Hey Everyone,
I just have a quick question regarding some math for poker. I was checking online and learned how to calculate odds using the 4 2 rule. What I wanted to ask however was that do you count pairs as outs?
For example lets say I have Q H 9 D off suit and the flop comes K S 10 D 7 H. So my outs can be the 4 Jacks to make a straight but would I count the remaining 3 Qs the 3 9s and what about if I need two cards to make a straight how would I calculate that? So would I use just the 4 jacks as my outs or the 10 cards overall with the J Q 9? if Jack is my only out I would only have a 16% chance of making my hand where as if lets say I count the Q and 9 it would be 40%.
Also, if anyone can give me some advice about some other strategy I would really appreciate it as even though poker is my hobby and not career, I would rather be up 1.2k then down the 1200 I am over my course as a "amateur pro".
Also if you can discuss what hands I should be playing at what position.
ie. I know for early position I should have a good hand (high pairs, AK AQ AJ suited maybe not) Middle position even middle pairs 4-7 pairs. Suited connecters and any half decent hand on button.
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07-16-2010 #1Fish Food
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Counting Outs and Calculating Odds
Last edited by Dhanju; 07-16-2010 at 07:57 PM. Reason: Add
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12-22-2010 #2Super Moderator
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I know this is old thread, but someone could use this info later lol
For counting outs, you would include the JavaScript Qs and 9s as out ONLY if you don't feel your opponent has a K or 10 (both would have you drawing dead to just a pair) In any case, you should assume the under cards are no good and only the 4 JavaScript would be of any help.
Example A 10 suited hearts. Flop: 9h 8h 7s this is a solid flop as you have two over cards (6 outs), an open ended straight draw (8 outs) AND a flush draw (9 outs). Pretty solid favor to win (I went on to lose this hand because opponent had 99 and turned K, river K)
Hope this helps.
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12-22-2010 #3Fish Food
- Join Date
- Nov 2010
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When counting your outs, you first have to understand what is an "out". In your example where you have K S 10 D 7 H and your hand is Q H 9 D. If your opponent has a K and a Q or a 9 comes, will you win? No. So they are not outs. They dont help you improve to the best hand to win at showdown.
"an out is any unseen card that, if drawn, will improve a player's hand to one that is likely to win" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Out_(poker)
Lets say you have AQh and the flop is Jh,7h, 2c your opponent has JT no hearts. Hes got top pair. Are you ahead or behind?
if an A comes you have a better hand, if a Q comes you have a better hand so you CAN count those as outs. plus the flush draw. so 9outs for the flush and 6 for the AQ left in the deck. So 15 outs total. 15*4 = 60% You are a favorite here. Is it possible that a T comes and he makes 2 pair? sure... what about another J? Yup. So hes got 6 outs to improve his hand or 6*4 = 24% to make trips or 2 pair. If that happens, your A or Q wont help, but your flush will still beat anything he can improve to. This is where reads and defining your opponents hand range come into play.
Hope this helps a little
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