OK watching the USPC tonight... this hand bugged me. I think it was the blinds, but then again I may be wrong. If not, then o well, the question still applies

final table, about 7 players or so left. Sb has a 3-4x chip lead (about 1.6mil in TC) over 2nd CL. Dont remember the blinds,
SB has BB has

Folded around to SB (ok I didnt see the PF action but it was HU to the flop) SB makes it about 4-5 bb raise. BB calls.

FLop is

Check Check

Turn is

Sb now bets about a full pot, BB thinks and calls.

River is

Sb now bets 500k. 1/3 of his stack. About 1-1.5 pot size. BB flat calls.

Does the BB play trouble anybody else?

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Why doesn't it make sense? SB didn't bet like an ace and otherwise BB has best hand

seems to me like small blind was betting to get out of a hand he shouldnt really be in. ya know? i think those were well calculated calls. i think the calling should have placed fear in the small blind and the guys with the queens probably spotted weakness.

my take without having seen it at least.

i can agree with that, without seeing it.... but sb probably thought he had the best hand with the K-Q.....

meant to quote nomanner, but i agree with both guys

If you guys get to see it, watch it, it was the finla table broadcast of the USPC, D'agostino was in the SB. When you watch it, It really befuddled me how the BB could call that river bet with out some type of other tell/info on the guy. Maybe he did. But it looked like to me that D'ag was trying ot fake a slowplay on the flop, he paused long enough.

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I don't like BB trying to get cute on the flop here. SB is likely to call evne with overcards after he raised preflop.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

If the SB had Aces, would he check the flop then bet so much on the turn.

A common way of handling aggressive players is raising less and calling more.

The BB had bet and got check raised all-in on the flop, he would probably have to fold. On the turn a raise is clearly -ev. If the SB doesn't have an ace is drawing most likely to 2-3 outs, 11 at the most. Calling him down is the most likely the lowest risk way to play it.

If you don't thnk it is likely he has an Ace why raise? Your absolute worst case on the turn would be a suited King. Which would give him 11 outs, and you still have around 75% equity. You only gain 25% of the pot by making him fold the worst hand, but you gain 75% of the new money coming in.

*all #'s should be in thousands*
If he doesn't have an ace you NEED to raise.

Pot on the flop/turn is about 100

SB bets 100 you call.
Pot going to river:300
SB misses 11 outs on river, check check or check bet fold.
You win 300 chips 75% of the time.
If 11 outs hit on river and you pay off a huge(500) bet you lose 500 25% of the time.
EV= T100/hand

Pot on the flop/turn is about 100

SB bets 100 you raise to 500 straight , he is getting 7:4 odds which is not enough to call with 11 outs and 1 card to come. Assuming I'll pay off an extra 300 on the river he'd be getting 10:4 implied odds which still isn't enough to call.
If he folds, EV= T200/hand
If he decides to take one off and call and I, being the fish I am, will pay off another 300 on the river and check behind if he checks. EV=625/hand

Raising looks like the much better play if he doesn't have an ace.

Assuming EV200 is average since this is when you and your opponent play correctly. Calling costs you T100/hand and raising gains you T425/hand.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

the only problem with that is, so many new people do not understand "implied odds" and whatnot, and will call on a draw when they shouldn't....