***This poll will only be open until 5/31/05, so you have a week. I'll post the results then.***

Villian:
600+ hands
24% VPIP
very aggressive (2+)

He's in the green at +$1,400 in these 600 hands, but session to session varies a bit in that he's very swingy, but hasn't lost more than $300 in a session in the few session that I've played with him.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) converter

UTG ($188.64)
UTG+1 ($207.36)
UTG+2 ($123.2)
Hero ($252.8)
MP2 ($194)
MP3 ($211.6)
CO ($201.6)
Villian ($631.6)
SB ($197.2)
BB ($302.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , . SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises to $8, MP2 calls $8, 2 folds, Villian calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($27) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $25, MP2 folds, Villian calls $25.

Turn: ($77) (2 players)
Hero checks, Villian bets $50, Hero ______?

Fill in the blank. I checked to test. My read is that he'll bet $30, at the most with TT or 99. I feel like a bigger bet would be an attempt to end the hand.

That's my read. What's yours? And if you're not folding, what's your river plan?

Hmmm Call and bet $75 on the river?

Why am I calling and leading on the river? Do I have the best hand? Is he bluffing? If he's bluffing, is $75 a good bet? Betting $75 leaves me with a little less than $100 on the river to be committed to call if he re-raises me all in on the river. Am I calling that re-raise?

Not being difficult with you, Bonch. I'm just looking to pick your brain, not just "Call and bet $75 on the river."

What types of hands would he call with on that flop? TPTK? Maybe the check on the turn suggest to him that something like K10 is good, and you were betting to try and steal the pot on the flop because you raised.
Does he tend to call on drawing hands? (ie QJ there, he might think his draw+ two overs could be good)
If he thought you were weak, is he capable of betting you out of the pot?

I'm not sure I like a call on the turn, you need to decide if your hand is good. But a raise could be even more devastating if he plays back, then you have a tough decision.
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Cb500t

Originally Posted by Ck1221

What types of hands would he call with on that flop?

This is where it gets a bit tricky. Just about anything if he thinks I have AK, AQ, or JJ and will fold to a turn bet and I don't think he's raising the flop with trip 10's or 9's. I do feel good about not being up against QJ, 78, and even 55. I can't say the same for AQ, QQ, 88, or 77. AK is a slight possibility, but I have 2 Kings in the hole.

Would he call PF with hands like A10, suited connectors?
It looks like to me he has TPGK, and your check shows weakness. He thinks your flop bet was with a marginal hand (such as AK or 77) and he now believes his ten is good.
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VAPIR NO2

I'll retract that I don't believe he has 78, but he's not calling PF with AT, AJ, or KQ. Calling on a draw with folding equity is in Villian's repertoire and he is on the button.

Another possibility is T9, but I've showed what I think my hand is worth on the flop and he's doubled the price to see the river. On the flipside, if he has me on AK or AQ because of my check or even a JJ that I'm ready to fold, 89 isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Hmm
Tentative answer from me is raise him a good amount. If he puts in a big reraise, you're most likely beat.
But if you feel he will reraise (and you have decided to fold to a raise), you could probably fold now.

I feel calling is definately the wrong choice, because he'll most likely bet the river no matter what, and if the bet is huge, you probably can't call.
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MAGIC FLIGHT

Gah I have no clue what he has, but I'm confident he thinks you don't have a hand.
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How much do you say that I raise?

I have $219+ in my stack and I have to call the $50 first leaving me with a max. raise of $169 to go all in. No matter what I raise, calling the $50 puts $177 in the pot. My min. raise is to $100 and if I do that, I'm left with $119 to a pot of $227 going into the river if he calls.

We've discussed, mainly Steve and I, against making river calls too loosely because of math when you've inflated the pot. Raise to what and with what plan going into the river, if not raise all in?