Brillant bluff or wild play?

**Phytopath** · 09-02-2005

Again at Pokerroom, the only hands I seem to win here are the ones where I totally suck out on someone, go figure. Jarl xxx I know is a complete maniac and plays every hand and quite wildly, Skinny I was reading as a fairly solid player though he had just arrived at the table.

Texas Hold'em $0.50-$1 (real money), hand #1,228,037,110

Seat 1: Lagolas ($17.30 in chips)
Seat 2: BUZZDAWG ($22.05 in chips)
Seat 3: jarl xxx ($46.80 in chips)
Seat 4: skinny1234 ($19.30 in chips)

Seat 5: Phytopath77

($11.70 in chips)
Seat 6: chrisand ($31.40 in chips)
Seat 7: jpereira ($51.50 in chips)
Seat 8: xxcncxx0559 ($25.50 in chips)
Seat 9: tkctnt ($24 in chips)
Seat 10: StefanoR ($39.60 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
chrisand posts blind ($0.25), jpereira posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
xxcncxx0559 calls $0.50, tkctnt folds, StefanoR folds, Lagolas folds, BUZZDAWG folds, jarl xxx calls $0.50, skinny1234 bets $1, Phytopath77 bets $1.50, chrisand folds, jpereira folds, xxcncxx0559 calls $1, jarl xxx calls $1, skinny1234 bets $1, Phytopath77 calls $0.50, xxcncxx0559 calls $0.50, jarl xxx calls $0.50.

from the pre-flop action Skinny was representing a big hand, and so I thought so was Jarl

FLOP

xxcncxx0559 bets $0.50, jarl xxx calls $0.50, skinny1234 bets $1, Phytopath77 bets $1.50, xxcncxx0559 folds, jarl xxx calls $1, skinny1234 bets $1, Phytopath77 calls $0.50, jarl xxx calls $0.50.

I though decent flop, I had 4 to the flush and put the others on a big pocket pair

TURN

jarl xxx bets $1, skinny1234 calls $1, Phytopath77 folds.

well thats an awful card, down to 6 outs max figured from the pre-flop action I have to get out

RIVER

jarl xxx checks, skinny1234 checks.

SHOWDOWN
jarl xxx shows [ KH,6S ]
skinny1234 mucks cards [ 6C,JC ]
jarl xxx wins $16.75.

I mean honestly what the hell are they doing capping the action with that?

SUMMARY
Dealer: Phytopath77
Pot: $17.25, (including rake: $0.50)
Lagolas, loses $0
BUZZDAWG, loses $0
jarl xxx, bets $5, collects $16.75, net $11.75
skinny1234, loses $5
Phytopath77, loses $4
chrisand, loses $0.25
jpereira, loses $0.50
xxcncxx0559, loses $2.50
tkctnt, loses $0
StefanoR, loses $0

**PJ of TheGame** · 09-02-2005

I don't know about putting in the third bet preflop with AQs in middle position.

That's a good flop for you, but i wouldn't have been raising with it. I'd want to catch a flush and it doesn't look like the extra betting does anything good for you. Nobody's gonna fold, nobody's gonna give you a free card.

I would have also folded the turn. 22 beats you now even if you do hit your flush.

Your opponents obviously suck... so just wait and next time they do that you WILL have a hand and you'll take all their money. NP.

**growlers** · 09-02-2005

The only possible answer is that these people are idiots.
With that said, you ARE getting 17:1 on a turn call with theoretically 6 outs, so one could argue to call, but an A decent chance you split and a Q loses to AA KK. So even though you have sufficient odds to call assuming 6 outs, can't really assume that so that reduces it more to 3-4 range. This is still in the 11-15:1 range so a call may be correct despite the writing on the wall, and you do have position. It is probably mathmatically +EV or at least even to call, depending on reads, since you close the turn betting. Just food for thought.
We will hope/assume no one has a 4 in a capped pot preflop.

P.S. PJ - good post on the preflop action - but the flush is toast, getting a flush isn't even a .1% consideration as you would (normally lol) assume somebody has at least a mid pocket pair so therefore the flush is a loser

**Beavis68** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by PJ of TheGame

I don't know about putting in the third bet preflop with AQs in middle position.

That's a good flop for you, but i wouldn't have been raising with it. I'd want to catch a flush and it doesn't look like the extra betting does anything good for you.

Ever heard of Pot Equity?

It is unlikely anyone has a 4, so you probably have 15 outs twice.

And yeah, you gotta call the turn. Even if your opponent has KK you have enough outs.

**Phytopath** · 09-02-2005

In this situation I figured that I was at best up against a medium PP, so at best I figured 3 outs. From the cap pre-flop I'm more thinking there are a good chance of QQ,KK,AA.

I probably should have just called the 2 bets on the flop to build the pot, instead of driving the 4th player away.

That being said these people are idiots and I am having trouble figuring them out.

Thanks for the input, I just couldn't figure I had enough outs though I suppose I did, I was thinking best case 6 and fairly high probability I was drawing dead.

**Phytopath** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by growlers

We will hope/assume no one has a 4 in a capped pot preflop.

nope but they each had a 6

**growlers** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

Ever heard of Pot Equity?

It is unlikely anyone has a 4, so you probably have 15 outs twice

And yeah, you gotta call the turn. Even if your opponent has KK you have enough outs.

I usually agree with you Beavis, but I don't buy that - I think he has 15 outs on the turn but against most players you only have at best 6 on the river. I know it didn't work out that way, but when we do hand analysis I think we need to assume that the other players aren't total morons LOL! Again, I think a call is clearly correct balancing all the math, but I don't think you are hoping to get the flush.

And you are correct, against KK he barely has pot odds to call to get an A but that is assuming no one else has a A, which I don't know that you can assume.

And once again your arguement for pot equity is spot on, remember I was a fighter for that theory with you on the AK discussion, but with AQs with two callers and a raise it is not quite the same thing. Three callers, then you clearly raise because of pot equity, but in the scenerio presented I don't see how you could argue that calling or raising is a bad play by much either way. I think one could argue for either course of action but I don't think either way is correct or incorrect by MUCH. I would be inclined to call since the raise was to your immediate right in hopes of keeping it a multway pot since you are suited with position.

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