Sitting at a $100 NL game at the casino I play at I came across this hand.
The average raise at the table was around $15-$20 and the average stack was around $175.

Hero ($265) sits on the BB with .
5th position ($500) raises to $15.
5 Callers total (loose table) and I call w/ 99 knowing it is probably the best hand.

Read on 5th position is tight agressive. He has been sitting for about 5 hours based on table information and is big stack at the table.


Pot size is $60-$75.

Flop comes .
Hero ($240) Bets $20
4th Position ($200) calls $20
5th Position ($485) (Villian) raises to $80.
Hero has read on Villian as having AK unsure if suited or not. Pulled the exact same play w/ AK suited 20 hands before w/ same stature, etc. Hero knows that Villian has at least but not sure if the nuts have been hit.

What would you do?

A) Call the $60 reraise w/ top set and play the hand out trying for the boat and also to check whether Villian has flush.
B) Push all in for $160 more knowing that even if Villian has the 4 flush they will probably call due to pot odds.
C) Fold because you figure Villian has the flush.

Results to follow.

By calling the bet on the flop I think you are giving him an escape hatch, considering he doesnt have the nuts already. What I mean is that if he doesnt hit the flush on the turn I think he can still get away from this hand...with two cards to come its a little harder for him to back down.

Also I think if you decide to call the bet on the flop then you are almost committed to moving in on the turn if no spade comes...because if you don't you are just inducing the bluff anyway and will be faced with a decision...and of course you could always hit the boat and then there won't be much of a decision...it will be more like how many chips can you get out of him.

If you are up against the nut flush on the flop with your set then I guess it was just unlucky...it happens.

From the post it sounds like we know he has the and a random king. This means 1/4 of the time you're a 65:35 dog and 3/4 of the time you're a 71:28 favorite. If he is guaranteed to call if you push, you should obviously do it. You're about a 3:2 favorite (slightly better)here IF he has to have the ace of spades and a random king. On a side note, if he has AA with the ace of spades you're still about a 13:7 favorite here.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

I would double his raise. if he has AK with the Ace of spades here are the possibilities, Although are you completely discounting AA with the Ace of spades here?






1 out 4 times you are beaten but are only a 65/35 dog

3 out of 4 times you are a 70/30 favorite

The reason I double his raise is to make him commit to going all in on the turn regardless of what hits.

He will either call, with AK offsuit or move all in with AKs if you raise it to 160 on the flop. If he calls you simply bet your remaining 80 on the turn where his odds are enough that he will call, there would be about 480 in the pot giving him the right odds to call 80 to a 9 (but its really 7) outer.

If you are beaten already all his money will be in on the turn. The trick is to get all his money in when he is behind, you're giving him a free card on the turn if you only call, and if he is savvy and realizes that your call means you will probably see the showdown unless another spade hits he will take his free card and just check fold the river.

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I find your response in this thread shallow, and pedantic...

So basically what I said ^^

Oh and what happens when the 4th spade comes?

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

numbers wise what you said. but you said go all in if he'll call, my play is quite different

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I find your response in this thread shallow, and pedantic...

If you make a weak raise, you're giving him the right odds to draw to 4th? Thats a mistake.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

READ MY POST, I want him to call, raissing all in still gives him the right odds to call. the pot would be 350ish for him to call 160.

the worst thing that could happen here is if you give him a reason to fold on a flush draw

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I find your response in this thread shallow, and pedantic...

Ok I'm still missing what happens when a 4th spade falls.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

you still call since now you are getting odds.

It isn't about ahead/behind it is about forcing him to call bets when he is behind.

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I find your response in this thread shallow, and pedantic...