If he calls, he is OOP, if the spade hits, we check/fold..... easy... and leave ourselves a few chips to manuever.

That is assuming we are not already beat on the turn, which I think we may be, so IMHO pushing is clearly a BAD idea...

Originally Posted by Fireball

MTT : 300 fpp satellites 9 players make the money, 25 left. Average stack 6000, I have 5200. Blinds 100-200.


First thought : he is on the flush drwa and want to draw cheaply, may have any 2 cards under the Q, or AQs. Also, he can have the K with a lower kicker. I was 80% confident with that so I bet 1200 (the pot) which is 800 more. Blinds fold and he calls.

Now I think he is trying the draw. AQ would have reraised (the way he plays) and he would have folded crappy hand.

Pot = 3200.

Turn 5: Perfect

He bets 400 (try to buy a river cheaply). 95% confident, unless he slowplays KK or QQ.

I thought we were using this analogy?
He said 95% confident. Different situation would play... different. I am going by this. He said he would call a bet on the river, but not an all-in. Why give himself that kind of decision? If you can lay the hand down getting laid those type of odds, that is fine. I dont know if he can. He needs to put himself in the best position to win.

Just one question... If you raise 3/4 the pot on the turn.... What do you do if he goes all-in over the top?