hello
I was reading about ICM on chillin411 ( The Independent Chip Model – Examining a Bubble Hand | Chillin411.com ) and they consider this situation:

S&G with 10 people, 50%, 30%, 20% prizes, 4 people left (BUBBLE), blinds 200/400
You have 2200 chips, and to your left, 2400, 3600, and 1800, respectively.

So here they suggest pushing all-in with 89s in the smallblind is good considering that the big blind will call 15% of the time.
The conclusion is:
"So, if we fold, we have an ICM value of 0.2354 if we fold, and an ICM value of 0.2426 if we push."


I also agree with that play, and usually did it before knowing ICM in many similar situations, but for other reasons.
Instead of considering the average of the ICM (0.2354 if fold and 0.2426 if push), I prefer considering the separated values (he folds, he calls and I lose, he calls and I win), because:
- he folds: ok, I got a new blind (and some antes), and I'm at least breaking even for this round
- he call and I lose: I'm out with $0
- he calls and I win: I doubled-up and he's "pratically" left

So even if he calls and I get a winning probability of 36%, I think it's still pretty decent, because, if I win I'll not only already be ITM, but also be the chip leader (what gives me more room to steal blinds and control the table)

Don't you think this kind of "reward" should also be considered on the ITM (I didn't read enough about ITM, so I'm not sure it really isn't)?

Pushing this hand is correct as 98s is a slight favourite(a little >50%) over a random hand so 85% of the time ur winning the substantial blinds uncontested and 15% of the time when the bb calls u, ur gonna be a slight favourite to double up.

Strictly speaking, based on ICM and considering the stacks (and without me bothering to look in detail at any numbers to back my spouting up), the bb should not really call your push with anything less than AA so ur almost getting a walk even tho ur in the sb.

Playing nitty as hell is common to see while down to the bubble but im this is the time to go and win a SNG by being aggressive and putting others to big decisions, especially if a small stack has folded and ur stack is bigger than those left to act.

shoving with 98s is the right play, as well as the BB calling with about 15%

Call hands: 66+,A8o+,A6s+,KJo+,KTs+ (15%)

Of course it depends on the BB. If he's crazy loose here and calls with any two, it's a bad shove. But almost nobody plays this way

wtffffff and wat are my two favourite replies ever to threads

to repeat myself: strictly speaking and based on ICM and stack sizes, it is a mistake for the bb to call a push here with less than AA(or possibly KK).

as im short on time right now, i will attempt to explain my reasoning later and might even venture into some random number crunching to confuse u into thinking im correct

meh at number crunching not conclusively proving my point

from the bb's point of view (putting us on any pair, any broadway and A7o+) it appears to be pretty much a breakeven call with JJ/AKs and a profitable call with QQ+.......obv numbers will vary depending on what range we can reasonably say that he puts us on.

if there were slightly differing stack sizes, it turns into a whole new ball game so once more i will go out on a limb and say that my initial statement was not too far off being correct