shall i fold my set here?

**Bobby** · 09-02-2005

level one of a live SnG, 7 handed

starting stack = T1000 everyone about even, blinds 10/20.

i am in MP with

,

EP limps, 1 fold, i limp, folds to button who calls, sb completes, bb checks.

flop =

sb checks, bb bets 400, EP calls

what should i do here?

i feel that i cannot call as i would be in the same position of not knowing if anyone has a flush but with 400 less chips. i feel that if i raise it has to be all-in.

if i raise all-in and am called by a flush i realise i have some outs to a FH

in this game a massive overbet is more often a made hand than a bluff, and people tend not to bet out with unmade drawing hands.

so do i A fold, or B raise all-in?

**Phytopath** · 09-02-2005

Tough spot, you don't have much in the pot so you could consider folding. If the guy does have the flush you are drawing to 6 outs on the turn and probably 9 on the river.

The guy probably has the nut flush draw, so I would lean towards pushing depending on your read.

**xxdemexx** · 09-02-2005

All-in.

You'll get the following underdogs calling:

Kx (trying to protect tp against the flush draw.)
Kx where x=good diamond
two pair
Ax A= diamond.
lower set (offset by higher set prob)
Even a slow played AA might happen

Even with a made flush you've got outs: If he has a weak flush then he needs to bet stronger.

Majority of time everyone will fold to your all-in here I think even a weak flush will fold depending on your opponent.- nothing lost but an ok pot gained and ppl will see you're ready to go all-in at any point in the tourney. This might give you a blind or two later on .You can't give away a free card.

You can't worry about what will eat you .. look at the weak hands that won't beat you and are consistent with the betting pattern which are likely to follow an all-in then push.

It's more important to double your stack in a tourney than stay in. If you double your stack and knock someone out your are virtually in the money here - its a double whammy. If you bust out then your closer to starting the next SnG

**LearnPoker** · 09-02-2005

Hmmm, not sure why you didn't raise it pre flop since the guy in EP only limped but that is besides the point. Yeah it's time to move in! Even though odds are one of the 2 other people has a diamond it could be weak. You have a 28% chance for a boat if someone does have a flush or draws out and catches. It's a +EV IMO.

**Bobby** · 09-02-2005

no-one wants to get knocked out early and it rarely happens, BB definetly does not want to get knocked out this early.

BB is tight and does not bluff that much. if i raised all-in and he showed a flush draw i would be very surprised. i think it would be the first time i would have seen this guy make such a move at this stage of a tourny. i do not recall seeing him make this kind of bluff.

EP i would not rule out his call being a flush draw such as deme described above

**Beavis68** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by Bobby

no-one wants to get knocked out early and it rarely happens,

Where do you play?

**bonchkid** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by LearnPoker

Hmmm, not sure why you didn't raise it pre flop since the guy in EP only limped but that is besides the point. Yeah it's time to move in! Even though odds are one of the 2 other people has a diamond it could be weak. You have a 28% chance for a boat if someone does have a flush or draws out and catches. It's a +EV IMO.

+EV and IMO opinion shouldnt be used together like that. If you don't show any mathing leaning towards +EV then why do you say that? Pulling numbers out of your ass? Ugh.. the entire forum needs to stop that(except beav/marm/deme/ and a few others who always show the math ^^)

**Bobby** · 09-02-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

Where do you play?

this is a home game, and can be a little strange at times.

(i think each different home game has its own characteristics)

by early i mean the 1st level.

**Marm** · 09-02-2005

Its simple, If he doesnt bluff, You fold.

If you think he can bluff, and you think the % chance of him doing works out to +EV, then Push.

If you still can't figure it out, call, and hope the board pairs.

But the next question is, can he lay down a weak Flush?? Lets say he hobbled into this pot with crap like 62s. You push in here, Does he lay it down? If you think he can lay down, say a T high flush, then I'd push.

"But he has odds to call Marm!" Of course he does, And he knows that. Thats why he's goign ot lay it down. He knows Bobby wouldnt push here without a great hand since he knows bobby knows he is goign ot call. The overbet indicates he doesnt want action, and therefore has a weak flush. He knows this, Bobby knows this. So he will know he is beat when Bobby pushes, and will fold.

Or at least he will in my world where they voted me king.

**PJ of TheGame** · 09-02-2005

Nice post Marm

I definantly think this is a great spot for a semi-bluff, especially since as you said, there are a ton of hands that have him beat but that could get folded to an all-in raise.

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