Ok it's not that advanced, but I still need confirmation from you guys.

Ok so i was watching High Stakes Poker and I think the pot was unraised preflop. Anyways this guy with an open end straight draw and flush draw went all in on the flop. Everyone folds to this one guy who has top pair and a flush draw. He thinks for a little bit and calls. Then it seemed like everyone at the table said he took too long to call because it was an obvious call. So here I am sitting there thinking "it was an obvious call?". Even if he thought the other guy had trips he would still hafta call? So i try and figure this out, why is it an obvious call. Is top pair with a flush draw that big that you call no matter what?

So I pull out my calculater and begin the these simple calculations cause I am to lazy to do it in my head.

If you have top pair with flush draw and you put him on either, two pair, trips or bluff. In this hand he could not have flopped a straight btw.
So you give him
50% chance of having trips, = you have 3 outs? 2 outs for you making a higher set and 1 out for you hitting your runner runner full house of your kicker assuming your kicker is higher than his set. So 3 outs= 13% winning on turn or river. .5*.13= 7%

40% chance of having two pair = 11 outs = .40*.42=17%

10% on a bluff you have about 95% chance of winning = .10*.95=10%
So add them up equals a total of 34% Chance of winning this hand if you put them on any of the above. And I would rather be safe than sorry so in this situation I would. Of course knowing the player is tight would help too. I realize if I remember the exact this would be a lot easier to understand what I'm trying to say but I alreayd wrote all this out. So anways if my pot odds are 30% as well it is a must call. However if the all in is double the pot making my pot odds 1 to 1 (50%) I should not call right? Shit I hope I didn't confuse you all. Btw the above calculations was taking from Dan Harrington on calculating Preflop all in decisions. I don';t see any problem with using it on the flop.

ooppss sorry I miscalculated for the trips part. You actually have 11 outs if he has trips. so in total 17+17+10= 44% So you call with pot odds of 1-to-2.2 or better right? That's messed so if you have 11 outs on a flop your pretty much committed unless the guy gives you pot odds worse than 45%?????????

I remember the hand you are talking about but can't remember the exact details.
Either post both hole cards, exact flop and exact stack sizes and bet sizes or tell me what episode the hand was in since I can't remember and I will answer.

It was in episode 9 of series 3 Wota - about 8 minutes in.

Oh yeah it's more than 11 outs now that I see the hand. Ok so basically the all in is 97K plus the pot 9.1K, odds of hitting are about the same. Ok i get it, man it's so simple damn. Wow I would be sitting there trying to figure this all out but the pros really know their sh*t it's like instant decision. Yeah I have a need to understand why hands are played like that, cuz i know in the long run I will improve a lot faster. Thanks for the help guys.

I beat him to the pot with AJd, tptk with nut FD = nuts







EDIT - I have a feeling the OP will come back and say that it isn't the nuts. I know but it's so sexy its as good as!