Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Page 1 of 8 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 75
  1. #1
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    203

    Default An interesting hand

    Here's some food for thought for you guys ... an interesting hand I played a days back. The game is 5/10 NL at the borgata. I have $1000 in front of me, the other key player in the hand has got about 600.

    I am in mid position with KJo, I call the $10. Another player or two call behind me and the SB completes and the BB, my nemesis in the hand, calls.

    The board comes K J T giving me top two pair.

    It is checked to me and I bet $50, about the pot.
    I am check raised to 200 by the BB.

    I thought foir a bit and decided to fold.
    I was shown KT. The question is was my fold correct. Knowing a bit about the player (generally solid) it is very unlikely he is on a stone cold bluff; however, the rest is open for debate. Do you guys think this was a correct fold. For the record, I think it was not too difficult a fold, I'll explain why in a bit.

  2. #2
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    5,966

    Default

    Why did you open limp with KJ?

    Raise so on this flop you know what he has or doesn't have. If you raise and he calls AQ is not out of the realm of possibility nor is TT or JJ. You can also eliminate Q9 or KT as a holding since he wouldn't call a raise with this hand. the only other hand that might check raise here would be KQ which you beat.
    Read my musings on poker and life at Online Poker Examiner, Poker Examiner, PokerNewsBoy.com, and My Poker Blog

  3. #3
    River Rat
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    478

    Default

    Given the action that you described, the only hands that you should have been worried about were AQ, TT, and Q9. Presumably, your nemesis would have raised with JJ or KK. So I think you could have ruled those hands out. All other hands involving a K, you beat.

    Here, not knowing anything else about your opponent, I would probably have ruled out AQ and Q9 (out of the BB) because those hands would have been the nuts, and he wouldn't have wanted to chase you out (unless there was a flush draw present).

    That just leaves TT, and a big checkraise would make sense given the highly coordinated flop. Also, the preflop action makes sense because a lot of players will limp with TT when they are OOP and the pot is already 4 or 5 handed. If you think that your opponent would have played TT this way, then your laydown was a good one, even though you had the best hand. If you view his style of play differently, then you should have stuck around.

    Finally, I agree with your observation about the bluff. I don't think that this is a bluffing flop. It's too likely to have hit you and to have left you with redraws if you were behind. Thus, I would not view this flop as a good bluffing opportunity against a player in MP who had just bet the pot.
    Last edited by mxp2004; 09-15-2005 at 08:51 AM.

  4. #4
    River Rat
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    478

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O
    Why did you open limp with KJ?
    I am curious about this. In NL, I view KJ as a weak starting hand and generally one that I would fold from EP or MP.

    In LP, my approach to KJ depends on the action when it gets to me. If no one has entered the pot, I would open with a raise. If there were a bunch of limpers, I would probably limp, too, looking to see cheaply if I can get mugged by the flop.

    I think one of the reasons not to raise with KJ in EP or MP is that you can't be really confident of where you stand if you get calls behind you. Hands like KQ, AJ, and sometimes JJ or even AK will just call a raise from a solid player in an early spot, giving your raise the respect it deserves. That can make KJ difficult to play OOP on later streets if you just make a pair.
    Last edited by mxp2004; 09-15-2005 at 08:51 AM.

  5. #5
    PokerForums God
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    8,204

    Default

    Why are you playing 5/10NL if you can't answer this question for yourself?

  6. #6
    River Rat
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    478

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis68
    Why are you playing 5/10NL if you can't answer this question for yourself?
    C'mon beav... I think that this is an interesting and hand calls on a player to use his hand-reading skills.

  7. #7
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Long Island, NY
    Posts
    1,310

    Default

    I dont have a problem with a limp here. KJ O is not THAT good of a hand. If i was in LP with an unopened pot i am throwing up a raise, but not from MP...I just can't handle a re-raise, and anyone who calls me is bound to get a piece of the flop if its a good one for me. Marginal hands pre-flop lead to tough decisions post flop, and this was a tough decision.

    Top two pair...tough to lay down. But your opponent is telling you he has a hand here. I'd be putting him on at least top pair with a strt draw...he has a lot of outs even if you are ahead right now.............reluctant fold.

    Although if I was in a tourney with a chip lead I'd probably push if i have him covered.

  8. #8
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    203

    Default

    Thanks for the helpful responses. Its always helpful to see how other people look at hands.

    I agree with you (Antneye) on the limp. KJo is not a very strong hand particularly not in the bigger NL games were players limping with very strong hands is very common, as are limp reraises, and on the flip side calls in position with much weaker holdings followed by strong bets on the flop.

    Anyway if any of you care, Here was my logic for a fold. Sorry its a bit long

    I put my opponent on either KJ, KT, Q9, or maybe JT. AQ is a possibilty, a lot of players will not raise this in the BB, and so was TT. JJ and KK would probably lead to a raise. JT is possible, but I think that play is too strong for JT, a quite vulnerable hand on this board, but it is very possible.

