Member Login

Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. 06-15-2008 #1
    Hzahaha
    Hzahaha is offline
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    1

    Default 5 Card Triple Draw Stats

    Hypothetical situation: You are playing 5 card draw poker, with 3 draws. On the initial deal, you are dealt 3 of a kind fours. You are looking to make a full house or four of a kind. Are your odds better to improve your hand to keep 444 and card X and draw 3 times, hoping to pair card X or catch a fourth four, or to draw two cards each time, hoping to catch a fourth four or be dealt a pair or cards.

    1.1.What is the probability that in keeping 444 and card X, with three draws, that the final hand would be 444XX?
    2.2.What is the probability that in keeping 444 and card X, with three draws, that the final hand would be 4444X?
    3.3.What is the probability that in keeping 444, with three draws, that the final hand would be 444 and any pair?
    4.4.What is the probability that in keeping 444, with three draws, that the final hand would be 4444 and any given card?
    5.5.Overall, which method will yield a better chance to improve, making either four 4s or a full house, 444XX?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 06-18-2008 #2
    PJ of TheGame
    PJ of TheGame is offline
    Check Raiser
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    724

    Default

    1.2 4.3%
    1.1 18.4%
    4.4 12.8%
    3 18% (this is the one i'm not sure of... i figured it as each second draw has a 3/48 chance of matching the previous card. The only cards I could rule out were 4's. This is because the first card you draw could be one of the cards you just discarded... you can't rule them out of the deck)

    So drawing two to get to four of a kind has a better chance because your odds of boating stay about the same, but your odds of finding your quad card are more then four times better then if you only look at 3 cards.
    -You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

Forum Rules