How much of a dog are you.....

**Jiffman** · 08-16-2005

.....If you have AK and you're up against AA?? And how is this calculated?

I've read KK is 2 to 1 favourite against AK? Again, how is this calculated?

I can roughly calculate my percentage odds of making a hand after the flop - times your outs by 4 with two cards to come, and by 2 with one card to come - but how do you calculate pre-flop odds, or work out who is favourite when two hands are head to head pre-flop?

Eg...I know a pocket pair is about 55% to two overcards - a 'coinflip' - but how is this calculated, and how do you work it out for other head to head situations?

Also, I know an ace will flop 23% of the time....but how is this calculated? How would I work out how often two suited cards will flop, for example?

Do you just have to learn these sort of odds/stats by heart, or are there ways of working them out?

Or failing that....does anyone have a list of all this stuff so I can learn it by heart?!?

**xxdemexx** · 08-16-2005

go here and download pokerstove:

http://pokerstove.com

its free and is probably the best calculator around.

**Trons** · 08-16-2005

I'll take a stab at this one (again, so i can be corrected).

Not quite sure of the number, but you're a pretty big dog against AA. You need to put two K's on the board to win and avoid an Ace.

You answered your own question (Kind of). If up against KK, you need an ace. I believe it's 19% to flop an ace and 23% to have one hit the board. I believe this is calculated like this 3/50+3/49+3/48 (where the numerator is the amount of cards left in the deck to come out and the denomenator is the amount of cards left unseen in the deck). In the example above, I round the denomentor up to 50 across the board and that gives you 9/50 chance, or about 20% (take a point or two for the rounding). This seems to work for a single card for the flop. The more you have to round the greater the inaccuracy. I usually don't do this type of thing in my head when I'm playing

I believe for the PP vs over cards, you do basically the same thing but take into account the chance that you'll hit your trips.

Again, I usually don't worry about these numbers when I'm playing. If I have two painted cards and I'm playing the hand (depends on the cards, the other players, position and such), then I only continue playing after I see the flop and hopefully the action on the flop. I start my calculations after the flop based on the number of draws I have to win the hand.

**missy** · 08-16-2005

i'll give this a try.

odds of at least one ace on the flop, assuming none in your hand and you know no one else's cards: 4/50+4/49+4/48=about 24.5%. to do this i just took number of aces in the deck divided by number of cards and added them up for each of the three chances you have to get one on the flop.

KK vs. AK; odds of an ace by the river are 3/48+3/47+3/46+3/45+3/44=32.639%. that's where the majority of AK's odds come from...you can also factor in the odds of another king falling (1/48+1/47+1/46+1/45+1/44...so 10.880%) and take that away from AK cuz that means it loses, so that puts us at 21.759%, and then you could figure out the odds of another ace falling to make three aces even if a king falls (comes out to 17.393%, bringing AK's odds back up to 31.952%), and the odds of straights and flushes for each hand could be calculated blah blah blah. those are all gonna be fairly small but generally help out AK cuz it can make straights easier and flushes too if they're suited.

pocket pair vs. overs will be similar
55 vs. AK; odds of an ace or a king falling...6/48+6/47+6/46+6/45+6/44=65.28%. then take out the odds of another five (21.759%) and add in the odds of straights and flushes etc...

how often will two suited cards flop? assuming that you don't hold any cards of that suit: the odds for the first card of the flop can be just taken as one, since it's a card of any suit; you didn't specify spades or something. then the next card is 12/51 to be the same suit, and the third card is 12/50, assuming the second card wasn't the suit you're looking for. these add up to 47.529%. however, i'd guess that you're interested in this if you're holding two cards of that suit already, making it 10/50*(10/49+10/48), or 8.025%. hm i think i might have made up that last bit.

anyhow you kinda hopefully are getting the idea. or here's an easy way: odds calculator.

so far every single time i've tried to do a stats post, i've screwed it up in some way and been corrected multiple times. so these are probably pretty flawed. but yeah the basic idea is to count your outs and your opponents outs and how many cards are still unknown to you and how many tries you have to hit an out.

hope i made some sense somewhere...

edit: haha writing this took me so long that two other people got replies up before me. i hate math.

**Beavis68** · 08-16-2005

Originally Posted by Jiffman

.....If you have AK and you're up against AA?? And how is this calculated?

I've read KK is 2 to 1 favourite against AK? Again, how is this calculated?

I can roughly calculate my percentage odds of making a hand after the flop - times your outs by 4 with two cards to come, and by 2 with one card to come - but how do you calculate pre-flop odds, or work out who is favourite when two hands are head to head pre-flop?

Eg...I know a pocket pair is about 55% to two overcards - a 'coinflip' - but how is this calculated, and how do you work it out for other head to head situations?

Also, I know an ace will flop 23% of the time....but how is this calculated? How would I work out how often two suited cards will flop, for example?

Do you just have to learn these sort of odds/stats by heart, or are there ways of working them out?

Or failing that....does anyone have a list of all this stuff so I can learn it by heart?!?

www.twodimes.net is a good resource too.

pokerstove is great for comparing ranges of hands, but I use twodimes when I am looking at specific hands.

**Jiffman** · 08-16-2005

Wow that's all so helpful, cheers!

Thanks xxdemexx for the calculator - I downloaded it and have worn it out already testing the odds for so many possible combinations of head to head hands!

Thanks Missy and Irexes! I play live, so I was hoping to get some calculations...but you're right it's not the sorta stuff you can do in your head easily!! Gonna do it for lots of different situations and see where the patterns are...work out some simple way of roughly calculating this stuff on the fly.

Between using the calculator, and then working it out long hand, I'll have this cracked in no time!

What I was trying to say (was at work so it was a hurried post!), is if you've put your opponent on a range of hands, how can you work out your chances relative to what he might have (not that you'd call with AK if you thought your opponent might have AA lol!!!).

I want to be able to just say 'well I got xx off suit...if he's got xx I'm an x to x dog'...shit like that, like the pros do!

I always think of Jesus Ferguson's last hand when he won the WSOP in 2000. He called all-in with A9 to Cloutier's AQ. A lot of people say it was a really bad call and that hittin the 9 on the river was lucky...but Chris put TJ on a range of hands - small pair/med or big pair/ace+high kick/2 high cards - and worked out that out of all those he was, at worst, 5 to 2 against and at best, even money. So on balance, I think it was a good call! He worked out all his pre-flop possibilities and took a stand with his A9.

It's the kind of at the table analysis and calculating that all top pros seem to be able to do....and man I wish I could too!!!

**Jiffman** · 08-16-2005

And thanks too Beavis...twodimes is superb...wow I feel empowered with knowledge!!!

**PJ of TheGame** · 08-16-2005

There's only so many possible combinations

pocket pair vs... overpair, underpair... 2 cards higher, 2 cards lower

and then 2 cards vs 2 higher and vs 2 lower.

Finally, cases like AK vs. KK where AK has only one out to win... and hands like AA vs AK where they only have one out AND they have to hit two of them.

**kbrower** · 08-17-2005

I calculated the statistics for every starting hand vs every starting hand(10,000 flops per stat)

You can see them on my website(eg aces vs ak and kings vs ak )

**Marm** · 08-17-2005

You can also try www.GoCee.com where they have a much more extensive tables.

And really, 10k is not enough flops to get exact numbers, considering theres 2.6 million 5 card boards (give or take a few...), you can pheasibly end up with AK dominating AA with only 10,000 boards...

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