Hand attributes
There's more to a poker hand than just being ahead or behind, and how many outs you have. I think hand analysis would be facilitated if we had a wider range of terms and concepts, preferably quantifiable, to discuss hands.
Here's a proposal for some terms, and methods of calculating them. The exact implications of these quantities are beyond the scope of this post, but I consider them all to be useful to think about. Feedback welcome.
Rank: What the hand actually "is," i.e. "a pair of Nines," or "a straight to the Queen." Rarely a major factor in decision-making, except as far as it factors into the other quantities.
Strength: The percentage of the opponent's range that we beat at the current time.
Coarse Strength: Considering only the "type" of hand (high card, one pair, two pair, straight, etc.), the percentage of the opponent's range that is of a lesser type. I.e. if we have a flush on an unpaired board, and we think the opponent also has a flush (higher or lower) 10% of the time, our Coarse Strength is 90%.
Fine Strength: Considering only the portion of the opponent's range that is of the same "type" as ours, the percentage of that sub-range that we beat. E.g. a nut flush always has a Fine Strength of 100%. If we have AJ on a board of JT2, and think that, assuming the opponent only has one pair, it is an overpair 20% of the time, our Fine Strength is 80%.
Robustness: Considering only the portion of the opponent's range that we currently beat, the chance that we'll still be ahead at showdown, weighted by the relative likelihood of those hands. E.g. we have TPTK, and consider that if we are ahead, he has TPGK 30% of the time, a flush draw (no overcards) 60% of the time, and MP + flush draw 10% of the time. We're about 90% against TPGK, 65% against the FD, and 50% against MP + FD... so (90x3 + 65x6 + 50x1) / 10 = 71% Robustness.
Potential: Considering only the portion of the opponent's range that we are currently behind, the chance that we will be ahead at showdown, weighted by the relative likelihood of those hands. E.g. we have AT on a board of T82, and believe that if we are behind, it's to an overpair 80% of the time, T8 10% of the time and a set 10% of the time. We are 20% likely to beat an overpair, 10% likely to beat two pair, and as good as dead against a set. Thus, our Potential is 17%.
Concealment: Considering only hand "type," percentage of the range we believe our opponent is putting us on which is less than our real holdings. Thus, if we have two pair and believe the opponent can put us on High Card 60% of the time, One Pair 20% of the time, Two Pair 10% of the time, Set 5% of the time and Straight 5% of the time, our Concealment is 80%. Note that higher is not always better - an exceptionally low Concealment means that our opponent is putting us on a range that is considerably higher than our actual strength, which is an ideal situation to bluff.
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