    Now, though it looks like I beat 3 out of 4 possible holdings, digging deeper, the probability that he has Q9 is actually = to the chance he has KJ or KT or JT combined!. There are 16 ways for him to have Q9, where as there are only 4 other combos of KJ (since i have KJ and KJ is on the board), 6 combos for KT, and another 6 for JT. Since I weighed JT somewhat less likely than the others, I figured I'm 4/32 chance to split, 12/32 to be very far ahead and 16/32 chance to be very far behind. Then there are the other less likely possibilites which probably have me in very bad shape (AQ, TT), with the exception of KQ, which I am ahead of, but not by THAT much (I lose to 4 As, 4 9s and 3 Qs barring my redraws) I was looking at 150 call into a 250 pot with the potential to lose a lot more money if Im behind. I figure all the money is going in regardless of the situation, unless I am against KQ or maybe JT. That is BAD for me, because that makes less situations where we get it all in and I have him beat. Still though, I was getting some odds here (I would think about it more as 550/600 to win 700/750) which made the decision a bit more difficult.

    So Lol... i guess it was quite a difficult fold ... contrary to what I said before. (At the time...my thought process was more, I dont think he would make the move with JT, so against the distribution of KJ, KT and Q9 with outside chances of TT, AQ and JT, I have a 16/26 chance to be way behind, 4/26 chance to be in a tie, and 6/26 chance to be way ahead. A much more clear fold. However, when you factor in JT as a likely holding, the analysis becomes more difficult, and interesting. One key is to look not just at what holdings, but how likely each holding is in terms of simply how many possible combinations of cards give that holding.



    Quote Originally Posted by Antneye
    I dont have a problem with a limp here. KJ O is not THAT good of a hand. If i was in LP with an unopened pot i am throwing up a raise, but not from MP...I just can't handle a re-raise, and anyone who calls me is bound to get a piece of the flop if its a good one for me. Marginal hands pre-flop lead to tough decisions post flop, and this was a tough decision.

    Top two pair...tough to lay down. But your opponent is telling you he has a hand here. I'd be putting him on at least top pair with a strt draw...he has a lot of outs even if you are ahead right now.............reluctant fold.

    Although if I was in a tourney with a chip lead I'd probably push if i have him covered.
    Last edited by gaash; 09-15-2005 at 10:54 AM.

  9. #9
    River Rat
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    478

    Default

    That's an interesting math approach to the problem, and from that perspective, your action makes a lot of sense. It's very reasonable and well thought out.

    The only issue I would raise is one that I mentioned in my original post: why, in the absence of a flush draw, would someone with a made straight overbet the pot? With a made straight, a rainbow flop, and one opponent left, I'd have an excellent opportunity to extract more money from you without incurring too much additional risk.

    If I were your opponent, I'd like the fact that you bet the pot and drove everyone else away. I'd figure that you had a hand, but not a made straight, and I would probably smooth call the flop to make it appear as if I am drawing. Given the size of your flop bet, I would expect you to bet the turn as well, and I'd be planning to make my move there.

    Would you play a flopped straight any differently? And if you wouldn't, then while the math says that there are more ways to make Q9 than the other hands you think he might have, don't have you discount those odds by how a solid player would play those cards if he had them?

  10. #10
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    203

    Default

    I agree. That is definitely a consideration and many players would have waited for the turn. Some reasons for trying to get money in on the flop though, are as follows:

    (1) There are very few draws on the board that can't beat or tie the made low straight. This would make less incentive for him to give free cards because if I miss I ain't paying him shit and if I hit, I probably have him tied or beat.

    (2) If I have a strong hand like two pair, it is best for him to try to get the money in now, while he is a big favorite, and most players pay him big here. No point letting cards come out that might scare me out of the pot.

    (3) If I have a pair, I probably am not gonna pay him much more unless I hit my trips. The board is simply too scary to bother especially after a check - call a pot size bet.

    Breaking down the hands into these 3 sets of hands (a draw, a pair, a strong hand (2 pair/set) making the move on the flop looks like a stronger play than waiting, IMO. However, I definitely see arguments for the contrary, particuarly against certain players who would not be afraid to bet top pair strong here. Since top pair is more likely than two pair, if you believe your opponent will bet the top pair big on this scary board, waiting is probably a better play.


    Quote Originally Posted by mxp2004
    That's an interesting math approach to the problem, and from that perspective, your action makes a lot of sense. It's very reasonable and well thought out.

    The only issue I would raise is one that I mentioned in my original post: why, in the absence of a flush draw, would someone with a made straight overbet the pot? With a made straight, a rainbow flop, and one opponent left, I'd have an excellent opportunity to extract more money from you without incurring too much additional risk.

    If I were your opponent, I'd like the fact that you bet the pot and drove everyone else away. I'd figure that you had a hand, but not a made straight, and I would probably smooth call the flop to make it appear as if I am drawing. Given the size of your flop bet, I would expect you to bet the turn as well, and I'd be planning to make my move there.

    Would you play a flopped straight any differently? And if you wouldn't, then while the math says that there are more ways to make Q9 than the other hands you think he might have, don't have you discount those odds by how a solid player would play those cards if he had them?

Page 1 of 8 12345 ... LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •