Completing the SB

piv · #1 (**permalink**) 01-05-2008, 09:55 PM

KRE8R and I have been having a debate about this and I want some discussion on it... completing the SB with marginal or drawing hands. Just for the sake of it, we'll use two hands, KJo and 45s.

I'm going to make a few assumptions which I think are pretty fair and we can all agree on

-it's a limped pot
-it is at least 3 way, usually 4
-we're looking to hit two pair or better, eg Q33 flop with 34
-a massive draw to stack off with

Say NL25, with the BB and 3 limpers, you've posted the small blind, you're getting 7.3:1 to call. Along with implied odds, this seems pretty attractive, but...

-we're not finishing the action pre flop, BB can still raise, in which case we're almost always folding
-we're going to be OOP for the rest of the hand
-micro limits are looser than hookers, it's a limped pot, so peoples ranges are literally any two cards
-there are sure to be a bunch of other drawing hands in the pot
-people are very passive

Calling pre flop is cheap and gives pretty good odds for when you do hit, but combined with above I can't see it being terribly profitable.

Basically what it comes down to is

-how often do you flop a monster draw, two pair or better? I'm not sure on the maths on this... some help would be good
-you end up playing an unraised multiway pot OOP, I can't think of many more worse things to do
-you are often likely to be up against other draws
-times you flop bottom two to top two, Q33 with 34 against A3 etc

Can some better players shed some light on this?

FaDi · #2 (**permalink**) 01-05-2008, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piv

KRE8R and I have been having a debate about this and I want some discussion on it... completing the SB with marginal or drawing hands. Just for the sake of it, we'll use two hands, KJo-odds of 2cards>J pf =9% and 45s-odds of SC pf=24%,odds of flopping flush draw=11%,hitting draw=39%

I'm going to make a few assumptions which I think are pretty fair and we can all agree on

-it's a limped pot
-it is at least 3 way, usually 4
-we're looking to hit two pair or better, eg Q33 flop with 34
-a massive draw to stack off with

Say NL25, with the BB and 3 limpers, you've posted the small blind, you're getting 7.3:1 to call. Along with implied odds, this seems pretty attractive, but...

-we're not finishing the action pre flop, BB can still raise, in which case we're almost always folding- this is why we have stats, obviously it's bad to complete when the BB is 75/50 compared to 10/4
-we're going to be OOP for the rest of the hand- ya, this is bad
-micro limits are looser than hookers, it's a limped pot, so peoples ranges are literally any two cards- i think this plays to our favor as long as we have the ability to know when we're behind.
-there are sure to be a bunch of other drawing hands in the pot- So we're scared of flush over flush/straight over straight here?
-people are very passive- depends on table

Calling pre flop is cheap and gives pretty good odds for when you do hit, but combined with above I can't see it being terribly profitable.

Basically what it comes down to is

-how often do you flop a monster draw- , two pair or better? I'm not sure on the maths on this... some help would be good
-you end up playing an unraised multiway pot OOP, I can't think of many more worse things to do
-you are often likely to be up against other draws
-times you flop bottom two to top two, Q33 with 34 against A3 etc

Can some better players shed some light on this?

With 2 non-pair cards, the probability of flopping:

• At least a pair (using your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.1/1
• A pair (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.5/1
• Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 49/1
• Any two pair from two non-pair cards - 24/1
• Trips (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 73/1
• A full house (using both of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 1087/1
• Quads (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 9799/1

Poker Odds Chart

Texas Holdem Odds - Probabilities for Poker Hands

I'll post more tomorrow, gotta sleep.

KRE8R · #3 (**permalink**) 01-05-2008, 10:29 PM

According to the odds FaDi put up how big do effective stacks need to be to make it profitable at a 6max table to call something like 56s in SB?

The Real DeCoy · #4 (**permalink**) 01-05-2008, 10:40 PM

When you get a limpfest you also have to take into account that even if you hit your hand you may just take down a small pot when you bet and everyone folds. This is a HUGE factor to consider. I can't tell you the number of times Ive hit a limped 2 pair and won nothing or worse have had someone draw to a bigger hand like a straight or flush.

piv · #5 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Real DeCoy

When you get a limpfest you also have to take into account that even if you hit your hand you may just take down a small pot when you bet and everyone folds. This is a HUGE factor to consider. I can't tell you the number of times Ive hit a limped 2 pair and won nothing or worse have had someone draw to a bigger hand like a straight or flush.

This is what I'm getting at.

RakeGuard.Com · #6 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 01:38 AM

With a few limpers, I've got a wide range of hands I'd call with. It's cheap to see the flop. The chances of the BB raising are really low, so I don't think that should be a factor.

The power of being in the blinds is that no one can really put you on a hand. If you flop 2 pair or a straight, and one of the limpers has an overpair, you will take his stack (unless you're playing on stars because its rigged). He will try his hardest to get you to fold or he will think he's ahead if you bet into him. I think there is enough expected value that you are getting out speculative hands to complete the SB. Word.

davidab157 · #7 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 01:53 AM

The problem is often that raising at this level from SB will not force out the limpers and you'll end up playing a big pot OOP with a marginal hand.

5ive7even · #8 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 02:40 AM

I personally think there isn't anything wrong with limping the sb.

Some of my biggest pots have come from marginal hands in the SB, not to be results-oriented, but as piv stated -- we can sometimes get payed if we hit a decent hand, but lose a big pot if we get a cooler flop. But isn't this the risk of playing any hand?

Personally I raise the sb with 88+ in a limped pot, and limp the sb around anywhere from 65-75% of the time.

piv · #9 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davidab157

The problem is often that raising at this level from SB will not force out the limpers and you'll end up playing a big pot OOP with a marginal hand.

Yes, raising is suicide, its like JJ+ to raise from SB and even then it's marginal if you think you're going to get 2 callers.

Dvaid, you call or fold here?

davidab157 · #10 (**permalink**) 01-06-2008, 03:28 PM

KJo in that spot I'll call. At the limits I play I'm not folding cos they make so many mistakes postflop. Occasionally I'll raise but it depends very much on the opponents.

45s I probably call but a fair amount of the time I'll fold. It depends on whether the opponents are the type to go broke too easily in unraised pots with top pair etc.