Wondering if someone can help me here, I'm pretty new to pokerstove but I'm wanting to improve my knowledge of equity vs opponents ranges in specific situations.

Say we're at a NL50 6max table on the button. We have a fair few hands on all of the table and we are playing a solid TAG game running something like 19/15/3 stats.

Villain, MP, is 20/16/4 over 1k hands (some from this session, most from datamining). He's a solid player but no superstar and definitely makes mistakes post-flop. We feel we are probably better with hand reading and general postflop ability.

Hand goes as follows:

Hero is Button with

UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds.

Flop (pot $4.25)

MP bets $3 - Villain thought for a few seconds but nothing too apparent. This is the standard cbet size he generally goes with.
Hero ????

Pokerstove thoughts:

This is the preflop raise range I'm giving the villain (it's fairly similar to mine I suppose, but that's what I'm basing the numbers on really):

{ 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, QcTc, QsTs, JcTc, JsTs, Jc9c, Js9s, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc8c, Ts8s, 98s, 9c7c, 9s7s, 87s, 8c6c, 8s6s, 76s, 7c5c, 65s, ATo+, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9s, As9d, As9h, Ac8h, Ad8c, Ah8c, Ah8s, As8c, As8d, As8h, KTo+, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, QcTd, QdTc, QhTc, QhTd, QsTc }

If we assume he has a cbet % of 65% but that he will bet 75%+ in this spot (being a fairly dry flop) I can pick out a (very rough) cbetting range on this flop. I'm aware that he is more likely to bet with a hand that hits that flop but I don't want to be here for hours doing the maths and there are a fair few hands here that he will check knowing I will likely lead out if I smell weakness from him. Hopefully this assumption doesn't scew the numbers too much.

Obv exact hands will differ, but for this situation I've picked the obvious ones with some random ones too and I've altered it so not every combination of hand is selected to account for him not always betting that particular hand

So the cbet range I pick out is something like this:

{ AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK-QQ, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, TT-99, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, 8h8s, 7c7d, 7c7h, 7h7s, 6d6h, 5c5s, 5d5s, ATs+, KcQc, KsQs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 7c6c, 7s6s, AJo+, AcTs, AhTc, AhTs, AsTc, AsTh, KJo+, QcJd, QcJh, QdJh, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh, JcTd, JcTh, JdTh, JhTc, JhTs, JsTc, JsTd }

My equity vs this range is basically 40% (apparently). Based on this information, is the best play on the flop to raise or call*? I'm assuming this equity is based on us seeing all 5 cards and so we can't necessarily take that value to work with?

The reason I use this particular example is I tend to get myself into these situations where I will call the flop bet, miss the turn and fold to him betting again a large proportion of the time. The amount of times this has happened is leading me to believe calling the flop just isn't a great play. I know I'm getting the implied odds to draw on the flop but not when he bets again on the turn.

PLEASE, if I am interpreting Pokerstove wrong, please tell me and give me some clue as to how to do it. I'm planning on trying a whole bunch of different situations to improve my "equity vs range" ideas.

Loooooooooooooooooooong post

If this makes no sense, just tell me to shut up!

* didn't mean to put fold in originally

Your best option is always to raise, unless his PFR and/or cbet % is very low meaning he will probably have top pair to bet .
Your equity vs his range if 40% if hand is played to conclusion.

To see whether a raise is +EV we want to determine what % of the hands he bets will call (or raise) if we make our raise.

Alot of hands which are ahead of us such as AT/66 will probably fold to a raise. If for example you were going to raise to $7.25 (I know you wouldn't but it makes maths easy) you see will he fold over 50% of the hands he cbets? If the answer is yes a raise is profitable with any 2 cards purely on bluffing equity.
You'd then have equity against all the hands he cals with given your OESD but realistically you can't analyse every possible outcome based on your equity for each part of his range.

Hope this helps a little.

Originally Posted by OrionPro

+1 for David creating the thread
+1 for Wotas reply

cause I've been wondering the same

maybe even against weak-tight nit the play is profitable. Suppose he has AA every time here, he might give us a freebie so we see both the turn and river. He surely calls a $10 value bet somewhere when we make the straight, which will make it breakeven or better.

BTW, is there a way to directly get the c-bet % via HUD?

If you use PAHUD you can put any stats you want on the table from your poker tracker. I use 9 stats. VPIP, PFR, AF, Hands played, BB/100, C Bet %, calls c Bet %, raises c bet % and bets river %.

Thanks for the help guys.

When I was going through his ranges and whatnot it did become pretty apparent to me that the best play was to raise, something I never really did in the past. Obv I wasn't folding but I think I spewed a fair few chips just constantly calling here.