I don't know how many of you watched the Borgata Poker Open last night on the WPT, but there was an interesting hand early on. As usual, Mike Sexton gushed about what a great play was made, but I personally don't get it.

There were 6 players at the table. The blinds were 12,000/24,000 with an ante. Daniel Negreanu is the chip leader and is UTG. Josh Arieh is to his immediate left, and he has a decent stack.

Negreanu opens the pot for $60,000 with 22. Arieh has 5 2 offsuit, and he reraises Negreanu to $200,000. Everyone else folds back to Negreanu, and after thinking a bit, he releases his hand.

Ok... so Arieh made a successful bluff. But was it a great bluff? That's what I'm scratching my head about. Here's my analysis.

Negreanu has an image of being slightly loose and aggressive. He could be raising with a wide range of hands, but he is UTG, so you have to give him credit for something. Unfavorable factor.

Arieh is also loose and aggressive. He is capable of making move like this. If I'm Arieh, can I count on the other players respecting my raise? I don't think so. Unfavorable factor.

Negreanu is the chip leader. Unfavorable factor.

Although Arieh has position on Negreanu, there are 4 other players left to act, including Phil Ivey (who just reraised Arieh all in on on his bluff with 75s on the previous hand), and David Williams (with a big stack). If you don't want to get called, it seems like these are big unfavorable factors.

Finally, my recollection is that the $200,000 bet was about 25% of Arieh's stack. If called or raised, Arieh is obviously done betting here. Other than a fold, the next best case scenario for Arieh would have been simply a call and then a miracle flop. Lots of unfavorable factors here.

So what's going on here? I'm not trying to start a thread like, "is Gus Hansen brilliant or crazy?" Rather, I'd like to hear thoughts about tournament strategy. Let's assume that players only make plays that they believe have a positive expected value. What makes this a positive expected value play? Stated differently, what about these circumstances made this the right move, in the right position, with the right cards, to try and steal a pot?

The key factor is probably Negreanu.

Arieh suspects Negreanu is weak (and may have a good read to that effect).

He therefore is fairly certain that Negreanu will fold to his raise.

This leaves the other 4 players.

For them to call they have got to not only believe they have Arieh beat (and can either outdraw or bet him off the pot) but also that Negreanu who will still be to act is beat as well. If they do call or raise they are also increasing the likelihood that Negreanu will stay in as the odds will be improved by the extra chips in the pot. Given that these are the two big stacks, the easy thing to do is get out of the way unless you have a monster and let them sort it out.

All of which doesn't make it a great play but may explain some of the thinking.

Originally Posted by Kliph

I think that Arieh must have had some kind of a read on Daniel. . . . Who ended up winning? I didn't watch the whole thing.

I thought about Arieh possibly having a read, too, but that still doesn't add up for me, either.

First, how good a read could it have been? Negreanu made about a pot size bet UTG. If you were the chip leader, were UTG at a 6 player table, and had pocket Aces, isn't that exactly the bet that you would have made?

Second, even if you have the strength of Negreanu's hand right, there are still 4 players behind you left to act. How can you be so confident that there isn't someone acting behind you with a hand worth entering the pot? The player that I'd be most concerned about is actually the short stack at the table, who may very well figure that he is now getting the right price to go all in with.


In any event, I didn't see much of the rest of the tournament. All of these huge poker issues made me sleepy. But I'm pretty sure that Negreanu won it all. I'm hoping that the show will be re-run because I'd really like to watch it. Negreanu, Ivey, and Williams are among my favorite players.

Originally Posted by Cleveland OH B&M

This makes me LOL every time "He has a Real hand,wired 3's" after someone puts in a raise

That annoys the hell out of me, how else are you going to have a pair pre-flop?

"He has a wierd pocket pair of threes in the hole!"