Ok what would you do in the following situations...
#1)A flip of the coin, 50% of everything you own, if you win you get 10X the value of what you own, if not you lose 50% of what u own...
wager: 50% of all you have
reward: 10X your net worth
#2) For all your money, you win you double it, you lose you lose everything on a bet you are 90% sure you are going to win.
wager: everything you have
reward: double your net worth
#3) Flip of the coin for all your money, you get 5x what you have if you win... You get three flips it only has to be haeads one of the times.
wager: everything you have
reward: 5x your money
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Thread: all or nothing... 3 situations
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08-08-2005 #1Banned
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all or nothing... 3 situations
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08-08-2005 #2
So let's say you have $1000
1) 50% of the time you end up with $500, 50% of the time you end with $10000 so total EV of $5250
2) 90% of the time you end up with $2000, 10% of the time you end up with $0 so total EV of $1800
3) Odds that you get heads at least once is 87.5% 87.5% chance to end up with $5000 and 12.5% chance to get 0 so total EV of $4375
Option 1 has best EV
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08-08-2005 #3Banned
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Yea option one has the best EV... But its for all my money on one flip, so Ev doesn't really matter. I'm never going to win $5250, $1800, or $4375. This is the average amount i will win over multiple trials. Because it is only one trial, i would take option 2. It has the worst EV, but i am a lot less likely to lose all my money.
Anyways, that is what i would do in real life. Theoretically, when it doesn't really matter, i would take option 1.
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08-08-2005 #4Banned
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its not about ev its about risking your life
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08-08-2005 #5Banned
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and im not asking you which one has the best EV im asking which if any situations would u take?
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08-08-2005 #6
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08-09-2005 #7
I'll take any in which the part that I lose includes my wife

I'm probably going with option 1...If a gun is at my head and I have to bet. this is the only bet that I can make that assures me that I will have something left over and I can rebuild if I have to.Trons
Originally Posted by Jason75
JstTrons
Toyotatruck

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08-09-2005 #8
Option 1
Easy choice. Its the only one where I only have to wager 50% of what I have and if I win I win more than any of the other choices. How is there a decision here? Anyone that wouldn't chose option 1?
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08-09-2005 #9
Brunson wrote in SS that he would make any of these types of bets even if he had to risk all of his wealth simply because of the odds being offered. He says he would risk losing it all because he knows he would get it back anyway. Odds rule all of his decisions....I just don't have the balls to do that.
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08-09-2005 #10
None of the above. Too big of an impact on my family if I DO lose - even a 10% chance of putting my kids out on the street is too much.
I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.
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