most definitely wasn't, since you're not going to flop a set often enough.. AND.. you have to hope there's not a A, K or Q on the flop because you can get hurt from a higher set...

    Should I start doing the small pp trick too? It works great against losers like me, heh. Also, does anyone know the EXACT probability percentage of flopping a set? I'm curious..

    Anyhow, help would be appreciated, thanks.
    KiD[ReD]
    Ex-Owner/Administrator
    Merendi Networks Inc. (Merendi.com)

  2. #2
    PokerForums God
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    If you both have 100BB stacks, and you are making a raise of 5bb. They are getting immdiate odds of 2:1, but implied odds are 20:1 or better, so he has outstanding implied odds.

    Big stack NL is a game of implied odds, this is what makes the game so difficult, and why I advocate short buying for new players. If you and your opponent have 50+BB stacks, and you can't make these kinds of folds, it is hard to be profitable.

    I am sure Bob will have some better advice for you.

    I have the same problems early in tournaments with AA and KK. This goes back to Doyle Brunson's "win a small pot, lose a big one". They are kind of "reverse implied odds" hands. Your opponents have to fllop somethin for you to get any more money out of them.

    Wish I had some specific advice, but this is why I don't play much NL cash.

  3. #3
    Poker Expert NoManner's Avatar
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    Default

    I remember you were always pretty good at NL SNGs, why don't you do those instead?

  4. #4
    Chaser
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    I try to keep pots small when I have a big pair un improved. Especially on flops like that, because, well, what on earth could your opponent have that would reraise that you can beat? If they had A9, A8 JJ or other hands that you beat they will also probably want to keep the pot small so you don't have to worry much about getting raised, only by stronger hands.

    For example, say you each have 200 chips at a 1/2 blind game and the board comes 3 8 9, there is 30 in the pot. I wouldnt bet like 30 or 50 or some big bet, I would bet maybe 15, then maybe 20 on the turn. This way a bigger hand probably wont reraise me all in, they will try to get value instead and I can keep the pot small and not lose as much if im behind, but also, with these small bets I keep in hands like A9 or JJ which I am dominating.

    Basically, the biggest mistake I see people make with big pocket pairs is betting them too strong scaring out any hand you can beat and only leaving in the pot hands that have you crushed. KK on a 3 8 9 board is a good hand, but its still justs a pair of kings.


    Quote Originally Posted by KiD[ReD]
    I apologize in advance if this has topic has been created before.

    I've started ringing again, slowly and painfully working my way back up to the .5/1 tables, and I seem to do well and play very well EXCEPT for a repeated problem I keep having.

    I've had this problem ever since I started poker; oh sure I quickly became aware of it, and I'm aware of it constantly, but I still have problems with it.

    Basically it'll be when I have a big pocket pair such as AA or KK. I'll bet or raise PF to around 4bb (sometimes 3bb, sometimes 5bb etc. depending on the scenario). I'll have one or two callers, with one of them having something along the lines of AK, AQ, or JJ, and the other coming in with a 33, 77, or 88.

    So for example, let's say I have KK and I'm mid-position. I had one person before me limp in, I raise to 4bb, I get a flat caller before the button, and the limper calls.

    The flop comes: 389 rainbow

    The limper checks, I bet the pot, late positioner calls, limper calls.

    Turn comes: 2

    limper checks, I bet pot, late position reraises me all-in, limper folds, I call and he shows his 88..

    I lose all my money in similar situations like this, where people will come in for 4 or 5 bb with a pp, sometimes after limping in, sometimes after cold calling.. and they'll do this when it's just me in the pot too. This is definitely the #1 way I lose money on the ring tables and which is why I suck at ring tables.. so i'd like to overcome this.

    Is this profitable for the pp limper? If they know I have a big hand and are hoping to flop a set otherwise fold, are the implied odds great enough for them? I thought it most definitely wasn't, since you're not going to flop a set often enough.. AND.. you have to hope there's not a A, K or Q on the flop because you can get hurt from a higher set...

    Should I start doing the small pp trick too? It works great against losers like me, heh. Also, does anyone know the EXACT probability percentage of flopping a set? I'm curious..

    Anyhow, help would be appreciated, thanks.

  5. #5
    Poker Professional Pok 7's's Avatar
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    Seems that the smaller limit tables people tend to call just about any raise with a PP or sometimes even less than that, and even chase it to the river. Which can be good or bad depending on the board, depending on how the table is I'll sometimes raise 7-8x BB with AA or KK and STILL get 2-4 callers, I think in the long run you'll get paid off better but sometimes you're just gonna get cracked anyway. Alot of people love to limp in with small PP and will even call up to 3-4x BB easily at the lower limits (at least from my findings but I'm on penny tables now) . I almost get the feeling with a 3-4xBB raise alot of times you'll get even more callers hoping to bust a big hand especially if no big cards come on the flop.
    If you're looking to borrow money or have someone give you money in order to play poker online please don't contact me... Click Here for help , and explain your situation.

  6. #6
    Fish
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    Default

    The play is profitable if the implied odds are there. If you have shown yourself to be a bit too predictable and a bit too tight-aggressive, he will put you on AA-QQ when you come firing from MP. Assuming you and your opponent have decent-sized stacks, what your opponent is looking to do is get paid off big when he hits his set or get away cheap and fast when he misses.

    As for odds (assuming I know anything about math), I would think the odds for hitting a set on the flop would be about 12%, or a bit worse than 7-to-1. That's because you have 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 to hit one of two cards for your set when the flop comes. If you consider the entire hand (combining the chance of all five community cards), you have about a 20% to make your set, or 4-to-1 (the obvious odds of an underpair vs and overpair preflop). If you are looking to hit your set on the turn (or the river), you would be 2/47 (or 2/46), which is about a 4% chance, or 23-to-1.

