accepting a fair bet

**Bobby** · 07-28-2005

here is something interesting i read today.

in his chapter on multiple inflection points dan harrington talks about a hand where you have AK and are contemplating an all-in confruntation where your chance of winning exactly matches the odds the pot is offering you.

Quote: 'a fair bet increases the volitility of your position without increasing your equity' (dan harrington, harrington on holdem Vol).

he says most good players would pass here, but you should call if you feel you are weaker than the feild.

there have been discussions on whether the survival attitude is appropriate, or whether pot odds should be used to make such decisions.

my question is what factors should you use to decide whether survival is more important than pot odds in decisions you face at different stages of a tourny?

**Beavis68** · 07-28-2005

If you are not in the money or close to it the only thing that should be considered is how you compare to the field.

If you feel you are slightly below average, then your chance of doubling up is below 50%, so you need no overlay from the pot.

If you feel you are better than the field, say have a 55% chance of doubling up, than you need decent overlay to enter a pot where you figure to be 50/50.

"Survival" only has value when you are right near the money with a short stack, or are into the money where every spot gets paid more, and you are a short stack, or a medium stack surrounded by short stacks who are likely to bust.

**KINGJACK** · 07-28-2005

Wow...

Interesting question.

I would say, if your life is on the table at any stage of the tourney, you shouldn't call a double all in with anything else than AA or KK... without any other reads of course.

On the other way I think that if you have the oportunity to kick both of the players out , late in the tournament, already in the $$$ or close, (without risking more than 35-40% of your stack, you should go.

So guess my answer would be:
The only important factor in this kind of decision (excluding reads of course) is how winning or loosing will influance my placing in the tournament and the potential outcome of that MTT.

2 very easy example...
early in a rebuy tournament you have 1200... callibng is the move of course. you loose you fall to 1000 (not a big variation) you win you are at 3600 (yaaaaaaaaaa) and among the chips leader.

On the buble..
One of the player covers you... you fold... 1 time out of 2, 1 player is going out, letting you enters the money.

Just my 2 cents but it's pretty much how I play...

KJ

**Trons** · 07-28-2005

I'll say it again...WOW...great conversation and I can't wait to see some of the comments.

Personally, when deciding to "call" an all in bet, I look at my cards, my read on the other guy, and my stack. If I got him covered 7 ways to sunday, i'm calling with just about anything. If it's going to hurt me horribly, I better have a good read or I'm folding just about anything. If he's got me covered, I'm folding just about anything but AA or KK.

In a tourney, almost all my moves are about survival. I'll worry about winning once I get in the money. That being said, I have noticed that early moves give you a much better chance at making the money so I like making moves early when people are still playing tight. When it comes to all in moves, I use the criteria I mentioned above. I'm not doing well in SnG's lately, but I'm breaking better then even so I'll still learn.

**bonchkid** · 07-29-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

If you are not in the money or close to it the only thing that should be considered is how you compare to the field.

If you feel you are slightly below average, then your chance of doubling up is below 50%, so you need no overlay from the pot.

If you feel you are better than the field, say have a 55% chance of doubling up, than you need decent overlay to enter a pot where you figure to be 50/50.

"Survival" only has value when you are right near the money with a short stack, or are into the money where every spot gets paid more, and you are a short stack, or a medium stack surrounded by short stacks who are likely to bust.

Beavis is right on the money again. He must really be reading a lot of HoH!

**Antneye** · 07-29-2005

Agreed...Beav is on target.......and Harringtons books are unbelieveably good.

I am playing in the $3 NL Freezout on Starz tonight....every Friday at 10:30 or 11:30 (pretty sure its 11:30). It will be 1st MTT since finsihing Vol II. We will see if it helps.

Since finishing the book I have played 3 $5 SNG's and finished 1, 1, and 6.....The 6 was a bad call with exact scenario described here. I should have laid it down. I knew it was a race, I felt I was better than table and din't need to make the call, but I did anyway...dumb.

**Beavis68** · 07-29-2005

What is interesting about SnGs; you can make the money in some without doubling up. In the loose aggressive games, you have a ton of equity folding yourself.

I struggle with how to apply this stuff in SnGs, but I think part of it is that in the loose SnGs, you can have a much bigger edge over the field than you can have in big MTTs.

The reward for a good player gambling early isn't the same as in an MTT.

**Bobby** · 07-29-2005

cheers for the input, i am trying to improve my MTT game by moving away from a survival mindset

**Beavis68** · 07-29-2005

I need to move back to it a little, I am turning into to a complete raving maniac.

I have had two good chances to cash this week that I have blow getting too aggressive.

**eclinchy** · 07-29-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

I need to move back to it a little, I am turning into to a complete raving maniac.

I have had two good chances to cash this week that I have blow getting too aggressive.

Me too! But I guess that's because I'm playing more SNGs lately, and those require more aggression. Then again it's probably just that I SUCK at no-limit.

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