Practical Math Problem

**itsMrHankey2u** · 06-09-2005

So I decided to do a simple minimum buy-in, push with big hands and fold everything else strategy to clear a party bonus. The problem is this. Assuming that you will be only called all-in with AKo, AKs, A's, K's, Q's, in a full 10-handed game, what hands should you push with? Keep in mind, the minimum buy-in for party is 20 BB's and you win an average of 2 BB's . You can go ahead and come up with your own hands that you think other players will call with and an estimation of what you would win without a call with proper justification of course. I'll take my own stab at it once I have a minute(hopefully later tonight).

**Marm** · 06-09-2005

Hmmmm I feel a large amount of PokerStove work coming on.....

Ill be back on this one.....

**Beavis68** · 06-09-2005

your asssumptions are all wrong, you will get called by 77, you will get called by A6, you will, sometimes get called by 22 and KQ.

Read Getting Started in Holdem. It has a short stack strategy Ed Miller developed and tested at higher stakes live tables.

BTW, all in or nothing with 20BBs is not a good strategy either, I tried it. Too much variance, see some flops.

**itsMrHankey2u** · 06-09-2005

Originally Posted by Beavis68

your asssumptions are all wrong, you will get called by 77, you will get called by A6, you will, sometimes get called by 22 and KQ.

I know I will get called with these other hands. If you can come up with a better estimation of hands likely to be called with and chances of people calling with them, I'm all for it. I just came up with a start on the safer side of things.

Originally Posted by Beavis68

BTW, all in or nothing with 20BBs is not a good strategy either, I tried it. Too much variance, see some flops.

Obviously it isn't ideal strategy, but it is still profitable clearing a bonus. You might have more experience to show this isn't profitable but having done it twice now I showed profit both at the table and through the bonus pushing with ak, jacks, or better.

**Marm** · 06-09-2005

You don't need to play the hand to get the rake right? you jsut need to be dealt in right? Then just push with AA and KK, and push with no less than 35 bb's.

**Steve Ruddock** · 06-10-2005

If your opponents will call with AA KK QQ and AK only than the only hands you should push with are AA and KK

you have KK your opponent will have AA 6 times, QQ 6 times, KK 1 time, and AK 8 times. So 6 times you are a dog and will win about 1.5 of them, you are a favorite 6 times and will win 4.5 or so, and 8 times you are a slight favorite winning 5 of them. so over 20 times you would win about 11 times

if you had QQ you would be a dog 12 times winning about 3 of them and a slight favorite 16 times winning about 9 of them. so over 28 times you would win about 12.

however this assumes you always wager and win the exact same amount otherwise variance comes into play

But like Beavis said this is a rare scenario that you will only get called by these hands.

try the same math with an opponent calling with 77-AA, AK, AQ, and AJs. the results you get from that are the hands I would push with.

for instance TT would be a favorite over 18 combinations (winning about 14), a slight favorite over 36 combinations (winning about 20), and a dog to 24 combinations (winning about 5). so of the 78 combinations you win about 39. So in my mind TT is not a push situation under these parameters.

AK is a favorite over 15 combinations (winning about 10), a slight dog to 36 combinations (winning about 16), and a dog to 8 combinations (winning about 2) so you would win about 28 out of 59 again not worthy of a push.

Under these parameters I would push QQ, KK, and AA. JJ would probably show a longterm profit but is marginal in this situation.

**Beavis68** · 06-10-2005

Originally Posted by itsMrHankey2u

I know I will get called with these other hands. If you can come up with a better estimation of hands likely to be called with and chances of people calling with them, I'm all for it. I just came up with a start on the safer side of things.

Obviously it isn't ideal strategy, but it is still profitable clearing a bonus. You might have more experience to show this isn't profitable but having done it twice now I showed profit both at the table and through the bonus pushing with ak, jacks, or better.

I actually did somethink like this too help clear while I was playing O8b last in April, I think Girevik did too.

The problem I had is that two or three suckouts can ruin it. Also, if the table tightens up you barely make any money from the bonus. I had a guy call my AK with 55 and stack and someone call my QQ with A6 and stack me.

I started thinking that maybe all-in or nothing was not the best way to do it, why gamble 20BBs - especially if you are only playing this way during the bonus period?

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