    As a side note to odds calculating, you could do very rough estimates by counting each card in the community as a 2% chance. So, if you have an open ended strait draw on the flop and you want to know the odds of hitting it on the turn, you would do 2% x 8 = %16. If you wanted to know the odds of hitting your nut flush on either the turn or the river, you would do 4% x 9 = 36%. And say you want to know the odds of hitting an Ace OR a King on the flop with Big Slick; you would do 6% x 6 = 36%. It might not be exact, but I would bet hitting an Ace OR King on the flop (or any two different cards for that matter) is a 2-to-1.
    Last edited by Method; 10-03-2005 at 11:14 AM.

  7. #7
    Check Raiser Aces-o-8s's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KiD[ReD]
    Should I start doing the small pp trick too?
    Also, does anyone know the EXACT probability percentage of flopping a set?
    Getting a big pp cracked is always tough but a statistical part of the game. Last week I had pocket KK and QQ in 2 consecutive hands and both got cracked one right after the other!!!

    You already have good advice and the Mehtod gave good odds calculatons so no need for me to cover the same stuff twice except to point out an obvious truth so many of us tend to blind ourselfs to. Although stats point out that(as a starting hand) :
    A-A will win 85% vs 1 opps, 73% vs 2 opps and 63% vs 3 opps.
    IT WILL ALSO LOSE 15% vs 1, 27% vs 2 AND 37% vs 3!!

    The same tables point out that:
    8-8 will win 64% vs 1, 49% vs 2 and 33% vs 3
    AND LOSE 36% vs 1, 51% vs 2 and 67% vs 3.
    Thats pretty obvious I know but so many look at only the win side and blind side themself to the loss side.
    How to best use the info is advice you have probably gotten several time before - Poker is not a game of cards plyaed by people but a game of people played with cards!
    Who is this guy raising you all-in? Is he the type to risk such a large bet on a bluff or just a single pair against a big pf raiser? Would he need two pair or trips to go all-in?
    Another tough question too often not asked is - AM I BEAT?

    As for your question should you be playing small pocket pairs too - absolutely. Just be prepared to dump them the 88% of the time they don't flop a set! Personally I play 22 thru 55 only from the button or blinds as they are such all-time consistant losers from any other position. When a pocket pairs does flop a set that 12% of the time, they go on to win 83% - BUT STILL LOSE 17% - of the time!!!

  8. #8
    The Forefather KiD[ReD]'s Avatar
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    Default

    Hmm okay thanks guys, I like gaash's comments best here. I think my problem lies in that fact that I always give players no credit for hands... non-good players that is. I believe that they will either try bluffing me out or thinking their top pair is best... so I'll try to be a bit less aggressive post-flop...
    KiD[ReD]
    Ex-Owner/Administrator
    Merendi Networks Inc. (Merendi.com)

  9. #9
    Fish
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    The same tables point out that:
    8-8 will win 64% vs 1, 49% vs 2 and 33% vs 3
    AND LOSE 36% vs 1, 51% vs 2 and 67% vs 3.
    I'm not a fan of averaged hand performance statistics. This makes 88 look better than it really is. I think what this data suggests is that against all possible hand combinations, 88 will win 64%. That is fine by me, but it does me little good at a poker table, because you are hardly ever against a random hand. When someone limps or raises PF, you already know a good portion of the possible starting hands is not going to be against you. When a TAG raises from MP, you can be certain it would be a coinflip at best.

    The beauty of AA is that when you are playing it against one opponent, he is at least a 4-to-1 dog to your Bullets, no matter what his hand is (except AA of course). If he has one Ace in his hand, he is in even worse shape.

  10. #10
    The Forefather KiD[ReD]'s Avatar
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    Bad preflop raise? Should have made it more I guess?:

    PokerStars Game #2719084037: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/10/03 - 17:36:14 (ET)
    Table 'Hencke' Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: Blue Knight1 ($4.75 in chips)
    Seat 2: Bloodslug ($24.65 in chips)
    Seat 3: Fox09 ($14.40 in chips)
    Seat 4: KiD[ReD] ($66 in chips)
    Seat 5: crk666 ($28.85 in chips)
    Seat 6: right ($64.40 in chips)
    Seat 7: reddog03 ($14 in chips)
    Seat 8: Pøbel ($20 in chips)
    Seat 9: unlucky_rob ($13.60 in chips)
    reddog03: posts small blind $0.25
    Pøbel: posts big blind $0.50
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to KiD[ReD] [Ad Ac]
    unlucky_rob: raises $1 to $1.50
    Blue Knight1: folds
    Bloodslug: calls $1.50
    Fox09: folds
    KiD[ReD]: raises $1.50 to $3
    crk666: folds
    right: calls $3
    reddog03: folds
    Pøbel: folds
    unlucky_rob: calls $1.50
    Bloodslug: calls $1.50
    *** FLOP *** [7d 7c Jd]
    unlucky_rob: bets $2
    Bloodslug: folds
    KiD[ReD]: raises $3 to $5
    right: raises $4 to $9
    unlucky_rob: folds
    KiD[ReD]: raises $6 to $15
    right: raises $46.40 to $61.40 and is all-in
    KiD[ReD]: folds
    right collected $42.55 from pot
    right: doesn't show hand
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot $44.75 | Rake $2.20
    Board [7d 7c Jd]
    Seat 1: Blue Knight1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: Bloodslug folded on the Flop
    Seat 3: Fox09 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: KiD[ReD] folded on the Flop
    Seat 5: crk666 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: right (button) collected ($42.55)
    Seat 7: reddog03 (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 8: Pøbel (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 9: unlucky_rob folded on the Flop
    KiD[ReD]
    Ex-Owner/Administrator
    Merendi Networks Inc. (Merendi.com)

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