Perhaps this sounds silly, but I've always got a dilemma when I'm first to bet on the river in NLHE with a lock hand and it goes something like this...Do I push all-in and risk scaring the person off and not winning a dime more than what's already in the pot, or do I pick a random figure that I think he will call...say a half-pot bet...and risk "losing" the profit I would've made had I gone all-in and been called?

Obviously if the opponent in question has been shown to be either exceptionally loose or exceptionally tight, the appropriate decision is easy to make. But when the person is just your run-of-the-mill, nothing-exceptional-stands-out average/above average player I can't escape the thought that I'm losing money by "not betting enough" and ensuring that I get that final call rather than just letting it fly and hitting the all-in button.

C'mon some of you no-limit types on here...what are you looking at/for in the opponent to make this decision and how often are you hitting all-in rather than tossing in a smaller bet and ensuring the call? (assume just a single opponent left on the end here)

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this really depends on the opponent and your read of his hand.

if I think the guy was on a draw I like to bet a small amount maybe 1/4 the pot to give him an opportunity to sense weakness and raise, basically induce a bluff. I don't like checking to induce a bluff.

If the guy has a marginal made hand I'll usually make a 1/2 pot sized bet or what i think this person will call to induce a call

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I read somewhere and it seems to work... that if you call, call, then all-in you've got around a 50/50 chance that he will call if he has TPTK.It looks like a bluff on your part. Even if this figure is wrong by 20% its worth the all-in. Generally if ppl bet into you and your passive - the final all-in by you appears an insult.......

I think this works well if there appears to be a failed flush draw....

If your opponent has nothing he won't call. I've taken down hugh pots with 1bb bets (even though I had the nuts). I'm now using the "if I have the nuts I'm all-in on the river". tactic.

All-ins only work because ppl call them

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Thanks for the fast responses guys...this has always been one of those areas that I've examined as a possible "leak" in my game because really, giving money away and not asking for enough of other people's money when you have the opportunity to get it all winds up in the same consequence to the bottom line. It just got re-kindled last night by the following hand...

0.25/0.50 NLHE @ Paradise

UTG +1 I get dealt and raise from 0.50 to $2. Callers in MP and LP plus the small blind. $8.50 in the pot.

Flop

SB checks, I bet $9, MP calls, LP and SB fold. $26.50 in pot

Turn

Flush doesn't really bother me since he called my pot-sized bet earlier and hasn't struck me as a chaser. Plus I've got re-draws with my ace even if he has it. I bet $13, he calls. $52.50 in the pot.

River

So here I am with my dilemma -- nut flush, how hard do I push? I've got about $45 in front of me still and he's got $40 or so left. Its a scary board and I'm fairly certain one of his cards is not a heart. I throw in $10 thinking he almost assuredly has to call that with any sort of hand given the pot size and hoping me backing off a few bucks might induce a bluff/steal attempt (which I'll be more than happy to call.)

He calls, flips over and says "good thing you didn't go all-in, I'd have called."

Nice pot, but $30 lost by not asking for it.

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yeah this is totally a problem i've been thinking about lately too...i play a lot more sngs though than ring games. do you think people would be less likely to call an all in there? i usually make small bets that i know will get called down cuz i figure if i push they won't call, especially when it puts them all in too. what would be a good sng strategy for this situation?

At the low limits I tend to like the all-in because pushing a lot with the best hand people will call with a pair under the board even. As you get higher, you will start losing value with this play.

In an SNG I push every time because in addition to the added chips you might get you also potentially get the added benefit of eliminating/crippling an opponent if called -- 1/9th or 1/8th of the opposition standing between you and the top money. That's a HUGE bonus that doesn't exist in a cash game where that opponent can always dip into their wallet and reload.

For me, the dilemma is strictly a cash game one.

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Obviously the correct play is to bet as much as will be called. What does he have? It's all about EV. What amount will he call most often? An allin will only be called by a very small amount of hands. Betting allin is just gambling that he is a fish/has a good 2nd best hand. Do you have the deck crippled?

Vs bad players you do a milking bet, vs very good players never do a milking bet(they know). Vs good players make a big bet.

I'm with Steve on this one. Put out a relatively small bet (1/3-1/5) to induce a bluff if you think he missed his draw. If you think he has something better than TPTK, and you beat him, I think you should push it in on the river. Most likely this person will call.

Goose, the problem Shade is having is with average players that he has no reads on. If you can really define the player, the decisions are not very hard.

Also, you might want to mix it up. Try experimenting with a 1/2 pot size bet. See if this works to induce bluffs. However, a 1/2 bet will probably get you a call. You can also play like Deme said, by making it look like you were drawing, and then push on the river looking like a complete bluff.

All-in is an emotional bet. If you have the nuts hit the all-in button fast - you're saying to your opponent that I AM bigger than you and I can scare you off this pot. Anybody with a microgram of testosterone is really insulted by all-ins. How have you felt when you have TPTK and someone has all-in-ed you - YOU just KNOW he's bluffing... That urge to hit the call button overwhelms ppl - and particulary fish... A fish with TPTK against a trip and an all-in on the river is a bowl of rice and a few clams short of chowder...

Bob

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