When we look for opportunities to bluff, especially against unknowns, it is often wise to semibluff.

What is a semibluff? A semibluff is bluffing a hand with a chance to improve on a later street. This can include draws or weak made hands that can improve to a two-pair or trips. Basically, with the additional equity, our bluffs need to succeed less often, since we can improve to the best hand even when called.

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We're going to use an example where we push all-in so there won't be action on later streets.
Say action is on the turn, we have a flushdraw. Pot is $5, villain has $4 behind and we have him covered and we decide to shove all-in

When he calls we think we have about 18% equity and the pot will be $13 at showdown. We multiply the two to together; $2.34. This is the average amount we will win when called.
Now we take our original bet of $4, and reduce it by $2.34 for a total of $1.66. We do this because we're actually risking less

We can now just think of it as..... Bet [$1.66] / (Bet [$1.66] + Pot [$5]). When we calculate this, we see we need our opponent to fold 24.9% to breakeven.

When we compare this to a pure bluff in the same situation of [Bet [$4] / (Bet [$4] + Pot [$5])] we see we need them to fold 44.4%.

Basically, our semibluff needs to succeed about 1/4th of the time, where with a pure we need to succeed nearly 1/2 of the time. This is a huge difference!
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Below is the equation for this. Note that the bold underlined part is the main difference from a pure bluff equation of [Bet/(Bet+Pot)].

(Bet - Equity * Pot When Called) / (Bet + Initial Pot)

More often, we're going to be semibluffing in non-allin situations. This means we can also include implied odds of making money on later streets, meaning our bluffs have to succeed even less often.
On the other hand, there is the potential of being raised off our hand, meaning the we will the next street far less often, this means our bluffs might need to succeed closer to that of a pure bluff.


Word of warning! Don't use this as a license to run around shoving A-high nut flush draws all over the place, as this isn't always the best decision to make, or even a +EV one most times. This is just meant as a guide and help people to understand the math behind the action.

SEMI BLUFS = Doug lee...

p.s. i semi bluf pre flop xDD lulz

I mostly always throw out a semibluff. Pure bluffs are more for when I'm LP and every checks. Thats how it goes, position poker FTW!

Originally Posted by Gorgeous

Wouldn't reccomend this for low bankroll players.

How is this not applicable to low bankroll players? If you think and terms of bets (and you should, the $ value is irrelevant), then the math makes sense at any level.

If your statement is that low limit tables do not fold, then it is also inaccurate.

The stakes don't matter. This is based on your expected reactions from your opponent. If you think he will only fold 5% of the time, then the math does not support a semi bluff. But if you are putting him at 50%, then it probably does.

Originally Posted by Gorgeous

I just feel that when you throw out a semi bluff, the size of your stack makes an impression on the current hand too. If I have a marginal hand, and you throw out a semi bluff, I would be more inclined to call with garbage if you have $200 as oppose to calling somebody with $1,000. If you've got a lower bankroll, I would recommend just pushing hard when you've got a strong hand, and checking when you're on a chase.

Again, your thinking in dollar value, not bets. Ok, $200 vs $1000 at a $50/$100 table? Or at a .25/.50 table? At either of those tables, your stack size is practically identical.

Bets, not $.

Since you raised, that could also be a continuation bet as well as a semi bluff I suppose What was the result?