the average will be at 15000 when the satellite will be over so I need to triple up, this was a nice spot to double up or almost.

From my read, which I was confident he is on a drawing hand (not very good), not AQ.

He could slow-play KK, but he would have to bet more QQ, because his boat is vulnerable to any other K when the second 5 hits, but that's only 2 cards in the deck. There's a K in my hand and one on the board so he would need the other two KK and he would have slow played it, cahnces are very very slim.

I put him on 2 spades lower than q, could be j-10 or anything else.

From my calculations any bet higher than 1600 has a EV+ for me. But since there's a lot of money already in the pot, I should be fine with it, but why not win more? I'm 80% of the time winner after the river.

Thinking about it, a bet of 2500 would have commited me (pot of 6100 + 2100 if he calls with 1000 or so left). He may have called it too. That's what I should have betted.

I betted 1600 (1200 more), (I didn't calculated the odds that fast during a game, do you?) I thought that this was enough for me to have a good EV+, but it was breakeven.

He called, now 100% sure he is on a draw. Pot = 6400

low spades hit. DAMN

He bets 400 again. I'm thinking that this is weak, so weak, but I can't do anything else than call.

He had the flush! What an idiot! After betting 75% of his stack on a draw, he don't even get the full value of it by only betting 400 more... Eventhought, he became the chip leader.

I was pissed off. Part of it was because of me, part of it was because of the river but most of it was that he played a 79 like crazy, he didn't even have the nut flus, if I had AQs, he would have been drawing dead from the beginning. I hate when a player does a bad play and win, especially when it's a play I would never do (chasing a 2-way pot with 75% of your stack when you don't even have the nut flush).

because its a MTT... Where is the + EV if he hit and you go out of the money...

In a cash game I would agree 110%.

KJ

thats what makes poker great/bad there is no right style and even bad plays get rewarded sometimes

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If there wern't luck involed i guess id win everyone

Exactly. You want to get your money in with the best hand. Make him put his chips at risk to hit his draw.

This is not a spot to push, as Bionch said, there is a point where our EV is highest, and it is not a push.

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I would have forced him out of this hand before the board has a flush draw. I mean the pot is big enough for you to win already. Try going all-in if he has a flush draw he is only 25% chance of winning so don't worry.

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Theocpoker - remember that.

Well I would disagree. This is a tournament, not a cash game. But to each his own.

its simple. 3/4 pot bet is all we need here. You WANT him calling, you want him to make the mistake. HE makes the correct move of folding if we push, which then makes pushing the INCORRECT move.

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Bionch. James Bionch.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

pot =3600.
our chips= 3800.
Ok Betting 3/4 of the pot is 2700. So making the play correct in our favor leaves us 1100. The other player calls, not getting the right odds. And a spade hits, he bets 400. now what do we do? if we call we have 700 left knowing he was on the flush draw. If we fold, we were getting 2700+2700+3600+400=10,400 to 400 so 16 to 1 to call. Lets fold. We now are really short stacked with only 1100. blinds are at 200/100. Not much room.
Lets say we win. We bet 2700, he calls and no spade on the river. so the pot is 10,000. We have to assume he doesnt call our river bet - so we now have 11,100. Not bad. I assume we are chip leader now.
Ok lets push the turn if he folds we have 7400. if he calls, not getting the right value to call, and we win- we take down 12,600. If we lose we are done with the tournament. I dont see the risk/reward leaving yourself short chipped if he outdraws us? I like to get my money in with the best hand. With only 1100 left now we would have to just shove them in. any hand has us pot committed practically. no? am I wrong for thinking this?