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Thread: Win Rate
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05-12-2009 #11
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05-12-2009 #12
cake sites are softer too. Moved there from stars to make the learning curve less painful to the BR.
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05-12-2009 #13
I got to thinking about the win rate deal of making 5 big bets per hundred hands. I figure in 1-2 NL Holdem at a casino, if you played 8hrs a day, seeing about 300 hands. That would give you 15 BB per 300 hands per day. 2100 hands a week, 8400 a month give or take a few, extreme example here. That would be a profit of $30 a day, $210 a week, and $840 a month. It seems that one couldn't make it on that game a lone, kinda like a hobby until ya moved up. I guess all I'm trying to say is that I thought maybe one could earn more money than that. I sometimes see players make 10 times what they bought in for. You think that it doesn't happen often though. Time will even it all out right? What is variance, does it relate here?
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05-12-2009 #14
Also, what do you think as a guess to what someone like Daniel Negreanu or Tom Dwan's win rate would be if they played live 1-2 NL or 2-5NL. Assuming you didn't know them, just there skills is more what I'm referring to.
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05-15-2009 #15
I think the only way to asses a solid win rate is over hundreds of thousands of hands rather than a days play.
Funny, I've just been looking at a guys graph at NL50/NL100 who's just made me a training video and he's been winning for 3ptbb/100 over 140,000 hands.
Now what got me about this is that we have a similar win rate yet he shows how to play in a super LAG style 40/35 type stats (for the video atleast) and I play 19/17 style.
So the long winded answer is don't put too much focus on any one session. Practice good table selection, play in a mannor that not only works for you but best exploits your opponents tendencies and 2-5bb/100 is definatly doable without too much trouble at the lower stakes.
A win rate is so subtle that it only takes one or two mistakes per hundred hands played to make you breakeven or a losing player. That's why forums like this help so much.
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