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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > Bad play or bad luck

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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 12:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antneye
Gaash,

If you aren't going to read the rest of the post, communication and the exchange of thoughts is not possible.

If you want to be obstinate, then don't bother posting.
You basically made a claim that 1+1=3. What is the point of reading your (or anyones) argument for that? You're analysis assumes no implied odds, which is wrong in the vast majority of cases in poker. For example, if the game is 1/2 NL and we both have 1000$ in front of us. Say, I determine that you have AA for sure (this argument will work for a distribution of hands also, e.g. i put you on 50% AA, 30% QQ, or whatever). I have 55. The pot is $3. You bet $30. Since I know you have a big pair and will pay me off big if I hit my 5, even though I am only 1/5 to get the best hand (1/8 or so to beat you on the flop), I can win well over $150 if I do hit, so this is not taking away my odds and I should make the call, even though you just bet 10x the pot. In general, in a NL game, stack sizes are almost as important as pot size when determining how to 'kill someone's odds', or when making betting decisions in general.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 12:14 PM
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If you expect people to read your posts you can at least do them the courtesy of reading theirs.

Otherwise it's the equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and going

"neener, neener, neener."


Which is what small children do.


It's possible to disagree with someone with coming off like an arsehole.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gaash
You basically made a claim that 1+1=3. What is the point of reading your (or anyones) argument for that? You're analysis assumes no implied odds, which is wrong in the vast majority of cases in poker. For example, if the game is 1/2 NL and we both have 1000$ in front of us. Say, I determine that you have AA for sure (this argument will work for a distribution of hands also, e.g. i put you on 50% AA, 30% QQ, or whatever). I have 55. The pot is $3. You bet $30. Since I know you have a big pair and will pay me off big if I hit my 5, even though I am only 1/5 to get the best hand (1/8 or so to beat you on the flop), I can win well over $150 if I do hit, so this is not taking away my odds and I should make the call, even though you just bet 10x the pot. In general, in a NL game, stack sizes are almost as important as pot size when determining how to 'kill someone's odds', or when making betting decisions in general.
I still disagree with you. With implied odds you need to assess what you can reasonably expect to get from your opponent if you hit your card. This can allow you to reduce your required pot odds based on how much you can get from opponent. If you are on a flush draw and the flush hits the board, do you honestly think you are taking the rest of the guys stack? He's going to be scared by the flush completing on the board and only call a reasonable sized bet after the river. You are assuming you will get all of your chips in the middle and he will call...........if you make your calls with this logic you will (IMO) be making a -EV play.

I will consider my implied odds and allow myself to call the flush with as low as 3 to 1 odds..but if you bet 2X the pot I am folding....period. To you original point, if you make the 2X bet, and I am not on the draw, I am taking much more of your chips then you needed to lose.


And thanks for the support Irexes
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 02:20 PM
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If the board is Kd 8c 3c

and the pot is $5 and we each have $1000 in front of us. You would fold Ac 7c to a $10 bet....I rest my case. And Irexes ... i talk like an asshole cause its fun


Quote:
Originally Posted by Antneye
I still disagree with you. With implied odds you need to
assess what you can reasonably expect to get from your opponent if you hit your card. This can allow you to reduce your required pot odds based on how much you can get from opponent. If you are on a flush draw and the flush hits the board, do you honestly think you are taking the rest of the guys stack? He's going to be scared by the flush completing on the board and only call a reasonable sized bet after the river. You are assuming you will get all of your chips in the middle and he will call...........if you make your calls with this logic you will (IMO) be making a -EV play.

I will consider my implied odds and allow myself to call the flush with as low as 3 to 1 odds..but if you bet 2X the pot I am folding....period. To you original point, if you make the 2X bet, and I am not on the draw, I am taking much more of your chips then you needed to lose.


And thanks for the support Irexes
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 02:24 PM
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Oh and btw, your point you made at the end was exactly the point I was making in my original response ... that making that big bet to scare someone off a draw is often unadvisable because in the cases they are not on a draw it costs you big and in the cases where they are on a made hand that is substantially weaker than yours (say same pair, weaker kicker) they will fold a hand that they might have called a smaller (still -EV for them) bet.
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 02:54 PM
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important elements of any NL post

1. stack sizes
2. current pot size
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 09-14-2005, 03:29 PM
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Um...yea, I agree Beav,if you notice my reply,it's pretty vague, nothing in particualr pertains to that sitiuation - more like in ANY situation.

Stack size and Pot Size is a must-I think I got slapped for not putting that in in some of my previous posts! I just like how these guys continue to argue about who's right.

Hopefully the poster has learned something from this thread?

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However the players there are tight and just the flops are hit or miss IMO.
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 09-15-2005, 07:13 AM
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Thanks guys beleive it or not I did learn something
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