Originally Posted by PJ of TheGame

Okay mookie, you're right.

However... what is that number USEFUL for if you're not using it in relation to betting... and why use it with a beginner who asked specifically about pot-odds?

because it's a discussion board...figured I'd start simple and get a discussion started and work from there.

it gets really complex when dealing with pot odds..how much is in there, how many callers before you/after you etc.

Originally Posted by mookie

there is a well known "cheat" for counting your odds after the flop.

lets say you have

and the flop comes.



pretty good flop for you. You have 4 hearts to the nuts and 2 over cards. Count the number of cards that you think help you.

Any heart (9 of them)

and likely any J (3 of them)

or any A (3 remaining)

that is 15 cards in the deck. Take this number and multiply it by 4 which comes to 60. that is the percentage of time that your draw will fill on the turn...this is usually right within 1%...so in this case, 60% of the time a heart, an ace, or a j will fall on the turn.

if it DOESN't come on the turn, take the same # of outs, but now multiply by 2, and again you have your percentage of it falling on the river..in this case, it's now 30%

there it is, straight from the horse's arse


9 hearts + 3 Jacks + 3 Aces = 15
15/47 (i.e. the 47 remaining cards) = 32% not 60%

and this is way you use outs times two, and not outs times four...apart from when you, or your oppoent are all in.

if you still disagree then kindly explain how your twice as likely to hit on the turn as opposed to the river when the only difference is one more known card?

"there it is, straight from the horse's arse"

Good on ya' with the hostility. do you beat your kids for spilling milk? For christ sakes, it is a discussion. did i sleep with your girlfriend again or something?

"9 hearts + 3 Jacks + 3 Aces = 15
15/47 (i.e. the 47 remaining cards) = 32% not 60%"

can you please refer to the links (multiple) that i included in this thread? I didn't write the damn philosophy. I merely made mention of a common tactic. Tons of people use it, I made the brutal mistake of referring to it in this thread. A mistake that will not be duplicated because I won't be returning after this topic...simply too many attacks. This is the most single sided/biased forum I've ever seen, heaven forbid someone states something against the grain, time to gang up and chirp in with two cents like "ignore this guy"


"if you still disagree then kindly explain how your twice as likely to hit on the turn as opposed to the river when the only difference is one more known card?"

I can't make heads or tails of what you're saying there. Of course you have more chances of your draw filling with 2 cards to come rather than 1.

what is it with the attacks on here? I got one guy telling others to ignore me, and another calling me a horses arse. Pretty sick/sad display for what is supposed to be a gathering of fans of the game.

I'm guessing a ban is coming soon enough for me.


yet another source for the dreaded math:

http://www.purepoker.com/poker/school/card_stats.php

someone write them to tell them to stpo spreading such filth.

The Quick and Easy 2 by 4 Rule for Calculating Odds.

As a general guideline to calculate the odds of making your hand, you count the number of outs you have and multiply by two for each card to come. For example, if after the flop you have four to the flush, you have nine outs to make your flush. With two cards to come you have approximately a 36% chance of making your flush if you stay till the river. ( 9x2x2) If you want to know the odds of making your flush on the turn, multiply your outs times two. So you would have approximately an 18% chance of making your flush on the turn. Remember (Outs times two times cards to come) This will give you a quick and easy way to calculate odds that will be close enough for the purpose at hand.

This chart shows the chances of making a hand on the turn, on the river, or both. Since these odds are based on outs, it's merely describes your chance for a card or cards to turn up based on the number of desired cards left and the number of cards left in the deck (47 or 46 for the turn and river). Most of the examples describe situations where you are not a lock to win, but explain the reasoning why that many outs is being assumed.

Outs times 2 is the percentage for making it on the river; outs times 4 is for the turn and river combined.

Now quit yer bickerin.

then there is this ROT as well.

*warning it too is different*

http://www.pokerjunkie.com/PagEd-index-page_id-72.html

with the example of 9 hearts, 3 JavaScript and 3as (15 cards) this theory gives a 31% chance

Mathematical Thinking
Playing poker involves making decisions, some complex and some simple. Any good poker player bases some of these decisions on whether or not it is mathematically correct. Percentages play a part in many decisions and good players know when it is right to call and when it is right to fold. Calculating outs is one of the most important concepts a poker player will ever learn. An “out” is any card that will improve your hand to a winning position. Good players know that when they flop a flush draw they have 9 outs to complete their hand. They also know they are an 8 in 1 chance of hitting a set on the flop when holding pockets. A quick way to calculate the % of making your hand on the next card is by taking your outs, doubling them and then adding 1.

Originally Posted by mookie

I'm simply saying that the formula I gave has ZERO to do with pot odds and bets you're facing.

Okay, but the question was ABOUT pot odds, so I assumed thats what you were referring to. I said that when calculating pod odds, you should always use the one card method (2 x outs) unless you don't face a bet on the turn (to which you replied quite clearly "that's incorrect").

Originally Posted by Girevik

Wanna bet? 4x is ONLY correct if you do not face the possibility of a turn bet.

This is correct. I'm not really sure what the point you're trying to argue is mookie. The discussion is supposed to be about pot odds and it seems like everyone has veered off target.

If you don't understand why this is true, you can pm me and I can go into a detailed explanation and will try my hardest to be polite.

However, for now I'm going to have to draw an end to this discussion since it's bringing on way too many problems.

If the original creator still has questions, please repost.

EDIT: I just reread this thread and I understand where the problem is. If anyone has issues, send them my way