This is a shorthanded $1/2 limit hold'em table. Most everyone is a fish.

I am in SB with:



Folds to Button who calls. I raise. BB calls. Button calls.

Flop:



I bet. BB folds. Button calls.

Turn:



I bet. Button raises. I 3-bet. Button calls.

River:



I bet. Button calls.

Too aggressive on the turn?

I determined to bet rather than check-raise because if I check-raise, when he 3-bets, I don't have enough information to determine if he has a better king kicker. So I call down. So I would lose 4 big bets when behind, and win two or three big bets when ahead.

My turn thinking once I was raised was that at the least I would probably have to spend 2 big bets to showdown. I could call the raise on the turn and a possible river call, but he could take one off on the river if he were behind. If I raise the turn and he caps, I'm beat and can release. If not, I am probably ahead and can value bet the river. I lose either 2 or 3 big bets when behind, and win 3-4 big bets when ahead. Therefore betting out is more profitable.

Is this thinking correct?