MTT : 300 fpp satellites 9 players make the money, 25 left. Average stack 6000, I have 5200. Blinds 100-200.

UTG: Call (weak play, he plays a lot of hand with any suited, AXs, and good hands (of course))

Folded to me on the button :KJo, I call
Blinds also call

Pot = 800

Flop : KQ5 (2 spades, k5)

BLinds check, UTG bet 400.

First thought : he is on the flush drwa and want to draw cheaply, may have any 2 cards under the Q, or AQs. Also, he can have the K with a lower kicker. I was 80% confident with that so I bet 1200 (the pot) which is 800 more. Blinds fold and he calls.

Now I think he is trying the draw. AQ would have reraised (the way he plays) and he would have folded crappy hand.

Pot = 3200.

Turn 5: Perfect

He bets 400 (try to buy a river cheaply). 95% confident, unless he slowplays KK or QQ.

How much do you raise here?

Pot is now 3600, I have 3800. If he is on a draw, he won't call my all-in, but if he slow-palys withh KK or QQ he will, so all-in is not good here. I want more money from the draw. He has 9 cards that helps him out of 46 = 1/5.1

So if I bet 1150 more, he is even money (without implied odds). So any bet over 1550 is a good bet for me.

What is your bet and why?

If he's a super weak player do you really think he is slowplaying top/mid set? Is KQ a possiblity? How many checks does he have?

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

if you have a read on him then go with it and push all in right there, the 95% confident part... i dont really like any other play myself because if u smooth call you are giving him the chance to hit if he is on a draw and if you raise it you are going to be pretty much pot commited

__________________
If there wern't luck involed i guess id win everyone

He has 400 more than me : so 5600 at the beginning of the hand.

If I push, I'm only called by hand that beat me, so that sucks, and he won't call with a draw, so I have to bet but how much?

I'm wondering if I see the hand the way I should???

Can you fold the river if a flsuh card hits after putting most of your stack in?

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

It depends of the size of the bet, but if he push all-in I will fold, 100% sure.

If you put him on the FD 95% sure, push the turn!!!!

you cant let the flush hit at this point. You already have a 20 BB pot and you should be happy about that IMO.

KJ

Why wouldn't I bet 2500, a bet that he may call and has a EV+ for me? This way I win more from the flush draw

Any bet above x is +chip ev. You're goal is to find the highest ev ^^

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

I push but thats just me. This close to qualifying do you think he wants to slowplay QQ or KK and let drawing hands in. Its hard to put him on much his betting is kinda retarded. you say he plays weak aces so is A5 a possibility? It wouldnt explain calling your raise but who knows with some of these guys.