Originally Posted by goose58

Unless he thinks you are full of shit..

Most tight/passive/weak players I know aren't really capable of making plays. Of course that is just a generalaztion.

Thanks for the responses. Luckily, I PM'd myself the hand so I wouldn't forget the results. I wanted action here, so I made a bet of $75 to look like I was full of shit to stay consistent with my play to that point and got called. I wanted him to put me on an AQ, AJ, or low pair and I thought that by looking like a bully would induce a call from a JJ, TT, 99, 88, or such. I figured a bet like $30 would increase this opponent's chances of folding one of these hands and with no hand and no draw, he won't fold whether I bet $30 or $75.

My greed put me in a do or die mode. I figured that I was getting what was in the pot there or taking a huge pot in the end.

Turn:

Villian bets $100. (This is all coming back to me like it was an hour ago.) I hated this card and didn't feel good about this hand anymore and folded after agonizing a bit, but concluding that I was drawing dead to a set and shows that Villian did feel that I was weak on the flop and was in fear of me getting a free river. After folding, he asked, "Straight draw?"

I smiled in a friendly way and said, "Yeah. I'm a moron." and gave him a "Nice hand." He didn't show and I didn't ask, but I wonder if he had AK now. The point is that I didn't feel good about this at all. 55, 77, and TT were all very possible (55 and 77 less possible, of course). Now, I do think he had AK and got cute on the flop. Do I make this fold tomorrow? I don't know. What do you think?

I would think that if he had me on the flop, he would've re-raised a $75 bet with AK if he put me on "full of shit." What am I saying? He wouldn't. I don't like this fold, but I didn't feel good about calling or raising.

Loved your play right up until you folded. I completely agree on the flop - he's expecting you to bet hard, and he's either got something and will put up a fight or will fold like the weak-tight he is.

I don't agree that he'd automatically reraise PF with KK, AK, or even with AA. He's weak tight for a reason, and it usually involves being somewhat risk averse (though you probably had a better read than I do). For all you know he's sitting on aces there, loving that you've paired your king and that you're in the driver's seat with the betting. He's probably thinking about how to extract every last nickel out of you, and is going to be totally blindsided when you show down your two pair. And if he really has the case 5's or 7's, well, life is too short to play scared of these hands.

I think the reason he comes firing away on the turn is not the ten, it's the second club. He thinks he's got a hammer lock on this one, if only you don't suck out the backdoor flush on him. While this seems ludicrous to us, it probably makes perfect sense to a weak-tight (who in the back of their mind always expect to get sucked out on).

I put the SOB all in right then and there (and bet he beats me to the pot calling with his big pair), and then hope to god the river doesn't pair anything other than 5's or 7's. If he's got a set of kings, then it's just my unlucky friggin' day, but I'd bet my grandmother's teeth that he only has one pair on the turn.

Thanks for the extra responses there, guys. I definitely agree on this being a raise or fold situation and with my opponent already investing $200 in the pot, it's an all in or fold situation.

I could beat AK, QQ, JJ, and 99, of the hands that I could put him on. KK isn't completely out of the question, but unlikely and the fact that I can beat AA cancels that out for me. TT, 55, and 77 are the other hands that I could see Villian holding PF that he would call on the flop. The probabilities of 55 and 77 are greatly lowered with a 5 and a 7 in my hand and on the board.

What hit me was the bet. With about $200 in the pot, he bet $100 after I bet the flop. I got the feeling that he wanted a call, but wanted me to pay for a draw.

With a set, he'd want a call, but same with AK. But would he want a call with QQ, JJ, or 99? Yeah, he puts me on a draw, but he's too tight to call the flop and bet $100 with an underpair IMO. My layman-in-the-moment numbers told me that I could only beat one 2-card combo, but lose to three (or 2.5, when we factor the improbability of 55 and 77). I won't factor KK because I think he pounces on the flop after my monstrousity of a bet.

Point well taken. I can't realy disagree because it still confuses me a bit. I've been back and forth on it periodically over the last couple of days since revisiting this hand.

Trust me, I've logged over 150K online hands and over 2,500 hours live. I'm not obsessive over hands like these. I just thought it was interesting. The length of that post is just a good introduction of me to you, Jason. I tend to speak in monologues at times.