Hey guys, so I've been tinkering with this idea as of late. Tell me what you guys think.

The basic premise of the idea is to 5bet shove these 3 sc's: 56s, 67s, 78s over someone whom we have pegged as a lite 4-bettor.

Now heres some mathematical analysis:

Why these 3 hands u should ask? Well, its very plain and simple. These 3 hands fair the best vs. AA/KK mathematically when played for stacks all in pf.

Hand 0: 77.589% 77.40% 00.19% 190854636 458316.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 22.411% 22.22% 00.19% 54800508 458316.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Why 3 sc's? Why not 2, or 1?

The answer to this is to balance our range of ultra lite 5bet shoving vs 5bet shoving with nut hands. There are 6 combos of AA, and 6 for KK, for a total of 12 combos of essentially the nuts in a LP vs Blind, LP vs LP, or blind vs blind battle which you would be 5 bet shoving also. Since each sc has 4 combos, raising 3 of them (for a total of 12 combos) would have you 5bet bluff shoving with a very balanced range since half the time you would have a sc and the other half the time a big PP. This is of course assuming you 3bet these sc's in the first place, which for most players is the norm nowadays.


A mathematical scenario:

Now assuming our opponents calling range of our 5bet bluff shove is QQ+, AKo, AKs. Here is how our 5 bet shove bluff range fairs against it:

Hand 0: 68.999% 68.80% 00.20% 480617304 1425032.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.001% 30.80% 00.20% 215152664 1425032.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Now lets say we have our opponent pegged as a light 4 bettor, and is 4 betting all his AX, as well as JJ+ type hands with the intention of folding to a shove with anything JJ or under or AQ and under. Assuming he is a taggish-aggro type player who raises A8o+, from the co/button this would mean he would be 4betting us with a range of 10.9% of hands. Assuming he calls our shove with only QQ+, AKo/AKs (a range of 2.6%) and folds everything else, this would mean he would be folding roughly about 3 out of every 4 times he 4bets us.

Now lets measure this in a table situation:

Assuming a 5/10 nl game with standard 100 bb stacks. We are in the BB with 67s, our opponent raises the button to 35$, we repop to 125$ and he 4bets us to $325. Assuming we have him pegged as a lite 4bettor and is 4betting the range we specified above. He would be folding to our shove 3/4 of the time which results in us getting +455$ each time he folds. Now the 1 time he calls us, we will still have 31% equity vs his calling range, so will only lose $690 over the long run when we get our 100bb stacks in (assuming he doesnt adjust his calling range to us - once he sees us doing this he may adjust and start calling our shoves with AQ/JJ, etc - but this will also benefit us in the fact that our big pocket pairs will now get paid off more often). So this results in a total equity of roughly +$168.75 (factor in the fact that half the time we will be in the sb instead and it will come out to approx. 17bbs) every time we do this.



Thoughts?

I've got confused about the equity calculation at the end. I assume you factored in when he calls vs our AA/KK range and that's how you got the +$168.75?

I like this idea very much against someone we know 4bets light alot, I'm just not sure how many people you'll encounter like that until 5/10 etc.

I assume that if he starts adjusting the calling range, we can pretty much wipe out the bluffs and start shoving 99+ for value? Would you still put in that many bluffs once he's seen you're capable of doing it or would it be a case of when he's seen you showdown 56s once, that's it for the bluffing until he re-adjusts to you valuetowning him? If that makes sense...

Originally Posted by davidab157

I've got confused about the equity calculation at the end. I assume you factored in when he calls vs our AA/KK range and that's how you got the +$168.75?

I like this idea very much against someone we know 4bets light alot, I'm just not sure how many people you'll encounter like that until 5/10 etc.

I assume that if he starts adjusting the calling range, we can pretty much wipe out the bluffs and start shoving 99+ for value? Would you still put in that many bluffs once he's seen you're capable of doing it or would it be a case of when he's seen you showdown 56s once, that's it for the bluffing until he re-adjusts to you valuetowning him? If that makes sense...

The 168.75 was gotten from doing 3x455=$1365 (the total amount of money we win every 4 times we push the sc and he folds) minus $690 (total amount of money we lose the 1 time we get called) divided by 4.

anyways to answer your next set of questions. When he starts adjusting his calling range, we don't really have to do anything because our QQ+, AK hands that were also shoving will gain in value (if we want we could stop shoving with the sc's once hes seen us do it a couple times and has started to adjust or we could stop shoving 56s and 78s but still keep on shoving 67s, etc).

Originally Posted by Eclipse86

The 168.75 was gotten from doing 3x455=$1365 (the total amount of money we win every 4 times we push the sc and he folds) minus $690 (total amount of money we lose the 1 time we get called) divided by 4.

aha, got you now.

My head hurts from the numbers but I like it.

Now if only people at NL2 - NL10 were TAG lite 4-bettors.

Actually... that'd suck.

eclipse, what does your HUD setup look like?
what program you use?
what stats do you have, and which do you care about the most/

Read this post b4. To tiered to reread again.
Will read tooorow b/c I remmebr how good it was.

Originally Posted by squeezyplayer

your estimations of the typical 5/10 player's 4bet/fold and 4bet/call ranges are absurdly misguided

aha