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  • 1 Post By WeakTight

Thread: Odds to call

  1. #1
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    Default Odds to call

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    Would you call this. I didn't...But I have been bickering over pot odds recently. Initial raiser is likely to call making it 3 to 1 right. A bookie would say 4 to 1 however because i would put in 500 and get 2000 back if i win. Would this also mean that pot odds are always at least 2 to 1 to call if you go by this principal.

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    of course i only speculate over this marginal call decision because I would have won a monster pot with the nut flush.

  3. #3
    Siddhartha Pinguaq's Avatar
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    3 to 1, and what are odds hitting flush? Even if you do, cant count on tripling up. What do you do if initial better 3bets?

    As a hand, its marginal. Type of hand sometimes I call, and sometimes I fold. It's important not to beat yourself over it.

    What puts me on the side of calling here and now is adding even the 1400+ to your stack would be nice at this time, where losing 500 doesn't change things a whole lot. We're playing to win right, not just to cash?
    "People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, they make them." - George Bernard Shaw

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    that's a terrible hand to call with in this situation. The initial raiser is likely to call or raise! you may just be throwing away $500 here

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    Hi there to deduce your pot odds you have to add the money currently in the pot and divide it by the amount required to call so you have currently got 600 + 300+ 100 +50 + 90 or 1140 in the pot and it will cost you 500 to make the call so you are getting 2.28:1 to call.

    however you will flop a flush 1:118 times a flushdraw 1:8 times two pair 1:48 times and obvs your chances of hitting a straight etc are greatly reduced by your cards having a massive gap.

    When you hit your 8 card with the best kicker on a low flop you may still not be good (in fact in a three bet pot you will often be in trouble) and you will almost always be drawing against the odds to hit a second eight on the turn or hit an ace to improve to two pair.

    If the opponent who has three bet has AK and continuation bets and you hit your eight but he has not connected unless he improves to another ace he will likely not bet again and will fold. If you do get bet at again with an opponent holding two kings you might call hoping that your 'disguised' 8 hands is still good here so often it will not be and so often you will be calling against the odds to hit another.

    The opponent would have to bet really low for you to get good drawing odds here. Plus because the pot was big to start with the proportion of your chips to call will also be bigger

    As as your hand is weak and you fear your opponents may be passive with overcards after a flop c bet you will likely not bet against an opponent on a low 8 board giving an opponent with AK who has c bet the chance at a free king and gaining more chips from you.

    The other circumstance and the most likely is you either get a flush draw or hit your ace.

    Flush draws are getting more and more obvious to players (less disguised easier to get away from) and hitting your ace could be disastrous as you are out of position and don't even know if it is good if you bet out now you will face a possible raise especially in a tournament with AK and be put in a really bad situation for a lot of chips.

    When you also hit your flush draw the likelihood of your opponents bets giving you the odds to call is very low and so long term this is unprofitable.

    A8 is a very very bad hand for a call in this situation and if you think about it you have to x5 your investment to have a hand that might get you a lot of chips very very few times and will lose you a lot of chips much more often. You will have to fold almost always -won't fold sometimes and get stacked because you were dominated and sometimes will hit a monster flush that doesn't get you all the chips anyway. There are a tonne more situations where you lose chips than times that gain chips.

    Also you are giving all your power over the hand and the potsize away by being out of position and you are also showing that as a whole in your stats you will make fishy calls with weak holdings/ large percentage of hands.

    This makes decent players aware that if you suddenly show aggression it is likely you have the nut flush or straight etc as you won't be doing it unless you hit this.

    If you have reads on the players that player A likes to steal an awful lot near the blinds and that player b has a high three bet then you could consider 4 betting just to maximise fold equity and because you're ace does block to an extent some of the better hands. You can of course then c bet any board IF YOU ARE CALLED and get folds on many boards.

    However I am 100% folding in this spot as you are 66 bb deep have nothing to fear at the mo and get all the free info of how these players react and play each other in the blinds

    Oh as an aside remember position you don't want to be first to act after you have called so playing in the blinds generally requires a very strong hand. Position is key as you gain the most info before acting. Also being the first person to raise and not to call gives you the advantage as you can rep a lot of very strong hands being a raiser and being a caller much less so.

    Having said that Pinquag is right about when you have a lot of bbs you can get away with playing multiway pots a bit looser as your tournament life is much less at risk but I think with a hand as weak as A8 you need to know you are in a hand with fishy opponents that you can outplay and you want to be charged less for the call.

    Its also nice with this sort of hand to be multiway as when you do hit your flush there are more potential hands to pay you off.

  6. #6
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    Snap fold.

    1. You're not closing the action pre.
    2. You're out of position.
    3. You're drawing to twopair+ as your bare ace is likely dominated in a 3bet pot.
    4. You likely have more reverse implied odds working against you when you flop an ace or good eight and can't get away vs. a better hand than you have implied odds for hitting your flush/two pairs with 1/10th your stack in the pot.

    You can cold 4bet bluff this if you think BTN is 3betting wide (typical of a good player). This hand is a good candidate since you have an ace blocker (meaning it's less likely someone has the premium ace hands) and you can snap fold it if you get shoved on.

    Readless, fold>raise>>call
    Peterpetrovski likes this.
    Fish on a heater

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    lol thanks weaktight summarised my answer without reading my book!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peterpetrovski View Post
    lol thanks weaktight summarised my answer without reading my book!
    I post before I read most replies.

    Hi Ping! Saving up for worthwhile 3k post?
    Fish on a heater

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    I'm absolutely loving some of the names I see posting on here again!
    Read my musings on poker and life at PokerNewsBoy.com, and My Poker Blog

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  10. #10
    Siddhartha Pinguaq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeakTight View Post
    I post before I read most replies.

    Hi Ping! Saving up for worthwhile 3k post?
    Hey there WT. I dont like snap anything anymore, but I guess my term "marginal" is out of place. Tourney play has changed a lot in 10 years, too many educated people all playing good poker. Only time I win (top 3) these MTTs anymore is to take early risks like this. I'm the first to admit I need more patience some times, but patience often leads me (ME) to a slow, low cash.
    "People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, they make them." - George Bernard Shaw

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