OK I know this is a small smaple size, 12k hands, especially for what I'm talking about... but this is really scary... and I cant identify the problem. Around the 9,500 hand mark, something happened, and my "Win" rate is now -3.9/100, before it was 6.1/100. Thats a 10bb swing.

But if you lok at this graph (app available at www.pokertracker.com, need the .NET framework though, which is also available there) you notice a very disturbung trend. You can follow the general slope up towards the peak, then the similar, yet negative slope down. The bottom of the graph is -20 bb's, the top is +200bb.

The only major changes I've noticed is a 3% reduction in VPIP (20% -> 17%), and a .3 reduction in Agression factor (2.6 -> 2.3), just about everything else is the same, comparing the 2 sets of timeframes.

IS this Variance or is there something wrong with me? I know thats a pretty vague question, but I can't seem to figure it out. And no, there are no specific HH's to post, unless you guys want to sift through all 12,000 of them. I can't point ot anything specific, and If I could, I wouldn't be posting this!

EDIT: BTW, this is a graph of Hand # (x-axis) vs Total winnings (y-axis)

OK, as in Beavis' Earlier post, where he asked about Big pairs (TT+)and suited Broadway cards, hands that I kinda refer to as the "Premium Hand Index" (ok ha ha Thats a half joke there). These are cards that are pretty much playable anywhere, and will kinda show a trend in starting hand variance. The weaker broadway cards will also represent other weaker hands not in the index.

Ok, anyways, you should get a PHI hand about 14.2% of the time. During the upward WR trend, I was getting PHI hands about 13.1% of the time, and during the downswing, about 10.2% of the time.

IF (and thats a big IF) thats some indicator of variance, would that explain the downswing?

either NL or limit..this is a normal swing...it just looks bad on a graph...

Ok LImit, but a 100bb downsing. I dunno... just hurts

Originally Posted by dickensaz

i must be stupid because i need someone to direct me to the tournament section of this forum please

eric

First off.... howd this end up in my thread... and second WE HAVE A SECTIOBN TITLED TOURNAMENTS!