Value Bet River Here?

**GTSamIAm** · 05-25-2005

This is a typical soft .50/1 pp table. Should I always value bet the river here? I'm asking because I know river value bets are much of a limit players profit.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with

,

.
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB)

,

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB)

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6.25 BB)

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

**bboy** · 05-25-2005

Easy value bet.

**KINGJACK** · 05-25-2005

I bet that river for sure...

KJ

**bonchkid** · 05-25-2005

Of course.

**Beavis68** · 05-25-2005

What do you know about the player?

I am not sure what he would bet the flop with and call on the river that you could still beat. JT, QT and KT and some pairs are about it.

Would he bluff raise the flop with a hand like AJ? I would think he would raise with AT on the turn.

Value betting isn't just about betting when you are ahead, it is about getting calls too. Even if you think there is a 90% chance you are ahead, the bet is still -EV if we won't call enough, and my check raise you sometimes.

I would probably check behind.

**Kliph** · 05-25-2005

This is how I look at it:

I don't think betting for value here is all that great of a deal. I think you will only be called by better hands and you open yourself up for a checkraise.

AND, and you are up against the BB.

He could easily have something like

and was betting the open ended draw on the flop and then a flush draw on the turn.

You've bet every other street so he probably expects you to bet again.

...just what I was thinking.

**bonchkid** · 05-25-2005

I think any PP>6 will call here vs the majority of players.

**the alex** · 05-25-2005

Originally Posted by bonchkid

I think any PP>6 will call here vs the majority of players.

Though this is very player dependent, I agree with this to an extent. We can rule out 77-99, I think. The flop play by Villian reeks of JT. If he's a bit tighter of a player, Jacks, but I think this "common man" with Jacks is 3 betting PF and on this flop at a 6 max. table. You're against 9's in the hole, at worst and Jacks, at best, more times than not.

But is this player that won't 3 bet Jacks heads up at a 6max. table calling the Ace on the turn? This closes the range a bit and I think that you're up against JT.

I'd like to see a river bet.

**Beavis68** · 05-25-2005

If he has JT or JJ, the about the only hands he could put you on are KQ or KJ that he can call - maybe 99.

If it is a profitable bet, I would say it is marginally profitable. Expecially if you will call a check-raise or your oppoennt with bluff check-raise you.

**the alex** · 05-25-2005

Well, I've been given no evidence to give this opponent the credit of playing past his cards. I couldn't tell you how many times in NL play at all blind/buy in levels I've seen people with QQ call all in on a JTX flop after calling a healthy raise PF.

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