Laydown of the century?

**Keefter** · 07-14-2005

Okay this was an STT on VC last night $10.

I'm dealt Kc 5c in the BB, i'm currently medium stack 4 players remain. flop is Jc 7c 2h I raise 4 x BB, called by one player. Turn blank, raise again 50% pot (semi-bluff) called. River = 9c, pot sized raise from me - guy moves all in, I think about it and fold, he shows Ac 3c. phew.

Now - I'm not in the habit of folding K flushes normally - in fact never, but I had a good read on the guy, he was Tighter than tight and fairly passive, the kind that only bets with the nuts. well impressed with myself, he didn't beleive i'd layed down the hand i did.

**Beavis68** · 07-14-2005

I would go broke there 100% of the time. I never have people pegged well enough.

**Girevik** · 07-14-2005

I can't image that over time that laydown will be EV+. He could easily be pushing with ANY two clubs, since there are only 3 on the board.

**Antneye** · 07-14-2005

I don't like the Flop bet. Unless you had raised Pre-flop (which i doubt with K 5..although maybe in a 4 handed game) there is no point in making this bet. On the draw you want a cheap look at the turn or river....I probably would have checked/called here for the right odds. I am not looking to chase people out if I am on the flush draw, because more players in the bet can help me get the correct pot odds to call someones bet.

I have to agree with the laydown though. You cannot use the same statistics that we use for Ring games in a tournament. Forget +/- EV in a tourney. The bottome line is a bad call here and you are out of the tournament with no cash. The question I ask myself is am I willing to bet my tournament on this hand. Against a rock like this I am laying them down also. If I have seen this guy make all in moves with less than the nuts then i am calling him, but not if he is as tight as described.

**Beavis68** · 07-14-2005

Of course you use EV in tourneys, it is just that at some points, things besides strict chip counts come into consideration.

But I would like to know how many chips were left after the fold, what the average was, how close to the money, and how the game ended up.

**Antneye** · 07-14-2005

Beavis...

I shouldn't have said "Forget".....What i meant was that when the whole tourney is on the line, you have to think a lot more than just the odds of the play.

Example: If you are on a flush draw, and are getting 3 to 1 pot odds with 1 card left this is normally an easy call.....

But what if the call puts you all in...are you willing to get knocked out of the tournament just because you were getting good pot odds?

I am not. i need to make the money in better than 1 out of 3 to make an SNG profitable, so the pot odds dont translate. I play pot odds for most decisions, but when my entire stack is at stake I tend to err on the side of caution.

**slp** · 07-14-2005

this play is so far in the -EV it makes you look silly!

**bonchkid** · 07-14-2005

The real laydown of the century.

**Marm** · 07-14-2005

Originally Posted by Antneye

Beavis...

I shouldn't have said "Forget".....What i meant was that when the whole tourney is on the line, you have to think a lot more than just the odds of the play.

You really didnt just say that did you??? ahhhh man........

Try this What They Don't Understand About Tournaments

**Beavis68** · 07-14-2005

Originally Posted by Antneye

Beavis...

I shouldn't have said "Forget".....What i meant was that when the whole tourney is on the line, you have to think a lot more than just the odds of the play.

Example: If you are on a flush draw, and are getting 3 to 1 pot odds with 1 card left this is normally an easy call.....

But what if the call puts you all in...are you willing to get knocked out of the tournament just because you were getting good pot odds?

I am not. i need to make the money in better than 1 out of 3 to make an SNG profitable, so the pot odds dont translate. I play pot odds for most decisions, but when my entire stack is at stake I tend to err on the side of caution.

You are around 4.2:1 to make a flush, so yeah this is -EV.

If you are getting 4.2:1 on your money the call is 0EV.

+EV is a measurement of overaly, you must be getting better odds from the pot then your odds of making your hand.

SnGs are interesting animals because you are close to the money through-out so much of them.

I have even made the money without playing a hand before.

In cases close to the money, when chip stack are no longer equal, chip EV doesn't always equal $EV.

You do have to think about more then just the odds of the hand. You have to think about how much winning the hand will help you, and how much of a real chance you have of making the money if your fold.

If two players had 5k, one player 3k, and you had 2400 at the start of the hand, and the blinds are 100/200, going to 150/300 the next hand, you are UTG and get to the river against the player with 3k, pot stands at 4k.

He bets your last 400 when a scare card hits.

What is the value of survival here? You will have to put in 300 on the next hand. Even doubling will leave you in a terrible spot.

Winning the pot has some real dollar value - probably a few buy-ins

Folding the best hand has a real cost - probably a few buy-ins (at least most of your buyin)

The difference between calling and losing and folding a loser and "surviving" are pretty insignificant. Maybe a 1/5th of a buy-in.

You have to be pretty damn sure you are beaten to fold in this extreme, but not unusual example.

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