variance.

This is one of the things I've struggled with most while learning poker. All to many people see long term graphs from winning players that look like a straight line and expect poker to pay like you're bagging groceries.

When I started playing I played a weak/tight low variance style and grinded in a straight line for a long time. It worked but it wasn't optimal. As I progressed and became more tight aggressive I became more profitable, but as a result had a huge increase in variance.

I've improved a shitload recently and deal with variance way better than I previously did, and I thought I'd share a few points.

-55% winning sessions. Half the time you sit down, expect to lose money. The longer your sessions, the less variance, and the more likely you're session will be a winning one since you'll be statistically closer to your expected return assuming you're a winning player.

-Standard deviations (sort of wordy, long and math nerdy)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...on_diagram.svg

Pick any spot under the line on this graph, and you're given a percentage chance that's where your session will fall. Look at the standard deviation scale on the bottom. KRE8R and I both have standard deviations of 40 big bets (80bb) per 100 hands.

So in terms of NL100 for simplicities sake, 1 standard deviation along the bottom scale represents $80. 66% of the time you sit down to play 100 hands, your session will fall within -$80 or +$80. 95% of the time, between -$160 and +$160. The other approximate 5% of the time, anywhere between -$240 and +$240.

Obviously most people play way more than 100 hands in a session, generally 500 is a fair estimate, 4-tabling for a bit longer than an hour, so this reduces your variance and brings you closer to your expected winrate.

-Breakeven stretches. I don't have any stats or formulas at the moment, but I'm going to dig some up in the next few days for my own interest and I'll post when I do.

I have just come out of a 7k hand breakeven stretch and it didn't tilt me in the slightest, and have previously suffered close to 10k breakeven at stars after being a 20ptbb/100 winner at nl5 over a ridiculous amount of hands.

That's all for now, food for thought, I'll post some more later.

Looking at these graphs kinda opened up my mind about variance. I used to think that several losing sessions in a week meant I was either playing bad or running bad. Now I am understanding the reality of what being a true, long term winning player is all about. This month is a perfect example of true variance for me. I was down 9 buyins at the level I was playing. This sort of thing kills me of course but the thing that bothered me the most was that it was all within 2500 hands. Now I am at a little over 3500 hands for the month and have made back 6 of the 9 buyins. Its so easy to become tilted when we look at the game in single sessions, even over a long session with many hands. What is crazy is that I look over my last few months and for the most part dont even realize how profitable I have actually been.

Great post piv, for some reason I can't look at that graph at work, I'll try my home PC later

Good stuff.

it is painfully obvious to me than pokerstars is a rigged site.

they are smart. they know that if they are going to rig a site, they cant do it in a way that people using a simple program like poker tracker can figure it out.

stars keeps bad players in the game. right now there are 92,000 players playing right now. i guarantee there are not 92,000 winning poker players in the world. let alone all playing on one site, all day every day.

if they don't keep bad players in the game, they sure as hell rig hands to create action in some way shape or form.


i could post everything i know and have seen in the past 4 years playing but there is no point. sooner or later one of 2 things is going to happen

1. the holecard viewing software will make its way to pokerstars (if it hasn't already, which it probably has)
2. someone who knows where to look will figure out the site is rigged to shit.

honestly online poker is a crock, and is doomed, imo

edit: that was a serious post, i am not kidding
fcking arrab crooks

I think TA just got his aces cracked.

Great post, piv.

I really hope this thread doesn't turn into another online poker is/isn't rigged thread.

why would i get mad about aces cracked on stars? its basically a coinflip preflop

I can NOT count how many times I have said with 100% sincerity while deep/semi deep with in a mtt "Please lee, do not give me aces or kings. please. Do not give me any premium hands."

sure I'm still a little steamed losing $60,000 real dollars to king 4 offsuit but I have honestly felt this way for years. I know other winning players (over huge samples) who feel the same way as well.

Nah, it's like 52/48 except against AKo.