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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > Understand Variance

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Old 01-08-2008, 03:09 PM
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Default Understand Variance

I was just wondering how many people actually know the math behind variance and why it happens.

Lets take flipping a coin as an example. 50% of the time it will land heads and 50% of the time it lands tails.

The chances of it landing X amount on times on the same side is the chance of the first time times the chance of the second time or chance^x amount of times.


So the chances of it landing heads ten times in a row is (1/2)^10. That equals 1 times out of 1024 times. So if you flip a coin 10 times in a row, 1024 times, one time you should get all heads.

So lets say you did this and you get heads 9 times in a row. What are the chances of you getting it that 10th time? 1/2 or 1/512( I got this number from the difference between (1/2)^9 and (1/2)^10.


Well the answer to this problem is quite simple. Each flip of the coin is totally independent. So when you feel like the bad beats keeping coming just remember that each one is independent. Don't take them personally.
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Old 01-08-2008, 03:15 PM
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Yeah, fuck variance, power to the people, wooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
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Old 01-08-2008, 05:48 PM
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Okay so if you flip 10 times 1024 times in a row it comes out all heads at least once, what do you do when if comes out all heads like 500 out of the 1024 times??? (besides shoot yourself)
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Old 01-08-2008, 08:48 PM
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....W EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEE....................PLOP. Go have a drink at the Limerick

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Old 01-08-2008, 09:27 PM
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ok, I just flipped over a quarter 1024 times and didn't get heads ten times in a row. Bad beat, or should I be trying this with a nickel?
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Old 01-08-2008, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by willjim View Post
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....W EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEE....................PLOP. Go have a drink at the Limerick

Didn't realize trolls were allowed.
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRE8R View Post
Okay so if you flip 10 times 1024 times in a row it comes out all heads at least once, what do you do when if comes out all heads like 500 out of the 1024 times??? (besides shoot yourself)
Check if POTRIPPER is at your table?

I really need to stop using that.
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:14 AM
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then there is varience in the varience and varience in that varience... and so on. probability will unfortunately never be finite.
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:35 AM
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Didn't realize trolls were allowed.
Sorry, Thought you were from Antioch, Il.
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Old 01-09-2008, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by WeakTight View Post
then there is varience in the varience and varience in that varience... and so on. probability will unfortunately never be finite.
in a strange way, i kinda miss Bonch right now....
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