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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > Right play?

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Old 04-14-2005, 01:13 PM
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Default Right play?

Online NLHE game, $50 table.

I got dealt pocket 9's in early position and was first in with a raise from 0.50 to $2 (don't remember exact stack sizes here, but I think I was around $45). There was one call from a similar-sized stack before it gets around to the button. My notes on the button:

"Overbets his hand - preflop raises to 4.50 with AQo;
overbets the pot with 4-to-flush/str8, will call a big bets to chase;
Play as a mark for profit."

He comes over the top for his final $15.

My thinking at this point -- the button just got drilled for $25 or so a couple hands back for betting big on a flush draw that never got home. This is probably the first hand he's had since then and he's looking to recoup his loses by stealing some extra money.

I have no notes on the caller, but to me this is one of those isolation play situations. So I re-raised all-in to get heads-up against the loose cannon at the table. Sound play or too aggressive and asking for trouble?

Intentionally omitting results right now to get people's opinion on the soundness of this play over the long haul.
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Old 04-14-2005, 01:20 PM
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Three types of hand the button has

AK-AT,
PP greater than 99,
PP less than 99

Anything else and he's deserving to be relieved of his cash.

Only the third category has you as a clear favourite. The second has you dominated and the first is a coin flip. I'd say the third category was the least likely.

Still probably a good call for $13 for the $15 plus the $4 already there.

However the presence of the caller means I'd fold.

No caller and I'd call.
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Old 04-14-2005, 01:35 PM
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Based on your description, I would put him on a pretty win range of hands that you would probably be in the 40/60 to 50/50 range. So there is 8.75 in the pot, he pushing in 15 for total or fifteen more? Either way, you are getting at worst 1.58:1 on your money, if he has high cards it is pretty likely that the caller has at least one of your outs. Call.

I ran the odds for 99 vs 55+, AT+, and KQ, and you 48% to 51%.

Irexes point about the caller is good, but what would he call with and then call an all-in with? TT-QQ and AJ, and AQ would be my guesses, and you are about 42/58 on those, so I think it is worth the risk with the dead money you will get in the pot.

Remember, I don't play a lot of NL cash games. This is just theory.
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Old 04-14-2005, 02:05 PM
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I like the re-raise. I think you have the button beat. I am guessing he had AQ, therefore you have to wonder what the caller has. If you think he has TT, will he call for the rest of his stack? By raising all-in, will you be able to get him to fold? If you knew the player and he was passive, easy raise I think. However, even without knowing how he plays, I think your move is good. I think there is a good chance the caller will fold, and you will take it if your 99 holds up.
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Old 04-14-2005, 02:33 PM
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I agree that the move all-in is a reasonable one.

My thoughts (though not backed by the requisite numbers) are...

You are probably 55/45ish favourite over the button (in the long run) and the pot odds make this a call.

However the reraise all-in means you are risking $30(ish) of your $45 in the pot which even if you win the hand will not be matched by the same sum from the button.

The additional $30 will only be called by the initial caller if he has a strong hand (AK, TT-AA) in which case you will be a severe dog in the long run.

It's the reraise that troubles me as a long-term play, while a call is likely to induce a call from the caller as he will have great odds, leaving you in real trouble with pretty much any flop.

Of course this isn't the infamous "long run" it's one hand, but you are risking $43 to win $20ish half the time and I'm not sure that stands up.

Just my cautious musings the push may well be the way to go as you not only know the opponents better than me, but also had a sense of what your table image was to them.
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Old 04-14-2005, 03:23 PM
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Well, the push made sense from an isolation standpoint when I made it, but later in the night as I reflected back I had some concerns -- granted, I haven't played with many people at the $50 level capable of playing second hand low, but if this is one of the rare few, well, I'm screwed. AK is about the only hand that calls my all-in re-raise that doesn't completely dominate me.

In retrospect, a flat call is probably sufficient to drive the caller out in most cases where I"m not hopelessly dominated. At the time, I was worried that the reckless nature of the button (which should have been apparent to even those players without the benefit of my notes at this time) would possibly draw him into the action if I didn't re-raise, and I *really* wanted to try to make this a heads up hand between myself and the button.

Anyway, the results...I push, caller folds...button turns up 88 (I'm surprised he was this strong, but obviously I'm thrilled to see it). Board lands Q K 3 Q 5...the initial caller congratulates me and claims he folded AQ. (poker players being the always-honest lot they are, who knows if he's being truthful here but its certainly in the realm of potential given how the hand was played)
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Old 04-14-2005, 04:25 PM
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Hehe, AQ is what I guessed the caller had.
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Old 04-14-2005, 09:29 PM
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Hey, my hand range was pretty close too.
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Old 04-14-2005, 09:36 PM
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Well if he was being honest and called with AQ you made a great re-raise. Good play man.
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Old 04-15-2005, 12:02 PM
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Was definately a raise or fold situation...

I think I would have raise too considering the 1st caller should have raise with a bigger pocket than 9 and probably will fold AK cuz he does'nt want to get involved in a 3 way all in with a drawing hand.

My guess... I put both of the guys on A and another paint.

KJ

Edit: Oups... Just saw you post the result...

Last edited by KINGJACK; 04-15-2005 at 12:05 PM.
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