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01-08-2008, 03:09 PM
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Poker Professional
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,506
Limits Played: Play Money
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Understand Variance
I was just wondering how many people actually know the math behind variance and why it happens.
Lets take flipping a coin as an example. 50% of the time it will land heads and 50% of the time it lands tails.
The chances of it landing X amount on times on the same side is the chance of the first time times the chance of the second time or chance^x amount of times.
So the chances of it landing heads ten times in a row is (1/2)^10. That equals 1 times out of 1024 times. So if you flip a coin 10 times in a row, 1024 times, one time you should get all heads.
So lets say you did this and you get heads 9 times in a row. What are the chances of you getting it that 10th time? 1/2 or 1/512( I got this number from the difference between (1/2)^9 and (1/2)^10.
Well the answer to this problem is quite simple. Each flip of the coin is totally independent. So when you feel like the bad beats keeping coming just remember that each one is independent. Don't take them personally.
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iif u raise my raise one more ****ing time i will come over there and slit ur throat
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01-08-2008, 03:15 PM
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Super Moderator
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 6,520
Limits Played: $0.50-$1 NL
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Yeah, fuck variance, power to the people, wooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
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01-08-2008, 05:48 PM
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NL20 Grinder...
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 6,979
Limits Played: $0.10-$0.25 NL
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Okay so if you flip 10 times 1024 times in a row it comes out all heads at least once, what do you do when if comes out all heads like 500 out of the 1024 times??? (besides shoot yourself)
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01-08-2008, 08:48 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 351
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....W EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEE....................PLOP. Go have a drink at the Limerick
Last edited by willjim; 01-08-2008 at 08:50 PM.
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01-08-2008, 09:27 PM
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Check Raiser
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: RakeGuard Land
Posts: 778
Limits Played: $0.25-$0.50 NL
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ok, I just flipped over a quarter 1024 times and didn't get heads ten times in a row. Bad beat, or should I be trying this with a nickel?
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01-08-2008, 10:02 PM
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Poker Professional
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,506
Limits Played: Play Money
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willjim
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....W EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEE....................PLOP. Go have a drink at the Limerick
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Didn't realize trolls were allowed.
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Quote:
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iif u raise my raise one more ****ing time i will come over there and slit ur throat
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01-09-2008, 04:09 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Kanadia
Posts: 1,071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRE8R
Okay so if you flip 10 times 1024 times in a row it comes out all heads at least once, what do you do when if comes out all heads like 500 out of the 1024 times??? (besides shoot yourself)
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Check if POTRIPPER is at your table?
I really need to stop using that.
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01-09-2008, 04:14 AM
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Poker Hustler
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Canadia
Posts: 1,139
Limits Played: $0.25-$0.50 NL
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then there is varience in the varience and varience in that varience... and so on. probability will unfortunately never be finite.
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Could god microwave a burrito so hot, that he himself could not eat it?
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01-09-2008, 07:35 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by youngplayer9
Didn't realize trolls were allowed.
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Sorry, Thought you were from Antioch, Il.
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01-09-2008, 10:17 AM
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Super Moderator
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ireland
Posts: 4,708
Limits Played: Play Money
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WeakTight
then there is varience in the varience and varience in that varience... and so on. probability will unfortunately never be finite.
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in a strange way, i kinda miss Bonch right now....
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