PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter

MP1 ($33.70)
MP2 ($35.15)
MP3 ($14.60)
CO ($8.25)
Button ($25.70)
SB ($9) Has bought short but seems like a decent player who can get off a hand even on small stacks
Bonchy ($53.30)
UTG ($23.25)
UTG+1 ($37.90) New to the table, won a hand with AK to get his stack. Seemed normal no real reads

Preflop: Bonchy is BB with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 5 folds, SB completes, Bonchy checks.

Flop: ($0.75) , , (3 players)
SB bets $1, Bonchy calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1.

Turn: ($3.75) (3 players)
SB bets $1, Bonchy raises to $5, UTG+1 folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: $9.75

Results in white below:
No showdown. Bonchy wins $9.75.

YOu know ht emath, If you thin kthis move has EV, then Make it... Good scare card to pick too....

I'll go against the tide here .. I'm not fond of this..


He's got $7 in his stack when you make the bluff @ $5. You're essentially saying to him go all-in. This is dangerously close to the value of TP.

You end up winning $2 from him.

He's almost certainly got Q x. The flop has got very threatening.

There are possibbilities to stack him (win $7 more) and you need:

Him You
10 Flush
any low flush Flush


To stack you (his size stack) he needs:

Ax Flush no need to lead out on this - but he might be bluffing and a lot of people at this level may try this on. If they start.. they will finish with this size of stack. This is a possible call (say 30% of time)
QQ preflop raise?
Qx hearts: danger of call - you're quite dead here
55 He's got you there whatever.
QT: completely dead
Qx: This put down was a marginal call on his part. Half the time small stack unknowns at this level will call against a flush backdrop.

If he's got any of these cards (and any balls) and goes all-in you are pot commited because of his stack and more than half dead at the turn.

Before you make the bet:

If you had the ten you might call and raise on the river = 0ne more bet from him. Even without the heart this hand is yours to a volume bet late. - He's got you on tens. Although if he calls he is quite well ahead.

The bluff worked and there's a small chance to stack him. At the end of the day the cards were so threatening that he would have folded to a fair sized bet on the river - if you wanted to take that risk. I am concerned about small stacks - he could have had reasons to call. In play they are usually happy to hit TP and go all-in : you might have been close to firing him off if he did put you on a flush draw.

This was a high volume marginal play.

Although he didn't call - you were in fact gambling $7 (i.e his stack) to win $5. If you start of by saying there was about a 50/50 chance that he would call with a very possible hand (i.e Qx, Axs ) hand that could beat you. 5%x2@ about 8$ = 80 cents in rake to win 25+12 = 37/2 = 19 cents. hmm......

The $8 is approx guess at how often he calls. 5% = house rake (is that lower for PS?) the 2 is the fluctuation effect. This is assuming that the cards are worth the blinds (they are usually worth a lot less than this). So that figure of 19 cents is an overestimate of your long terms winnings with these cards... If you then go onto say that there is only a 30% chance of calling the HA is 60 cents... yuk.........

You can hack around with these figures for a bit.. argue about a factor of two here and there (particulary the 37/2) but the House Advantage remains substantial in these types of plays.

This is before he actually has real strength in his hand. i.e a ten, or AQs. When you factor in the one in ten chance that he has the power hands... things don't look at all good

Nice poker... but it's a losing play with rake. If you hang on for the river to get a less marginal call more cheaply its still pretty close to a losing play because of his stack!! His stack on the turn really needs to be around 5X $4= $20 before playing him becomes profitable.

I DON'T play against short stacks in NL ring!!! Your implied odds are crap at the best of times. I try to avoid high volume marginal plays - the rake kills you...

It'd be funny if he re-raised all in and everyone said, "You HAVE to call with those odds. It's only $2." I thought the same thing as Bob with his stack. To put the statement of the "high volume marginal play" better. It's a lo-percentage jump shot IMHO. It's Greg Maddux, in his prime, throwing a fastball middle in to Mark McGwire or a Shaquille O'Neal 12 ft. baseline shot. Basically, I think this move is under 50/50 with an immeasure margin of error. This is heavily perceptual, from my point of view.

The fact of the matter is that these people would play AQ, KQ, TT, 55, and QT the same way. They're betting small on the turn to induce a bluff raise so they can re-raise all in and their opponent is "forced to call" because he's overinflated his odds and the short stack doubles up.

The fact that Bonch doesn't give a read, it shows that the play I mention in the last paragraph would be very effective because Bonch will fall for this underbet. That being said, I think you got lucky. I don't know if Villian is dropping QJ here, in all honesty. Most of these guys don't, especially after laying down a good amount for the same reasons that these pussies buy so small. They lose their patience after a while and wanna stick out their chest and are more likely to pay you off if you had AQ or a ten with a QJ or Q9.

I don't see many hands that Villian is folding, but he had one of them.