Computing Bluff Odds

**GTSamIAm** · 06-12-2005

How do you compute the odds on a bluff? On a bet to compute your odds if you get called, you take the bet divided by the pot plus your bet and however many callers. How do you compute how often opponents need to fold for a bluff to win money?

**Steve Ruddock** · 06-12-2005

the pot is $50, you bluff bet $10.

if your opponent calls 3 times and folds once than, 3 times you lose $10 ($30 total) and 1 time you win $50. if it works only 1 out 5 times you still show a profit.

**GTSamIAm** · 06-12-2005

Thanks.

**maxpot** · 06-13-2005

there are a few other things to take into consideration, altho the straight up math isn't wrong, per se'.

1) your bluff has potential EV even if you get called, as it may generate action on later hands.

2) your bluff has potential EV insomuch that it makes you seem like a player giving action, as opposed to a rock sitting patiently for the nuts.

3) your bluff has potential EV in that it may just make you happy to bluff regardless of the outcome, or in that it makes you happy to play a hand because you haven't for awhile.

4) if you're bluffing at a draw on the flop or turn, your odds now become a function of possibility of opponents folding + possibility of making hand + possibility of follow up on turn also considering the above two factors.

maxpot

**Marm** · 06-13-2005

I'm pretty sure he was refering to river bluffs, where your EV is just from the the frequency of them folding or not.

The rest of your list (1-3) has no affect on this hand, EV wise, though, true as it is.

**GTSamIAm** · 06-13-2005

I looked at the ways you or your opponent could win, lose, or fold limiting myself to a 2-bet river. I am referring to situations where you would never 3-bet the river. Are formulas for your EV useful when thinking about these situations? For example I made this formula for the required size of the pot to bet without intending to 3-bet.

a-f are percentages
a = opponent folds to river bet
b = opponent call river bet and I win
c = opponent raises river bet, I call and win
d = opponent calls river bet, I lose
e = oponent raises river bet, I call and lose
f = opponent raises river bet, I fold

n = the pot divided by the big bets, i.e. how many big bets are in the pot

n > (d + 2e + f - b - 2c) / (a + b + c)

I am confident the math is correct. Please check me though. But is a formula of this nature useful or are there too many variables? Are there useful simplified formulas that are useful for these sorts of decisions?

EDIT: This only applies to limit.

**Marm** · 06-14-2005

Ok, thats not a bluff on the river. You are decsribing a value bet. IN a true bluff scenario, any non-folds by your opponent, you lose. So you really only have these two sceanrios:

a- % of time opponent folds.
b- % of time opponent doesnt fold.

Your EV math is as follows:

a% of the time he folds, you win n bets. b% of the time, he calls/raises (asumming you fold to a raise, and you always lose to the call) you lose -1 bets (what your river bet was). so to figure EV: EV= n(a%) + -1(b%). So if the pot is 10 bb;s, and you think there is a 15% he fold to a bet, then EV = 10(15%) + -1(85%) = +.65. There fore in this scenario, since EV is (+), this is a good bet.

FOr your value bet scenario, it is not too complicated, aside form the fact that a+b+c+d+e+f must equal 100%, and balancing that many numbers in your head quickly can get tough.

a% of the time we win n bets.
b% of the time we win n+1 bets.
c% of the time we win n+2 bets (could be n+3, be we are looking from the intial river bet, not the final bet)
d% of the time we lose -1 bets
e% of the time we lose -2 bets
f% of the time we lose -1 bets

So EV = a%(n) + b%(n+1) + c%(n+2) + d%(-1) + e%(-2) + f%(-1)

IF EV > 0, then you have a +EV bet, or a good bet, if its <0, then its a bad idea. Every move you make in poker is based on this idea, of good and bad bets based on EV math. Actions like JTo PF have some wacky complicated math, so people usually dont try and theoretically quantify PF EV, they just use empirical results. You can usually use simple EV math, like this, for River and some turn betting, or all-in situations.

Some older threads we've had for you:

EV of hands....

And heres a good arguement on river betting EV math:

what would you do here?

**GTSamIAm** · 06-15-2005

That's what I have, I just solved for n. Alright, thanks.

**Marm** · 06-15-2005

You awlays want to solve for EV, becuase this is your profit/loss on a particular move/hand. ANd I find it easier to guesstimate in my head the percentages and figure out that betting here "will earn me maybe .10 bets better than my other option."

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