I don't remember the SPECIFICS but the old chip leader got sucked out big time, didnt have enough for the bb next hand. The sb is the new chip lead with 5 million and the bb with 1 million. The blinds are about 100k. The button folds and the sb moves all in. The sb was the winner of the 2001 wsop and while the bb an amatuer, he was really in the pro's head. The bb looks down at 10s. Given that first place wins 1 million second 500k and third 250k. What do you do? My answer in white.


Given his nature and any pro's nature, this is an obvious all-in with any two cards. I don't have the time to run out the very detailed numbers so I'll just throw out some rough ones and if you wanna do em, be my guest.
Him holding 2 overs I'd estimate around 15% of the time and u win 50% of these: 8%
Him holding a lower pp is about 5% and estimate u winning 4% there
Him holding an over pp is about 3% and well give all them to him
One over is about 40% and so u get 30% more.
Two unders is the rest(37%) and u win that about 30%

So your total win % is about 75% to double up.

Given assuming the other guy gets knocked out this or next hand. You are about 75% to go in with half the chips he has heads up. Lets say if it were even hed win 60 and u 40 given that you are in his head. Since you won't be even its about 40% * 33% = 15%. So you are 15% to win 500k more and 85% to lose 250k.

Over long number of calls you lose about 100k. This is very close given rough numbers so optimistically u hope for about even.

Paul Phillips did a good analysis of this on his blog . This call loses you about 90k.

He says the only way it is profitable is if Pham and Pham had some kind of a deal to split the difference in prize money between 2nd and 3rd.

I thought it was funny when the guy with the mustach went all-in, and Carlos called, and Kido asked him if he wanted "protection".

The guy looked stricken and said "no, play your hand".

Wow, I'm shocked my answer came as close as his did. 10% difference is damn close!

I asked a friend what he would do and he made a pretty valid point aswell though. He said that if carlos was holding a real hand he would have slowed it down and played it against the amatuer. I argued that he might not because he was playing everything fast and overbet many pots against kido.